AlphaPatterns - NCAAB Edition

[omega]

I know there's only two weeks left, but I'm creating a thread here to document a system I've been working on. I'm not necessarily playing all of these, tail or fade as you want, it's more to keep some type of record of what I've been working on. The percentages are the strength of the plays.

2/15/17

ATS PLAYS

85-90%
NC State +11

80-85%
Maryland +2
SMU -24

75-80%
Creighton +1
Samford +11.5

70-75%
Georgia Tech +10
Wofford +3

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
NC State Over 168.5

75-80%
Tulane Over 136
Umass Over 154.5
Temple Over 132
St. Johns Over 151

UNDER PLAYS

75-80%
Cincinnnati Under 133
Creighton Under 147.5

70-75%
Illinois State Under 131

[omega]

2/15/17

ATS PLAYS

85-90%
NC State +11 - LOSS (-14 pt margin)

80-85%
Maryland +2 - WIN (+11 pt margin)
SMU -24 - LOSS (-20 pt margin)

75-80%
Creighton +1 - LOSS (-7 pt margin)
Samford +11.5 - WIN (+9.5 pt margin)

70-75%
Georgia Tech +10 - WIN (0 pt margin)
Wofford +3 - LOSS (-16 pt margin)

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
NC State Over 168.5 - WIN (+1 pt margin)

75-80%
Tulane Over 136 - WIN (+18 pt margin)
Umass Over 154.5 WIN (+6.5 pt margin)
Temple Over 132 WIN (+9 pt margin)
St. Johns Over 151 - WIN (+44 pt margin)

UNDER PLAYS

75-80%
Cincinnnati Under 133 WIN (+10 pt margin)
Creighton Under 147.5 - LOSS (-21 pt margin)

70-75%
Illinois State Under 131 - LOSS (-3 pt margin)

Fully updated.

ATS PLAYS

85-90%
0-1 (-14 pt average margin)

80-85%
1-0 (+11 pt average margin)
0-1 (-20 pt average margin)

75-80%
1-0 (+9.5 pt average margin)
0-1 (-7 pt average margin

70-75%
1-0 (1pt average margin)
0-1 (-16 pt average margin)

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
1-0 (+1 pt average margin)

75-80%
4-0 (+19.375 pt average margin)

UNDER PLAYS

75-80%
1-0 (+10 pt average margin)
0-1 (-21 pt average margin)

70-75%
0-1 (-3 pt average margin)

-------------------
A couple notes: ATS performance is unimpressive. I thought SMU -24 was insane, but followed the system.

Second: the Overs performed 5-0 with win margins of 1, 18, 6.5, 9, & 44.

Unders were unimpressive.

I will attempt to keep this thread updated.

[Notorious_Donk]

What up omega. Do you have past results from this system?

[omega]

What up omega. Do you have past results from this system?

This is brand new. I don't play all of them, but have been playing some Over plays.

[Notorious_Donk]

This is brand new. I don't play all of them, but have been playing some Over plays.

5 for 5 doesn't look bad! Rest of the season is a small sample size but i'm interested to see the results

[omega]

2/16/17

ATS PLAYS

90-95%
San Diego +15.5

85-90%
Utah +9.5
Marshall -3
Morehead State +1
Siena -10
Arizona -12.5

80-85%
Marshall -3
College of Charleston -1.5
Wright State -5

75-80%
Florida Atlantic +13
Gonzaga -22.5

70-75%
Elon +1.5
Florida Intl -1.5

OVER PLAYS

75-80%
Wisconsin @ Michigan Over 127.5

UNDER PLAYS

100%
Hawaii @ UCSB Under 131.5

75-80%
San Diego @ BYU Under 144.5

==================================

Note: Be very careful on the Hawaii/UCSB Under. Books have adjusted this number way down intentionally.

Additionally, UAB @ Marshall -3 is emerging on my system twice. When two patterns overlap within a game, that is a good sign. I would say this is a strong play.

