16 Giant Killer candidates who still have work to do
16 Giant Killer candidates who still have work to do
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It's Giant Killer heartbreak season.
All season long we've tracked these under-the-radar teams, trying to identify the right underdogs to pick in our bracket. And then in the blink of a conference tournament eye, the dream can be crushed in a single 40-minute span before Selection Sunday has even begun.
A year ago, our model fawned over Vermont, and then I jinxed the Catamountsas they entered their conference tournament final against UMBC. No, it wasn't UMBC's biggest surprise victory last March, but we did give Vermont a 92 percent chance to win the game. And then it lost like this.
Today we're looking at 2019 first-round Giant Killer candidates who still have work to do to get into the tournament. We're considering any team with between a 35 and 90 percent chance to earn a berth and are ranking them based on their average chance of defeating their first-round opponents (see accompanying note). In other words, if you're rooting for first-round chaos, this is your conference tournament priority list. All projections are entering Monday's games.
1. Lipscomb
Chance to reach NCAA tournament: 52 percent, BPI projected seed: 11.2
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 33 percent
Lipscomb is our top-ranked Giant Killer that is still on the bubble. We've highlighted Casey Alexander's team before as a leading Giant Killer contender and that remains true, in part due to the Bisons' well-rounded team quality and in part because they will earn a relatively strong seed should they get into the tournament.
That remains no guarantee. While the College Basketball Power Index (BPI) considers Lipscomb the best team in the Atlantic Sun, Liberty -- another Giant Killing candidate -- is hot on its heels. BPI believes the conference tournament is essentially a 50-50 proposition between the two teams.
In the NCAA tournament, our model gives the Bisons the best shot against Kansas State among its realistic opponents, with a 43 percent shot to win thanks to a large edge in offensive 2-point efficiency.
2. Vermont (74 percent, 11.5)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 29 percent
The odds are in Vermont's favor in the conference tournament. But as we covered in the intro, that was also true last season.
I'll admit, our love for Vermont this season caught me a little off guard. For starters, Vermont is the rare team that fosters sizable disagreement in rank between KenPom (which has the Catamounts 88th) and BPI (61st). Part of that difference might be due to a solid preseason prior from BPI (after all, we did like those Catamounts last season). And on top of that, our Giant Killers model tends to like Vermont a shade more than BPI against its likely tournament opponents.
That's based on a combination of factors, but Vermont's biggest offensive strength is its free throw shooting, which the Giant Killers model notes. The Catamounts get to the line at a good clip and knock down their free throws at a 75.6 percent rate, per KenPom. Kansas State is Vermont's best-case scenario, and the Catamounts would have a 41 percent chance to win that particular contest.
3. Murray State (49 percent, 11.4)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 28 percent
Everyone wants this to happen. Ja Morant in the NCAA tournament? Yes please. Realistically, it's Belmont (41 percent chance to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament) that is standing in the way.
The Racers' elite ability to score near the hoop -- based on buckets from Morant and otherwise -- make
them an extremely threatening Giant Killer. Thanks to a dramatic edge in that department, our model gives the Racers a 39 percent shot against (can you guess) Kansas State -- a 5 percent boost over what BPI would estimate in that matchup.
4. Hofstra (51 percent, 12.6)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 24 percent
Hofstra's list of potential opponents is a slightly better group than for the three teams previously, which is part of the reason why it will be a little bit of a longer shot to pull off an upset. Nonetheless, Justin Wright-Foreman is a scoring machine and the Pride operate an efficient offense that hardly ever turns the ball over -- something that catches the eye of the Giant Killers model.
Hofstra's realistic opponent range spans from Marquette (34 percent chance to win) to Virginia Tech (16 percent).
5. Yale (64 percent, 12.5)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 17 percent
Our Northeast tour continues to the Ivy League, where Yale is, by our measure, the best team and especially the best offense.
Like many of the other teams at the top of this list, Yale's offensive strength is via 2-point field goals, though that is offset by the fact that the Bulldogs generally compare less favorably against their potential opponents in ball security, offensive rebounding and free throw shooting. As a result, the Bulldogs don't have to receive any large Giant Killers bumps against particular opponents, and so the range of outcomes in terms of predicted win percentage is lower. Marquette is Yale's best hope; the Bulldogs would have a 21 percent chance to beat the Golden Eagles.
6. South Dakota State (67 percent, 13.2)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 16 percent
South Dakota State has been a staple of our Giant Killers coverage this season. The Jackrabbits boast a 3,000-point scorer in Mike Daum (that 3,000th point came in a big moment against South Dakota, by the way) and collectively are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the nation.
Prospective Giants have to worry not only about Daum scoring down low but also that the Jackrabbits are one of the very best 3-point shooting teams in the country.
The Jackrabbits ought to hope to draw Florida State, against whom they would have a 19 percent chance to win. The Jackrabbits have a significant edge over every other team in the Summit conference.
