Lkid1's Plays

[Louisvillekid1]

Thursday, CONT:


W Ky @ UAB, Blazers an odd team have a better in conference road record than @ home, they just ran off 3 in a row away, after dropping 3 in a row @ home. Just knocked off the Hilltoppers last week by 8. Both squads will be ready for this and both only 3rd game in 12 days. Hilltoppers defense and foul shooting should propel them to the win here but no play.


Marshall @ La Tech, Hurd in a bad spot here, having lost in OT last time, bad on the road in conference, & 12 days off before this one. Add that its the last game of the year for La Tech, who is right on schedule and winners of 3 straight. This is a really bad matchup. The Bulldogs should lock them down on D without fouling, and beat ‘em on the glass. La Tech Offense is really bad, but Marshall Defense is worse. I Don’t understand this #, yeah la tech won the last matchup 89-80 but in OT scored 25 of that, and that was @ marshall. The opener of 152.5 has soared to 156. Herd being off 12 days, could be very flat. I might be getting suckered, but Gimmie the 1H under 74


Austin Peay @ E KY, The Governors are 13-3 in conference, and all 3 losses have combined by 8 points. They beat the Colonels to opener that slate by 20+, E KY best offense is off their defense, and AP has ball security. Don’t like betting a team that gets most of their scoring from deep on the road, but I have no clue how this opener went from 4 to 3… I suppose this is the definition of a trap game, but gimme AP -3 -115, Governors have played in tight games on the road, but I guess im eating the cheese here.




Furman @ Samford, I can’t figure.


Murray St @ Morehead , The Eagles are in an upset spot, scheduling wise here, but just can’t see it on the court, 9 is a lot of points, and wouldn’t be on Murray here for sure.


UT Rio @ Chicago St, The Vaqueros are a team I like, and well the cougars are poor. They have one win all season and that was dec 1. however I can’t the lay the 16 here.


ODU @ UTSA, this conference does that scheduling flip thing, setting up some teams to play 2 away games vs the same squad. UTSA beat them by 1 last time and all 5 of their conf losses have come on the road, undefeated @ home. But they have the dreaded 12 days off here. Gimmie the Monarchs +0.5 1h


FAU @ UNT, Mean green should get this done, but too many points for me.


App St @ ULM, Let the 3 ball rain here. 20+ 3’s in the game , ULM balance should get the win, but 7 way to much for me.


Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana, Man This conference is brutal on some these teams w/ travel, makes Chants so tough to figure, i mean on paper the +4 is very live, but i’ll pass.


NKU @ Milwaukee, not the best spot for a road fav, and can’t back Mil either… PASS


IUPUI @ Detroit, sheesh titans have played 5 straight roady’s and 7 of their last 9! Jags off b2b wins, but a much better team at home. This conference needs to work on that 5 on 5 off shit. The spot sets up nicely for the Titans, line going other direction, and I can’t call it.


Wright St @ GB, I think the phoenix will be tough tonight @ home, but don’t wanna ride that train.


UTA @ S Bammer, Mavericks defense, rebounding, & Foul shooting should be enough to get this road win, but I won’t be aboard.


Belmont @ UT Martin, 11 seems high here, but i can’t beat Bruins as they are on the list.


Neb Omaha @ Oral Rob, mavericks have went 11-1 in conference since these teams last met, dropping that by 3 in tulsa. They are going to be a tough out in this tournament, and might be a dark horse to find a date to the dance. Extremely efficient on offense and do a great job boxing out. Shouldn’t have any issues getting this road win, but not excited about laying 4 in this spot as its the last game of the season for OR.


ND @ FW, see no reason for the Mastodons to slip up here, but 9.5 too much for me…


Tenny ST @ SEMO, Flip a coin.


T Tech @ SIU Eddy, can’ lay the 3.5 w/ cougars, PASS.

[Louisvillekid1]

"

Nebraska @ Michigan, Wolverines should blow out the huskers here, who are awful on the road, Michigan off home loss and NEB off tough game almost upsetting purdue. Michigan -12"

Nebraska is awful at home this year too. This team has totally fallen apart after the loss of their top player. Coach is fired. It's a mess. Should be a safe play..... especially with Michigan coming off a loss.

Yeah that's what im saying...

[matt711]

Typical answer hours later when someone is looking for advice. If you haven't noticed. The kid never responds to questions about my of the bets he makes. He copy/paste shit and disappears if someone has a legitimate question about the reasoning

Never heard of you nocal

[Louisvillekid1]

Thurs CONT:


USC @ UCLA, Trogans have a tough finish playing last 3 on the road. Where they are 2-5 in conference, while the bruins are trying to right the ship winning 3 of the last 4. They did lose by 13 when these 2 first met. Its a typical ugly pac 12 matchups. UCLA rebounding vs USC 3 point shooting, but I don’t like anything here.