Additionally, I would say San Diego +15.5 on the road is a strong play. Their defensive numbers do not change on the road, and their offensive numbers actually improve. At home against BYU on January 14th, they were 10.5 dogs and won by 13 points. There are other games where they were dogs and actually ended up winning. Be careful with the under play however.

[omega]

2/16/17

ATS PLAYS

90-95%
San Diego +15.5 - WIN(+3 pt margin)

85-90%
Utah +9.5 - LOSS(-9 pt margin)
Marshall -3 - WIN(+11 pt margin)
Morehead State +1 - LOSS(-12 pt margin)
Manhattan +10 - LOSS(-14pt margin)
Arizona -12.5 - WIN(+6 pt margin)

80-85%
Marshall -3 - WIN(+11 pt margin)
College of Charleston -1.5 - WIN (+2 pt margin)
Wright State -5 - LOSS(-3 pt margin)

75-80%
Florida Atlantic +13 - LOSS(-14 pt margin)
Gonzaga -22.5 - WIN(+12 pt margin)

70-75%
Elon +1.5 - LOSS(-18 pt margin)
Florida Intl -1.5 - LOSS(-5 pt margin)

OVER PLAYS

75-80%
Wisconsin @ Michigan Over 127.5 - LOSS (-6 pt margin)

UNDER PLAYS

100%
Hawaii @ UCSB Under 131.5 - WIN(+21 pt margin)

75-80%
San Diego @ BYU Under 144.5 - LOSS(-8 pt margin)

==================================

ATS PLAYS

90-95%
1-0 (+3 pt average margin)

85-90%
2-0 (+8.5 pt average margin)
0-4 (-12.35 pt average margin)

80-85%
3-0 (+8 pt average margin)
0-2 (-11.5 pt average margin)

75-80%
2-0 (+10.75 pt average margin)
0-2 (-10.5 pt average margin)

70-75%
1-0 (1pt average margin)
0-3 (-13 pt average margin)

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
1-0 (+1 pt average margin)

75-80%
4-0 (+19.375 pt average margin)
0-1 (-6 pt average margin)

UNDER PLAYS

100%
1-0 (+21 pt average margin)

75-80%
1-0 (+10 pt average margin)
0-2 (-14.5 pt average margin)

70-75%
0-1 (-3 pt average margin)

---

Fully updated. The one mistake I made was the Siena play, which was supposed to be a fade, making the play Manhattan +10.

Takeaways: Even though the Wisconsin-Michigan Over did not hit, it was pretty close and those are two great defensive teams. I had my own doubts about it and didn't play it.

Other plays need a bigger sample size to fully flesh out which have potential and which show zero patterns. I still have further analysis to do on this system, which involves margins of victory and would really separate the wheat from the chaff, but it is pretty indepth and arduous. I will post tomorrow's plays soon.

[omega]

2/17/17

ATS PLAYS

80-85%
Harvard -8
Fairfield -1.5

75-80%
Arkansas State -7.5

70-75%
Canisius -2.5

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
Fairfield/Quinnipiac Over 159

75-80%
Canisius/Rider Over 158.5

==================================

[Fernburn74]

ThAnks for. San Diego +15.5 yesterday !!!

what is your strongest play tonight.
Thats what I took yesterday and would love to here your expertise on the best one

thank you
goodluck !!!!!

[omega]

ThAnks for. San Diego +15.5 yesterday !!!

what is your strongest play tonight.
Thats what I took yesterday and would love to here your expertise on the best one

thank you
goodluck !!!!!

Glad that worked out for you, Fern. I watched that game and while it was close, San Diego does have some backbone on the road.

Let me just say that I am not terribly impressed with today's lineup at all today. Tomorrow there are gonna be a TON of plays in this system, including some that I will have a LOT of confidence in. So the goal today is just to try to get a win here or there.

That said, I am playing Arkansas State tonight. They are 6-2 at home ATS with ATS winning margins of 10.5, 19.5, 2, 20, 3.5, & 2.5. So maybe buy a point. The 2 that they lost were by -3.5 and -10

Additionally, I think the Quinnipiac Over may have some potential. Those are the only two I would consider tonight. Be careful today and try to steal a win or two, tomorrow is gonna have a TON of good potential.