7. New Mexico State (63.1 percent, 10.8)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 16 percent
The Giant Killers model does not like the Aggies. Strictly by team performance, New Mexico State seems like a decent outfit. But when we dig into the box-score stats and see that a team that is poor at 3-point shooting chucks incessantly from beyond the arc, that isn't going to please our number-crunching machine. So our model here is much more pessimistic about the Aggies than BPI against most opponents.
The Aggies would have a 27 percent chance against Kansas State but just a 7 percent shot if they faced Nevada.
8. UC Irvine (58 percent, 11.6)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 14 percent
This is the best team in the Big West by both record and BPI. UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Fullerton have a shot, but we make the Anteaters better than a 50-50 proposition to win the conference tourney. Thanks to their defense, the Anteaters would have a chance at a first-round NCAA upset, but they won't be one of our top picks.
9. Liberty (49 percent, 12.3)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 14 percent
Liberty's big problem is Lipscomb. The Flames have traded victories with the Bisons (each won on the opponent's court), but the third showdown will be the one that really matters. Any prospective Giants out there ought to be pulling for Liberty, since it isn't quite the threat that Lipscomb is.
10. Northern Kentucky (45 percent, 13.3)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 12 percent
The Norse have taken a little dip since we highlighted Drew McDonald, but they still could be a frisky team against the right opponent (according to our model, that right opponent is LSU). Wright State poses the biggest challenge to the Norse in the Horizon League tournament.
We've entered near non-factor territory now -- so don't be too distraught if Montana is derailed by, say, Northern Colorado in the Big Sky tournament. Or if any of the other teams noted at No. 12 and beyond -- who are unlikely to cause any disruption in the NCAA tournament -- fall in their respective conference tournaments.
11. Montana (49 percent, 13.6)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 7 percent
12. Colgate (49 percent, 14.1)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 5 percent
13. Texas Southern (50 percent, 14.7)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 3 percent
14. Abilene Christian (53 percent, 14.6)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 3 percent
15. St. Francis (Pennsylvania) (39 percent, 15.7)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 1 percent
16. Norfolk State (36 percent, 15.8)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 1 percent
Note: A range of possible opponents was considered based on each team's BPI projected seed. For example, if a potential Giant Killer is projected to be a No. 12 seed, all teams that projected between a No. 4 and No. 6 seed were considered as possible opponents. The potential Giant Killer's chance to beat its first-round opponent is derived from that team's average chance to win against all of those possible opponents. Only seeding pairings in which the underdog would be considered a Giant Killer (five seed lines below the favorite) were considered. Though not the most sophisticated method -- there is certainly a better chance of some teams meeting than others -- it did serve as a solid estimate for each team's overall NCAA tournament upset chance.
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Giant Killer heartbreak season.
All season long we've tracked these under-the-radar teams, trying to identify the right underdogs to pick in our bracket. And then in the blink of a conference tournament eye, the dream can be crushed in a single 40-minute span before Selection Sunday has even begun.
A year ago, our model fawned over Vermont, and then I jinxed the Catamountsas they entered their conference tournament final against UMBC. No, it wasn't UMBC's biggest surprise victory last March, but we did give Vermont a 92 percent chance to win the game. And then it lost like this.
Today we're looking at 2019 first-round Giant Killer candidates who still have work to do to get into the tournament. We're considering any team with between a 35 and 90 percent chance to earn a berth and are ranking them based on their average chance of defeating their first-round opponents (see accompanying note). In other words, if you're rooting for first-round chaos, this is your conference tournament priority list. All projections are entering Monday's games.
1. Lipscomb Chance to reach NCAA tournament: 52 percent, BPI projected seed: 11.2
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 33 percent
Lipscomb is our top-ranked Giant Killer that is still on the bubble. We've highlighted Casey Alexander's team before as a leading Giant Killer contender and that remains true, in part due to the Bisons' well-rounded team quality and in part because they will earn a relatively strong seed should they get into the tournament.
That remains no guarantee. While the College Basketball Power Index (BPI) considers Lipscomb the best team in the Atlantic Sun, Liberty -- another Giant Killing candidate -- is hot on its heels. BPI believes the conference tournament is essentially a 50-50 proposition between the two teams.
In the NCAA tournament, our model gives the Bisons the best shot against Kansas State among its realistic opponents, with a 43 percent shot to win thanks to a large edge in offensive 2-point efficiency.
2. Vermont (74 percent, 11.5)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 29 percent
The odds are in Vermont's favor in the conference tournament. But as we covered in the intro, that was also true last season.
I'll admit, our love for Vermont this season caught me a little off guard. For starters, Vermont is the rare team that fosters sizable disagreement in rank between KenPom (which has the Catamounts 88th) and BPI (61st). Part of that difference might be due to a solid preseason prior from BPI (after all, we did like those Catamounts last season). And on top of that, our Giant Killers model tends to like Vermont a shade more than BPI against its likely tournament opponents.
That's based on a combination of factors, but Vermont's biggest offensive strength is its free throw shooting, which the Giant Killers model notes. The Catamounts get to the line at a good clip and knock down their free throws at a 75.6 percent rate, per KenPom. Kansas State is Vermont's best-case scenario, and the Catamounts would have a 41 percent chance to win that particular contest.
