Too Good To Be True (TGTBT) end of season

[QuantumLeap]

One of the principles of a game that is too good to be true is that a better team has to be favored by few points over a lesser team. Now is the time of year I'm finding the lesser teams to not want to put in as much effort to cover as in previous times of the season (in my opinion).

Therefore, I am going to have very few, if any, TGTBT picks until March Madness.

Thanks to everyone who contributed to these threads in the past. I strongly believe that with the playoffs these types of bets are going to happen more and more since there is a lot of money involved. I did pretty good with this concept during the NFL playoffs.

Good luck!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

get some R and R before March Madness!

[iloseagain]

Boise -11 looks like a play.. Nevada +11 looks TGTBT

[iloseagain]

Miss St +5 too. Miss -5 looks TGTBT

[RetardStrength]

I'd avoid the Nevada game if you're thinking to back. Injuries and a big senior night for a couple Boise stars... Just FYI

[QuantumLeap]

get some R and R before March Madness!

[QuantumLeap]

I'd avoid the Nevada game if you're thinking to back. Injuries and a big senior night for a couple Boise stars... Just FYI

Bunch of players out for that game.

[QuantumLeap]

Just wanted to point out a game that won't count in the record. We have Colorado State again (remember the foul with 0.4 seconds on the clock?). They are visiting Fresno State who is 15-2 at home. CSU is 3-7 on the road and are underdogs by 4 1/2 now.

Normally this would be a play on CSU but I'm thinking things might be different because of the time of the year. Let's see how this turns out.

[iloseagain]

Miss St +5 too. Miss -5 looks TGTBT

And miss st leads by 10+ all game and covers easy.. Why does vegas keep giving away money so easy? That is the squarest play I've ever seen and it cashes easy.. Same with that W Michigan game the other day, it was basically the same records and same spread and the fav just cashed easy both times.. I always feel like whenever i pick a favorite that looks too easy, then i lose too. I can't seem to figure it out

[QuantumLeap]

And miss st leads by 10+ all game and covers easy.. Why does vegas keep giving away money so easy? That is the squarest play I've ever seen and it cashes easy.. Same with that W Michigan game the other day, it was basically the same records and same spread and the fav just cashed easy both times.. I always feel like whenever i pick a favorite that looks too easy, then i lose too. I can't seem to figure it out

"Sometimes the team that is supposed to cover ends up covering."
-iloseagain



I'll never forget when you posted that. Not making fun of you but pointing out the sometimes painful truth.

If only the obvious trap plays won instead of the big favorite then everyone would have this figured out and we would all be rich. This is a strange game we play. Sometimes I think even the linesmakers get it really wrong. It's just that in the end they get it right more often than they get it wrong.

[QuantumLeap]

I may have spoken too early in my first post in this thread. I was thinking that it's bad teams that are supposed to cover and at this point of the season they have no motivation to do well so the favorites should cover more often than in other times of the season.

While that may be true, it's not necessarily bad teams that appear like they should get blown out. Take Oregon State. They're 17-10 which means they are a relatively good team. However, they are 3-6 on the road playing USC who is 15-1 at home and has a large % of bets on them. Perhaps I'll rethink retiring for the season and play the teams that don't suck who are playing teams that seem to have a line that's TGTBT. Let's watch the OSU/USC game to see more.

[iloseagain]

Lol i know i know.. Jus frustrating.. All i did was throw miss st in a parlay but still.. Annoying haha

[iloseagain]

Usc will prob cover the 5.. It does look easy but i guess it looks easy cuz usc has been playing awful lately and the spread is lower than it would normally be... So maybe this is another example of a game that looks TGTBT, but its only because of the recent awful play by USC bringing the spread down.. Played a lot of good teams lately and have lost 5/6.. I think usc may get back on track at home here

[iloseagain]

Usc just went up to -6.5 from -4.5 or -5.. I think i might be right about this one haha USC in a blowout

[QuantumLeap]

Lol i know i know.. Jus frustrating.. All i did was throw miss st in a parlay but still.. Annoying haha

I cleared out my PMs but didn't receive anything from you after doing so.

[QuantumLeap]

Usc just went up to -6.5 from -4.5 or -5.. I think i might be right about this one haha USC in a blowout

Wow! That was pretty late movement which is usually why I like to bet just before gametime but this movement was like 3 minutes before the hour. I don't usually wait that long to put in my bets.

Is someone out for the Beavers?

Maybe we can get a good halftime line.

[iloseagain]

I cleared out my PMs but didn't receive anything from you after doing so.

I never checked back in that thread that i posted that in sorry

[iloseagain]

Just wanted to point out a game that won't count in the record. We have Colorado State again (remember the foul with 0.4 seconds on the clock?). They are visiting Fresno State who is 15-2 at home. CSU is 3-7 on the road and are underdogs by 4 1/2 now.

Normally this would be a play on CSU but I'm thinking things might be different because of the time of the year. Let's see how this turns out.

fresno up large wow

[QuantumLeap]

Wow! That was pretty late movement which is usually why I like to bet just before gametime but this movement was like 3 minutes before the hour. I don't usually wait that long to put in my bets.