Washington ST @ Stanford, Don’t see anything here


Arizona @ Oregon St, OSU should get this done, but not interested, who knows what’s going on w/ zona. As you can see I don’t like pac 12 all that much.


Jax St @ E Illy, not the best spot for this road fav, pass


NDST @ SD, Should be ton of points scored in one from the strike, with the clock stopped., but Fg’s will be @ a premium. Tough call


W Ill @ Denver, Pioneers rebounding will be the difference here, Lossers of 7 str8 and they laying 3 in this spot, I think they get this done @ home, but a difficult back.


Weber ST @ No Rado, This is a good spot for Weber, they got the week prep time and own a win vs the bears. On the Court they matchup very even, they have a big edge from the line. Weber +5 here is not a bad option, but I’m gonna choose the pass line.


Tulane @ Tulsa, Golden Hurricanes should get what they want, but zero chance im laying DD here..


Minny @ NW, Gophers have dropped 6 of 7, while Cats have dropped 7 str8. On the court I think Minny gets more chances to score but can’t trust their foul shooting if its tight. Pass


Sac St @ E Wash, Eagles 3 point shooting the difference here, but can’t lay 5 in this one.


Seattle @ Cal Baptist, Redhawks only 3 wins in conference and 2 are vs Chicago St. And this is the 3rd game in 5 days. Lancers should get this done, but another I can’t lay the points, even with seattles quick travel turn around.


Port St @ idaho, Vandals are awful but too many points for a road fav.


Cal Poly @ Cal St Fullerton, Titans should get this win but too many points.


SD @ SF, Spot sets up nice for the dons, but no interest here.


LBST @ UCSB, Can’t find any edge here


Portland @ St Mary’s, Gaels easy here, but not laying 20+ w/ zags on deck to close out season.


Zona St @ Oregon, Sundevils also close out season w/ 3 on the road, slightest lean to hurley’s bunch + the 3. pass


Zags @ Pacific, prob cover the huge number but no thanks.


Washington @ Cal, the Huskies are quietly have a big year, picking off the terrible pac 12 competition, while cal is 0-12. Call my crazy but 12 is too many points here. Washington gets into the top 25 and some recognition, leads to a major let down spot on the road vs last place team, who will be fighting. California +12


Santa Clara @ Lo La Mary, Lions should get this done but 7 too much.


UC Irvine @ UC Davis, Anteaters get the week prep and looks to be a win away to clinch the conference. They should get this done, but in an ugly grind it out game, Their foul shooting makes this a pass.

[Louisvillekid1]

ok so 5-2 last night

Another 7 pack tonight:

615 UIC/Oakland u151
606 Michigan -12
466 UMKC +7
1667 ODU +0.5 1h
1665 Marshall/La Tech u74 1h
685 Austin Peay -3 -115
662 California +12

Got some bad lines i suppose, but
Good Luck

[jjgold]

The kid is back no doubt

plenty to choose from players

[Louisvillekid1]

ok so 5-2 last night

Another 7 pack tonight:

615 UIC/Oakland u151
606 Michigan -12
466 UMKC +7
1667 ODU +0.5 1h
1665 Marshall/La Tech u74 1h
685 Austin Peay -3 -115
662 California +12

Got some bad lines i suppose, but
Good Luck

2x add

Portland St / Idaho u144 2x

[jjgold]

Espn wanted him

[Louisvillekid1]

Fielding offers from sbr marketing team now lol

[pilebuck13]

Tremendous analysis kid

[KVB]

[leetreaper]

Espn wanted him

[KVB]

Might make this my new music thread.

I'm sure bear cub won't mind.

[Louisvillekid1]

Tremendous analysis kid

Thanks, hope all is well

[Chi_archie]

Might make this my new music thread.

I'm sure bear cub won't mind.

easy Russian Rocket,

we don't do that shit here in NCAAB sub forum

[Louisvillekid1]

Rough start,

Big swing on UTSA 3Q court buzzer beater also

Dam

[coach 40/40]

Great analysis. Sometimes the results aren’t what we want but in the long run your a proven winner. Thanks for helping.

[cwnotorious]

Great analysis. Sometimes the results aren’t what we want but in the long run your a proven winner. Thanks for helping.