3. Murray State (49 percent, 11.4)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 28 percent
Everyone wants this to happen. Ja Morant in the NCAA tournament? Yes please. Realistically, it's Belmont (41 percent chance to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament) that is standing in the way.
The Racers' elite ability to score near the hoop -- based on buckets from Morant and otherwise -- make
them an extremely threatening Giant Killer. Thanks to a dramatic edge in that department, our model gives the Racers a 39 percent shot against (can you guess) Kansas State -- a 5 percent boost over what BPI would estimate in that matchup.
4. Hofstra (51 percent, 12.6)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 24 percent
Hofstra's list of potential opponents is a slightly better group than for the three teams previously, which is part of the reason why it will be a little bit of a longer shot to pull off an upset. Nonetheless, Justin Wright-Foreman is a scoring machine and the Pride operate an efficient offense that hardly ever turns the ball over -- something that catches the eye of the Giant Killers model.
Hofstra's realistic opponent range spans from Marquette (34 percent chance to win) to Virginia Tech (16 percent).
5. Yale (64 percent, 12.5)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 17 percent
Our Northeast tour continues to the Ivy League, where Yale is, by our measure, the best team and especially the best offense.
Like many of the other teams at the top of this list, Yale's offensive strength is via 2-point field goals, though that is offset by the fact that the Bulldogs generally compare less favorably against their potential opponents in ball security, offensive rebounding and free throw shooting. As a result, the Bulldogs don't have to receive any large Giant Killers bumps against particular opponents, and so the range of outcomes in terms of predicted win percentage is lower. Marquette is Yale's best hope; the Bulldogs would have a 21 percent chance to beat the Golden Eagles.
6. South Dakota State (67 percent, 13.2)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 16 percent
South Dakota State has been a staple of our Giant Killers coverage this season. The Jackrabbits boast a 3,000-point scorer in Mike Daum (that 3,000th point came in a big moment against South Dakota, by the way) and collectively are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the nation.
Prospective Giants have to worry not only about Daum scoring down low but also that the Jackrabbits are one of the very best 3-point shooting teams in the country.
The Jackrabbits ought to hope to draw Florida State, against whom they would have a 19 percent chance to win. The Jackrabbits have a significant edge over every other team in the Summit conference.
7. New Mexico State (63.1 percent, 10.8)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 16 percent
The Giant Killers model does not like the Aggies. Strictly by team performance, New Mexico State seems like a decent outfit. But when we dig into the box-score stats and see that a team that is poor at 3-point shooting chucks incessantly from beyond the arc, that isn't going to please our number-crunching machine. So our model here is much more pessimistic about the Aggies than BPI against most opponents.
The Aggies would have a 27 percent chance against Kansas State but just a 7 percent shot if they faced Nevada.
8. UC Irvine (58 percent, 11.6)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 14 percent
This is the best team in the Big West by both record and BPI. UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Fullerton have a shot, but we make the Anteaters better than a 50-50 proposition to win the conference tourney. Thanks to their defense, the Anteaters would have a chance at a first-round NCAA upset, but they won't be one of our top picks.
9. Liberty (49 percent, 12.3)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 14 percent
Liberty's big problem is Lipscomb. The Flames have traded victories with the Bisons (each won on the opponent's court), but the third showdown will be the one that really matters. Any prospective Giants out there ought to be pulling for Liberty, since it isn't quite the threat that Lipscomb is.
10. Northern Kentucky (45 percent, 13.3)Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 12 percent
The Norse have taken a little dip since we highlighted Drew McDonald, but they still could be a frisky team against the right opponent (according to our model, that right opponent is LSU). Wright State poses the biggest challenge to the Norse in the Horizon League tournament.
We've entered near non-factor territory now -- so don't be too distraught if Montana is derailed by, say, Northern Colorado in the Big Sky tournament. Or if any of the other teams noted at No. 12 and beyond -- who are unlikely to cause any disruption in the NCAA tournament -- fall in their respective conference tournaments.
11. Montana (49 percent, 13.6)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 7 percent
12. Colgate (49 percent, 14.1)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 5 percent
13. Texas Southern (50 percent, 14.7)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 3 percent
14. Abilene Christian (53 percent, 14.6)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 3 percent
15. St. Francis (Pennsylvania) (39 percent, 15.7)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 1 percent
16. Norfolk State (36 percent, 15.8)
Average chance to beat first-round opponent: 1 percent
Note: A range of possible opponents was considered based on each team's BPI projected seed. For example, if a potential Giant Killer is projected to be a No. 12 seed, all teams that projected between a No. 4 and No. 6 seed were considered as possible opponents. The potential Giant Killer's chance to beat its first-round opponent is derived from that team's average chance to win against all of those possible opponents. Only seeding pairings in which the underdog would be considered a Giant Killer (five seed lines below the favorite) were considered. Though not the most sophisticated method -- there is certainly a better chance of some teams meeting than others -- it did serve as a solid estimate for each team's overall NCAA tournament upset chance.