[omega]

2/17/17

ATS PLAYS

80-85%
Harvard -8 - LOSS(-2 pt margin)
Fairfield -1.5 - WIN(+1.5 pt margin)

75-80%
Arkansas State -7.5 - WIN(+1 pt margin)

70-75%
Canisius -2.5 - WIN(+5 pt margin)

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
Fairfield/Quinnipiac Over 159 - WIN(+16 pt margin)

75-80%
Canisius/Rider Over 158.5 - WIN(+3 pt margin)

==================================

ATS PLAYS

90-95%
1-0 (+3 pt average margin)

85-90%
2-0 (+8.5 pt average margin)
0-4 (-12.35 pt average margin)

80-85%
4-0 (+6.375 pt average margin)
0-3 (-8.3 pt average margin)

75-80%
3-0 (+7.5 pt average margin)
0-2 (-10.5 pt average margin)

70-75%
2-0 (3 pt average margin)
0-3 (-13 pt average margin)

OVER PLAYS

80-85%
2-0 (+8.5 pt average margin)

75-80%
5-0 (+16.1 pt average margin)
0-1 (-6 pt average margin)

UNDER PLAYS

100%
1-0 (+21 pt average margin)

75-80%
1-0 (+10 pt average margin)
0-2 (-14.5 pt average margin)

70-75%
0-1 (-3 pt average margin)

-------------------------------------

We got lucky with the Fairfield game going to OT. Aside from that, decent results, although the margins are rather small. There are going to be a lot of plays tomorrow from this system. I'll post them soon.

[shopbar picks]

What time will your plays be posted for Saturday? Looks like you are having some success. Thanks for sharing

[omega]

What time will your plays be posted for Saturday? Looks like you are having some success. Thanks for sharing

I'm working on them now, I'll probably do it sometime tonight since first games start early tomorrow.

[omega]

11:00 AM -1:00 PM GAMES

85-90%
Notre Dame @ North Carolina State Over 157.5
St. Louis @ Fordham Under 122.5

75-80%
Kansas @ Baylor Under 144.5
Florida -10.5 @ Mississippi State
South Florida +5.5 @ Tulane

70-75%
Clemson +3.5 @ Miami (FL)
Davidson @ UMASS Under 148
Villanova @ Seton Hall Under 137
Kansas @ Baylor Under 144.5

----------------------------------------------------

I'm posting the 11:00 AM - 1:00 PM games right now. Out of them, off the top of my head, I would say Notre Dame/NC State Over is a strong play. The Kansas/Baylor Under is coming up on my system TWICE, on both sides, so I would say that is a potentially strong play as well. Books have made the St. Louis under the lowest out of all their games. I'll have more later.

[omega]

95-100%
Eastern Michigan/Western Michigan Over 149

85-90%
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.5
Ball State @ Central Michigan Over 177.5
Western Illinois/North Dakota State Over 136

80-85%
NC Wilmington -5.5 @ Hofstra

75-80%
Michigan State @ Purdue -10
Pacific @ Gonzaga -30.5
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -7.5

70-75%
Furman -6.5 @ NC Greensboro
Florida Atlantic -4 @ Southern Mississippi

[omega]

2/18/17

------------

95-100%
CS Long Beach @ UC Santa Barbara Under 137.5 * 6:00 PM
Tennessee Tech @ Jacksonville State Under 137 * 7:00 PM

90-95%
San Diego +11 @ Santa Clara ATS * 10:00 PM

85-90%
VMI @ Samford Over 157 * 6:00 PM
Arizona -9.5 @ Washington 7:00 PM
Middle Tennessee State @ Marshall +6.5
VMI +11.5 @ Samford * 6:00 PM

80-85%
Missouri State @ Drake Over 145.5 South Dakota State @ IPFW Over 164 * 6:00 PM
Mississippi +5.5 @ Arkansas
Charlotte @ Old Dominion -9.5 * 6:00 PM