Couldn't of said it better myself
So great to have u back kid
U are a huge asset to this little community

[Louisvillekid1]

8-7 +1.3x since back


Columbia @ Brown , NO Opinion


Kent St @ Bowling Green


I want to take Falcons here as they are off 2 losses and should hit DD 3’s in this spot. Bowling Green offense comes from the 3 ball and 2 chance points from rebounding those misses. The golden Flashes are at the bottom of the league in both perimeter defense and defensive rebounding. Falcons can be lights out, especially at home. This was exposed in their first matchup where BG shot 9-22 (41%) from 3 and had 12 O boards on the road, but that was all the way back in early January. The Golden Flashes also foul a lot and BG will convert from the line. Everything points to a DD win here. HOWEVER, This Kent St is very experienced has been improving, while have the clear coaching edge. 5.5 feels light to me as I would think this would be closer to 7. Its just too much uncertainty to lay the points here, backing the younger group, weaker coach, @ so 3 point reliant, coming off b2b losses. Gotta defer here.


Liberty @ NJIT & Lipscomb @ North Alabama


Lets just work through these together, as both first place teams enter the last game of the season tied. Liberty showing out in their first year in this conference. And they split w/ Lipscomb during the season, honestly not sure what the tie break is there. NJIT having a nice season, only 3 home losses in conference and 2 were against Lipscomb. A big part of that is they play in a very tiny gym, and all the other squads in this conference travel from the south, vice versa their road trips are difficult as well. The Highlanders lost the first matchup by 20. On the court, NJIT plays very tough defense but they will put you on the line. They have a balanced offensive attack, and ball security will key in this one. Liberty was simply lights out in this first go round. 17-30 from 2 & 11-24 from 3. Should be a tight game and the experience of the Flames while playing for a potential league title, should overcome the Highlanders youth in the end. PASS


Bisons are coming off an intense win on senior night vs that NJIT group 81-77, a game where they needed 16 3’s to get the W. They beat N Bammer by 22 in the last matchup @ home. The Lions really haven’t a bad year (10-20 ; 7-8) playing a tough schedule and considering their first year in D1. 3 points away from winning their last 3. On the Court, the Bison own every edge, however I do feel this like of 14 is slightly high. Just can’t back the dog here either. PASS


Cornell @ Yale,


Big Red losses of 3 straight, which started by dropping this previous matchup by 8 on the road. That was a Fri/Sat home n home after beating Brown in OT the night before, meaning it was a great spot for them to play well. Bulldogs still have work to do in locking up this conference and going to the dance, as Tommy Amaker’s Harvard group is starting to come on after beating Yale last out. Both squads had the typical ivy week off, but gotta think Yale practices were turned up a notch after the 2nd place Crimson 2 point loss @ home. On the Court Yale matches up extremely well, will dominate the glass, the only issue they have is they can be sloppy w/ the rock at times and the Red will turn you over. This number opened @ 13 and fell to 11.5 currently, and its a # that im pretty confident in , @ 10 I’d definitely lay it. AT this points its just a lean, but you can safely use their ML tonight and I might come back to that. YALE ML -910


Rhody @ Dayton,


Rams off a win vs GW (one of the worst teams in A 10) but losses of 7 outta their last 9 and only 2 road wins in conference on the year. Anthony Grant has Dayton Flying, only 4 conference losses and 2 are vs VCU. On the Court Rhody is really gonna struggle to find points, its one of those scenarios that they need to just chuck up as many shots trying to get the put back, catching that zone outta place. Its going to be a ton of passing around the 3 point line and deep shot clock possessions. On offense, the Flyers are patient and extremely efficient. They will get whatever they want inside and out. The only concern with pace here is Rhody might press and try to get points that way. Rams score the most percentage points in conference from the line, and they are terrible from there, bottom in the conference, just get a lot of attempts, well Dayton fouls the least in conference. The line has dropped from 9 to 7, and Im not sure why. I don’t think Rhody gets 60 here. They last matchup was 77-48, and that was @ home. Play on Rhode Island u64


Iona @ Rider,


Last game of the season for the Gaels, winners of 6 straight and in a 4 way tie for first place in the loss column. A win tonight would clinch atleast a share of the title. One of those teams tied is their opponent Rider. Who is pretty much is one of the most ideal situations you can ask for, Perfect week prep and last home game of the Reg season. They have won 3 straight, having lost by 6 to Iona in the first meeting on the road. Gaels matchup here is great, besides on the glass. They don’t foul much and the Broncs make a living there. Rider scores a ton of points off turnovers but the Gaels also top of the conference in the protecting the rock. Iona have a ton of points in the Paint. Rider’s half court offense is atrocious, they need the open court off turnovers or offensive rebounding. This line is floating around 5, and that feels high, however IONA is the list of teams w/ Davidson, Belmont, etc… That I cannot win either way. PASS


Marist @ Fairfield, Just feels like an over game, not much to write. Last time they played only went to 109 and we are looking at a total of 134. Pace will be average, but both teams should get plenty of chances around the rim. Marist will also get points off turnovers and from deep. I really wanna pull the trigger on this one, but the last game and week prep is keeping from doing so. Unfortunate Pass and Im keeping selections much tighter.