Is someone out for the Beavers?

Maybe we can get a good halftime line.

56-33 at the half.

USC is +1 1/2. I say OSU is done for the night. I'm taking the points with the Trojans for the 2nd half. Taking them small though.

[iloseagain]

56-33 at the half.

USC is +1 1/2. I say OSU is done for the night. I'm taking the points with the Trojans for the 2nd half. Taking them small though.

ugh i did the same, luckily taking the 2h under 80 as well.. i was thinking the exact same thing... instead USC didnt show up in the 2h.. 25 pts

[iloseagain]

Usc will prob cover the 5.. It does look easy but i guess it looks easy cuz usc has been playing awful lately and the spread is lower than it would normally be... So maybe this is another example of a game that looks TGTBT, but its only because of the recent awful play by USC bringing the spread down.. Played a lot of good teams lately and have lost 5/6.. I think usc may get back on track at home here

Usc just went up to -6.5 from -4.5 or -5.. I think i might be right about this one haha USC in a blowout

this is why USC was 15-0 at home.. Lots of people low on them (including myself) coming into this game.. That is until i started thinking about the miss st game earlier.. it was essentially the same exact thing.. mississippi was also not playing well coming into that game and was a measly 5 point fav to shit miss st.. I read that game wrong and used it to read this game correctly thankfully. I feel like thats the first game Ive hit in a blowout in a while.. feels good

[QuantumLeap]

I'd avoid the Nevada game if you're thinking to back. Injuries and a big senior night for a couple Boise stars... Just FYI

Thanks for posting. Great info!

[QuantumLeap]

Just wanted to point out a game that won't count in the record. We have Colorado State again (remember the foul with 0.4 seconds on the clock?). They are visiting Fresno State who is 15-2 at home. CSU is 3-7 on the road and are underdogs by 4 1/2 now.

Normally this would be a play on CSU but I'm thinking things might be different because of the time of the year. Let's see how this turns out.

Here is why I decided to take some time off.

Fresno State is a team that fits the TGTBT scenario. So if you were to follow this system you would take Colorado State. They went down by 20 at the half. I DO have to give them a little bit of credit as they outscored Fresno State 50-44 in the 2nd half but they still lost by 14.

[iloseagain]

Thanks for posting. Great info!

[RetardStrength]

Thanks for posting. Great info!

Credit to jeffchitown as well. I was eyeing this game to back Boise being Nevada has over achieved here and there. Very spotty. Boise stars on senior night at home. The Nevada injuries just solidified it, which I wasn't aware of till I saw Jeffs post. So wanted to let you know...

BOL today

[Calgunner23]

Hope to hear from you soon QL! I'll be a waitin'

[iloseagain]

Whoops i thought that was sarcasm... I guess he was saying avoid nevada not boise

[iloseagain]

These may not fit the TGTBT scheme, but I'm gona post em anyways.. S Utah +10 and Hawaii -7.5

hawaii did not cover the last 2 (at least. Driving can't check) at home and now they go on the road to play shit UC Davis. Some guy was sayin about how hawaii likes to rig the games at home and not cover purposely. Well now they're on the road and i think the line is lower than it should be because of hawaii's past few games.. I think they win easy tonight on the road @ UC Davis.

I like S Utah simply because of the fact i was betting against them constantly and they were like 2-17 ATS. Well things seem to be balancing out finally as vegas must have finally adjusted the lines to account for everyone fading S utah.. I think they have covered like 3/4 and on the road against another shit team, i see them keeping this close and even possibly winning this game..

[ATLIEN6]

These may not fit the TGTBT scheme, but I'm gona post em anyways.. S Utah +10 and Hawaii -7.5

hawaii did not cover the last 2 (at least. Driving can't check) at home and now they go on the road to play shit UC Davis. Some guy was sayin about how hawaii likes to rig the games at home and not cover purposely. Well now they're on the road and i think the line is lower than it should be because of hawaii's past few games.. I think they win easy tonight on the road @ UC Davis.

I like S Utah simply because of the fact i was betting against them constantly and they were like 2-17 ATS. Well things seem to be balancing out finally as vegas must have finally adjusted the lines to account for everyone fading S utah.. I think they have covered like 3/4 and on the road against another shit team, i see them keeping this close and even possibly winning this game..

That dudes username is Memento fyi. good point, would like to hear his input on that one

[RetardStrength]

Whoops i thought that was sarcasm... I guess he was saying avoid nevada not boise

LOL No...I was all about Boise!!! Was warning him off Nevada!

[BIGBOY88]

Guys tonight Zona or Cal??

[iloseagain]

Zona!

[QuantumLeap]

Hope to hear from you soon QL! I'll be a waitin'

In the early games So Carolina looks TGTBT but I don't know if Georgia has anything to play for so it's a no-bet.

[spicollifcfd]

Guys tonight Zona or Cal??

The over.

[iloseagain]

The over.

disagree.. 2 good defensive teams