75-80%
Western Carolina @ Wofford -12 * 6:00 PM
Saint Mary's @ BYU Under 141 * 9:00 PM

70-75%
Northern Kentucky -5.5 @ Youngstown State * 6:00 PM
Cornell @ Harvard -10.5 * 6:00 PM
CS Long Beach @ UCSB +7.5 * 6:00 PM
Western Carolina @ Wofford -12 * 6:00 PM
SMU @ Houston Under 129
Rutgers @ Northwestern Under 129.5 * 5:00 PM
Niagara +8.5 @ Siena * 7:00 PM
Virginia @ North Carolina Under 136 * 7:15 PM
Eastern Kentucky +7 @ Tennessee State * 7:30 PM
Northern Colorado +1 @ Idaho State * 8:05 PM
Hawaii +3.5 @ Cal Poly Slo * 9:00 PM
UC Davis @ CS Fullerton Under 141.5 * 9:30 PM

[nosaij]

you are on to something here Omega, thanks for your work

[Professor1215]

This is a fantastic thread, nicely done.

[Jchef]

Great read and information, anything today

[omega]

11:00 AM -1:00 PM GAMES

ATS PLAYS

75-80%
Florida -10.5 @ Mississippi State - LOSS(-5.5 pt margin)
South Florida +5.5 @ Tulane - LOSS(-17.5 pt margin)

70-75%
Clemson +3.5 @ Miami (FL) - LOSS(-2.5 pt margin)

OVER PLAYS

85-90%
Notre Dame @ North Carolina State Over 157.5 - LOSS(-4.5 pt margin)

UNDER PLAYS

85-90%
St. Louis @ Fordham Under 122.5 - WIN(+28.5 pt margin)

75-80%
Kansas @ Baylor Under 144.5 - WIN(+12.5 pt margin)

70-75%
Davidson @ UMASS Under 148 - LOSS(-5 pt margin)
Villanova @ Seton Hall Under 137 - LOSS(-25 pt margin)
Kansas @ Baylor Under 144.5 - WIN(+12.5 pt margin)

Updated games here. Full rankings updates coming.

[omega]

ATS PLAYS

85-90%
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan -2.5 - WIN(+5.5 pt margin)

80-85%
NC Wilmington -5.5 @ Hofstra - WIN(+1.5 pt margin)

75-80%
Michigan State @ Purdue -10 - WIN(+7 pt margin)
Pacific @ Gonzaga -30.5 - LOSS(-9.5 pt margin)
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -7.5 - WIN(+6.5 pt margin)

70-75%
Furman -6.5 @ NC Greensboro - LOSS(-27.5 pt margin)
Florida Atlantic -4 @ Southern Mississippi - WIN(+8 pt margin)

OVER PLAYS

95-100%
Eastern Michigan/Western Michigan Over 149 -WIN(+28 pt margin)

85-90%
Ball State @ Central Michigan Over 177.5 - WIN(+31.5 pt margin) OT
Western Illinois/North Dakota State Over 136 - WIN(+55 pt margin) 2OT

Updated.

[omega]

2/18/17

ATS PLAYS

90-95%
San Diego +11 @ Santa Clara - WIN(+13 pt margin)

85-90%
Arizona -9.5 @ Washington - LOSS(-2 pt margin)
Middle Tennessee State @ Marshall +6.5 - LOSS(-4.5 pt margin)
VMI +11.5 @ Samford - LOSS(-7.5 pt margin) *

80-85%
Mississippi +5.5 @ Arkansas - LOSS(-12.5 pt margin)
Charlotte @ Old Dominion -9.5 - WIN(+14.5 pt margin)
75-80%
Western Carolina @ Wofford -12 - WIN(+16 pt margin)

