Too Good To Be True (TGTBT) end of season

[Birdman557]

Zona/Cal - easy Over.

[QuantumLeap]

These may not fit the TGTBT scheme, but I'm gona post em anyways.. S Utah +10 and Hawaii -7.5

hawaii did not cover the last 2 (at least. Driving can't check) at home and now they go on the road to play shit UC Davis. Some guy was sayin about how hawaii likes to rig the games at home and not cover purposely. Well now they're on the road and i think the line is lower than it should be because of hawaii's past few games.. I think they win easy tonight on the road @ UC Davis.

I like S Utah simply because of the fact i was betting against them constantly and they were like 2-17 ATS. Well things seem to be balancing out finally as vegas must have finally adjusted the lines to account for everyone fading S utah.. I think they have covered like 3/4 and on the road against another shit team, i see them keeping this close and even possibly winning this game..

I'll be watching for these 2. You've been pretty hot lately.
Thanks for the input.

[RetardStrength]

Quantum I like your logic. Do you have a historical record for TGTBT plays?

[QuantumLeap]

Quantum I like your logic. Do you have a historical record for TGTBT plays?

I went 8-2 the first week. A little less than .500 the rest of the time.

[RetardStrength]

I went 8-2 the first week. A little less than .500 the rest of the time.

Solid. I knew it was plus money!

[QuantumLeap]

In the early games So Carolina looks TGTBT but I don't know if Georgia has anything to play for so it's a no-bet.

Looks like the Dawgs came to play. Leading at halftime.

[QuantumLeap]

Looking at taking UConn. They're another road team playing a home team that has only lost 1 game at home. Except this is a team that hasn't given up like Colorado State.

More toward gametime (9pm Eastern).

[QuantumLeap]

Might have 2 rare cases when we take the favorite because the dog is TGTBT:

Houston is 14-3 at home and are an underdog??? They also start at 9 Eastern. I'll make a decision closer to then.

Penn State is 10-3 at home and are an underdog???

[QuantumLeap]

UConn +5 over SMU

Sorry for the late post. I'm going with them.

[QuantumLeap]

In the early games So Carolina looks TGTBT but I don't know if Georgia has anything to play for so it's a no-bet.

Georgia wins outright.

[Birdman557]

UConn +5 over SMU

Sorry for the late post. I'm going with them.

I have SMU 10+

[QuantumLeap]

Might have 2 rare cases when we take the favorite because the dog is TGTBT:

Houston is 14-3 at home and are an underdog??? They also start at 9 Eastern. I'll make a decision closer to then.

Penn State is 10-3 at home and are an underdog???

Decided not to go with Cincinnati (against Houston) or Northwestern (against Penn State). Just putting those out there for discussion. They looked like the number of bets were about even.

Another team that fits the TGTBT scenario is UC-Santa Barb (against UC-Riv). UCSB have won their last 6 and last 8 out of 10 and are favored by only 9 1/2 at home.
UCRiv have lost their last 5 out of 6.

[drbellhead]

What do you think of Stanford +2.5 over Ariz st?

I am leaning towards taken the points, not very impressed with Ariz St to be favored over anyone.

[Birdman557]

I have SMU 10+

[ATLIEN6]

I'm looking for a late night game but not familiar with any of these west coast teams

[QuantumLeap]

What do you think of Stanford +2.5 over Ariz st?

I am leaning towards taken the points, not very impressed with Ariz St to be favored over anyone.

Stanford not that great on the road (2-6). ASU is 10-5 at home.

[drbellhead]

Stanford not that great on the road (2-6). ASU is 10-5 at home.

I think I'll keep and eye on the line movement but i'm leaning towards Stanford/Cal Poly late....

[ATLIEN6]

so lean Az State??

[iloseagain]

Zona/Cal - easy Over.

what was that bud?

[Birdman557]

what was that bud?

Don't get butthurt again bud, not healthy for you.

[iloseagain]

wellp i took S Utah 1h +5.5 and +10.. Down 3 at half lookin good.. Took Hawaii -7.5 for the game and they down 11 at half lol.. Doubled up on Hawaii 2h -7.5.. Obv a square play but they had 13-6 turnovers.. Dont see that happening again.. Should come back and win

[iloseagain]

Don't get butthurt again bud, not healthy for you.

LOL... The way u constantly talk about being butthurt makes me wonder... Kid trolls me and then talks shit when he says to take the opposite of my play, then my play hits, and he STILL is saying I am butthurt.. You and that other dude mikefan both need to go see a psychologist.. I am not responding to you again because it is a waste of my fingers moving.. Have a nice life.. Keep trolling if you please

[iloseagain]

wellp i took S Utah 1h +5.5 and +10.. Down 3 at half lookin good.. Took Hawaii -7.5 for the game and they down 11 at half lol.. Doubled up on Hawaii 2h -7.5.. Obv a square play but they had 13-6 turnovers.. Dont see that happening again.. Should come back and win

6-0 hawaii

[iloseagain]

These may not fit the TGTBT scheme, but I'm gona post em anyways.. S Utah +10 and Hawaii -7.5

hawaii did not cover the last 2 (at least. Driving can't check) at home and now they go on the road to play shit UC Davis. Some guy was sayin about how hawaii likes to rig the games at home and not cover purposely. Well now they're on the road and i think the line is lower than it should be because of hawaii's past few games.. I think they win easy tonight on the road @ UC Davis.

I like S Utah simply because of the fact i was betting against them constantly and they were like 2-17 ATS. Well things seem to be balancing out finally as vegas must have finally adjusted the lines to account for everyone fading S utah.. I think they have covered like 3/4 and on the road against another shit team, i see them keeping this close and even possibly winning this game..