70-75%
Northern Kentucky -5.5 @ Youngstown State - LOSS(-9.5 pt margin)
Cornell @ Harvard -10.5 - WIN(+1.5 pt margin)
CS Long Beach @ UCSB +7.5 - LOSS(-10.5 pt margin)
Western Carolina @ Wofford -12 - WIN(+16 pt margin)
Niagara +8.5 @ Siena - WIN(+2.5 pt margin)
Eastern Kentucky +7 @ Tennessee State - WIN(+5 pt margin)
Northern Colorado +1 @ Idaho State - WIN(+7 pt margin) *
Hawaii +3.5 @ Cal Poly Slo - WIN(+24.5 pt margin) *

OVER PLAYS

85-90%
VMI @ Samford Over 157 - LOSS(-16 pt margin)

80-85%
Missouri State @ Drake Over 145.5 - WIN(+3.5 pt margin)
South Dakota State @ IPFW Over 164 - WIN(+22 pt margin)

UNDER PLAYS

95-100%
CS Long Beach @ UC Santa Barbara Under 137.5 - WIN(+23.5 pt margin)
Tennessee Tech @ Jacksonville State Under 137 - LOSS(-20 pt margin)
75-80% Saint Mary's @ BYU Under 141 - WIN(+14 pt margin)

70-75% SMU @ Houston Under 129 - LOSS(-13 pt margin)
Rutgers @ Northwestern Under 129.5 - LOSS(-4.5 pt margin)
Virginia @ North Carolina Under 136 - WIN(+30 pt margin)
UC Davis @ CS Fullerton Under 141.5 - LOSS(-9.5 pt margin)

Updated.

Additions & omissions: UNC -6.5 - WIN(+17.5 pt margin)

[omega]

ATS PLAYS

90-95%
2-0 (+8 pt average margin)

85-90%
3-0 (+7.5 pt average margin)
0-7 (-9.05 pt average margin)

80-85%
6-0 (+6.91 pt average margin)
0-4 (-9.35 pt average margin)

75-80%
6-0 (+8.6 pt average margin)
0-5 (-10.7 pt average margin)

70-75%
10-0 (7.67 pt average margin)
0-7 (-12.7 pt average margin)

OVER PLAYS

95-100%
1-0 (28 pt average margin)

85-90%
1-0 (43.25 pt average margin)
0-2 (10.25 pt average margin)

80-85%
4-0 (+10.625 pt average margin)

75-80%
5-0 (+16.1 pt average margin)
0-1 (-6 pt average margin)

UNDER PLAYS

100%
1-0 (+21 pt average margin)

95-100%
1-0 (+23.5 pt average margin)
0-1 (-20 pt average margin)

85-90%
1-0 (28.5 pt average margin)

75-80%
3-0 (+12.16 pt average margin)
0-2 (-14.5 pt average margin)

70-75%
2-0 (+21.25 pt average margin)
0-6 (-10 pt average margin)

-------------------------------------
Thoughts: ATS performance is thoroughly unimpressive. This is a self-correcting system, in the sense that it purges out bad performers. I have set the baseline at 70% and may move it to 75% in the future.

ATS numbers are basically 50-50, if not almost worse in certain places.

The clear best performer are the Overs, with a cumulative record of 9-3.

The Unders are shockingly bad in the lowest tier, 50-50 in the mid-to-upper tiers.

[omega]

2/19/17 - RETROACTIVE

ATS PLAYS

85-90%
W. Kentucky +3.5 - WIN(+15.5 pts)

75-80%
Georgia Tech +4 - WIN(+10 pts)
Maryland +6 - LOSS(-5 pts)

70-75%
Fairfield +6 - LOSS(-13 pts)

OVER PLAYS

85-90%
Syracuse/Georgia Tech Over 136 - PUSH

80-85%
Southern Illinois/Indiana State Over 138 - WIN(+4 pts)

75-80%
Loyola-Chicago/Illinois State Over 129 - LOSS(-1 pt)

70-75%
Canisius/Marist Over 157.5 - LOSS(-7.5 pts)

UNDER PLAYS

75-80%
Rider/Iona Under 156.5 - LOSS(-31.5 pts)

[nosaij]

anymore actions?

[Jchef]

Vacation?????

[Fernburn74]

Any great 90% plays?