S Utah up 38-35 in the 2h... CMONNN ML!

Hawaii fighting back.. I wouldnt be surprised to see them cover the 7.5 for the game

[QuantumLeap]

so lean Az State??

No call for me if you were asking me.

[iloseagain]

Not sure if you mentioned this game but UC Irvine looks WAYYYY too easy at home vs Cal Poly.. 22-8 at home vs 10-17... Irvine beat them by 6 at their place too. Why do they not win by -8.5 tonight? They are 7-2 at home and have covered the -8.5 in 6 of those... What is going on here? Is this a neutral site or something?

[ATLIEN6]

Not sure if you mentioned this game but UC Irvine looks WAYYYY too easy at home vs Cal Poly.. 22-8 at home vs 10-17... Irvine beat them by 6 at their place too. Why do they not win by -8.5 tonight? They are 7-2 at home and have covered the -8.5 in 6 of those... What is going on here? Is this a neutral site or something?

I was wondering the same.

[QuantumLeap]

The one pick I had was:

L - UConn

So I go 0-1 today.

Thanks to everyone for your input. I think I will continue this system on Saturday but only for teams that have something to gain. In the past it was used for teams with bad records.

As far as the leans I mentioned:

W - Georgia over So Carolina
L - Cincinnati over Houston
W - Northwestern over Pa State
L - UC-Riv over UC-St. Barb

[QuantumLeap]

Not sure if you mentioned this game but UC Irvine looks WAYYYY too easy at home vs Cal Poly.. 22-8 at home vs 10-17... Irvine beat them by 6 at their place too. Why do they not win by -8.5 tonight? They are 7-2 at home and have covered the -8.5 in 6 of those... What is going on here? Is this a neutral site or something?

Good eye. I was watching to see if there was any line movement but I didn't notice that consensus was above 60% for UCI. I just couldn't take that pick because of recent history with bad teams. Let's keep an eye on this and I'll report the results.

Thanks for the input.

[iloseagain]

unreal lol i missed manhattan for the game so i was going to take them 2h.. I figured they would be either a PK, or -0.5 for the 2h.. Instead they were +3, so the line scared me into taking Marist 2H.. I mean why would a 7-22 team be -3 on the road in the 2h of a blowout???? This reminded me of the USC oregon st game the other night.. I figured USC would have been PK or -1 for the 2h because they were up 22 at half against a not-so-good team, but instead the line was Oregon St 2h -1.5.. I took USC +1.5 and Ore St crushed 2h. This game brought back memories of how I lost that game, so I took stupid Marist and they are just getting smoked some more.. betting

[iloseagain]

Good eye. I was watching to see if there was any line movement but I didn't notice that consensus was above 60% for UCI. Let's keep an eye on this and I'll report the results.

Thanks for the input.

I think maybe a good system to try would be to find teams that looks TGTBT, then single out the teams that have heavy public bet on them, then single out the teams that also have RLM (reverse line movement for those who may not know..)..

So lets do a hypothetical example:
Lets say Oregon is at home vs Arizona St. You would think Oregon would be like in the -10 range probably..
Lets say the line is Oregon -6.. We look at this and say Oregon looks TGTBT. Then we check the public % and notice that 75% are on Oregon. AND THEN, the line moves to Oregon -5... The play would be Arizona St... The picks have to hit ALL 3 categories (Looks TGTBT, large public % 65% or more, and at least 1 point of RLM).

So there wont be many plays if you use all 3 categories, but I think maybe it will hit at a pretty good percentage..


Let me know what you think about this..

[QuantumLeap]

I think maybe a good system to try would be to find teams that looks TGTBT, then single out the teams that have heavy public bet on them, then single out the teams that also have RLM (reverse line movement for those who may not know..)..

So lets do a hypothetical example:
Lets say Oregon is at home vs Arizona St. You would think Oregon would be like in the -10 range probably..
Lets say the line is Oregon -6.. We look at this and say Oregon looks TGTBT. Then we check the public % and notice that 75% are on Oregon. AND THEN, the line moves to Oregon -5... The play would be Arizona St... The picks have to hit ALL 3 categories (Looks TGTBT, large public % 65% or more, and at least 1 point of RLM).

So there wont be many plays if you use all 3 categories, but I think maybe it will hit at a pretty good percentage..


Let me know what you think about this..

I think I need to pay more attention to consensus numbers but they can be hard to trust sometimes. I usually use covers.com and scoresandodds.com but they can be quite different than each other.

As far as RLM is concerned, I think it's good but I don't think it's a must. If it's there then certainly use it but I think if the line is stable that counts too.

[iloseagain]

I think I need to pay more attention to consensus numbers but they can be hard to trust sometimes. I usually use covers.com and scoresandodds.com but they can be quite different than each other.

As far as RLM is concerned, I don't think it's necessary. If it's there then certainly use it but I think if the line is stable that counts too.

yea idk its just a thought haha

[ATLIEN6]

unreal lol i missed manhattan for the game so i was going to take them 2h.. I figured they would be either a PK, or -0.5 for the 2h.. Instead they were +3, so the line scared me into taking Marist 2H.. I mean why would a 7-22 team be -3 on the road in the 2h of a blowout???? This reminded me of the USC oregon st game the other night.. I figured USC would have been PK or -1 for the 2h because they were up 22 at half against a not-so-good team, but instead the line was Oregon St 2h -1.5.. I took USC +1.5 and Ore St crushed 2h. This game brought back memories of how I lost that game, so I took stupid Marist and they are just getting smoked some more.. betting

lol i fukkin hate when this happens, i feel your pain

[iloseagain]

YUPPP i took Cal Poly 1h +4.5, 1h u66, and parlayed them both.. Also took Cal poly +8.5 and u141.