Penn @ Harvard,


Crimson better bring it here, as they do match up very well, but this could be tight for several reasons. Line reflects that i believe. Pass


Stetson @ Kennesaw St. Good Luck


Quinny @ St Peter’s,


Bobcats are part of that 4 way tie, we were talking about in the MAAC, but this isn’t as easy as it may appear. Tough Call


Monmouth @ Manhattan,


Hawks trying to avoid ending their season w/ 5 straight losses, and this game is just going to be ugly… Both teams might turn it over 20+ times. Jaspers 3 points shooting prob the difference, but who knows, just an awful game to handicap.


Princeton @ Dartmouth, Big Green 2-8 in the Ivy however they aren’t that bad. 6 of the 8 came by 5 points or less. Lots of tight games, and if ever a spot to show that, it’s tonight. This could be a big weekend hosting their last 2 home games vs teams they just lost to. They have 2 key injuries playing a part in that Andrease Jackson & Ian Sistare missing games, also they played their last 4 on the road. One being a 1 point loss to this tiger’s team in a game they gave away late. This is the ivy’s #2 offense (Dartmouth) vs #1 Defense (Princeton) Im not seeing the injuries active, so hoping they will be back, at least Sister. Princeton’s Devin Cannady I believe is still suspended. None of my New Jersey Books are offering a line for this game or I’d be on the Big Green Pk +100


Buffalo @ Miami Oh, Cant figure has a feel of those weird friday night games, similar to like thursday night NCAAF, where upsets happen


Siena @ Cansius , PASS


In Conclusion:


Rhode Island u64 is -115 so I’ll parlay that w/ Yale ML -910 as my play tonight to get rid of that juice.


Brings it to +108


Also I do recommend a play on Dartmouth Pk +100

^ ill grade it as a play

[Louisvillekid1]

Great analysis. Sometimes the results aren’t what we want but in the long run your a proven winner. Thanks for helping.

Thanks guys, we will get rolling here.

Couldn't of said it better myself
So great to have u back kid
U are a huge asset to this little community

Thanks my man, ty

[KVB]

easy Russian Rocket,

we don't do that shit here in NCAAB sub forum

I don't post in those sub forums, not ever.

This was accessed in Player's Talk.

Mods, maybe this should be removed from PT.

Until then I just might make it my music thread.

[jjgold]

lets get some horses

great cards

[Louisvillekid1]

lets get some horses

great cards

Weather sucks east coast right now

But of course

[Louisvillekid1]

My team is Man U -1 -116 tomorrow 1x & Inter Milan -135 0.6x today ; in foots

Flyers -130 0.6x is hockey tonight

Maybe NBA later

just sharing ,

[Louisvillekid1]

Buffalo O155 2x

[romecloneout]

Any horses for tomorrow big man?

[Louisvillekid1]

Cmon man , rhody lights out first half still can’t get over the 64 mark , and Dayton misses wide open tip @ buzzer... I also played the dam game under ...

[Louisvillekid1]

Any horses for tomorrow big man?

Not as of now

[Louisvillekid1]

Man Results struggling right now...
Sat:


Binghamton @ Maine, I guess the only thing that jumps out here, is the fact a 4 win team has opened 4.5 fav’s.


Colgate @ Laffy, Raiders enter their last game of the season in a 3 way tie atop of the Patriot League. Winners of 7 str8 & beat this Lafayette team by 10 earlier this season @ home. Colgate has every edge on the court as you would expect, but the leopards 3 point shooting is legit. Seeing an opener of 7, and feels about right as both teams will be ready.


Army @ Bucknell, Bison on of those other 2 teams in that 3 way tie, and Army has been in free fall, especially on the road. Opening total feels high @ 147, but nothing at point.


LSU @ Alabama, The last time they played it was a 9 point win that landed on 167 in the SEC opener. Tiger offense vs Tide defense, and at first glance you gotta lean the under here, seeing a total of 150. I mean isn’t this pretty simple? The line is 1.5 and does anyone see Alabama winning this game in the High 70’s plus? I don’t see a lot of fouls in this one either, and neither team is all that great shooting the 3. IDK everything I see points to under,Strong lean LSU/Alabama u149.5


Kansas @ Oklahoma St, I know the cowboys shoot it well from deep , especially at home, but I really don’t see any reason Kansas can’t cover this #. Strong lean for now…


Nc ST @ FSU, First glance you look and see NC ST week prep and catching 7.5, that’s a lot. I think a lot of punters are going to be on the dog here, but this is a terrible matchup for Keatts squad on the court. I think this is going to be a route, Gimmie FSU -7.5 2x


Cuse @ Wake, Not sure how you can back either in this spot. 137 feels like a big number but I have no interest in this matchup.


Navy @ Boston U, Let me just say for this Terrier squad to be this young and play everybody on the bench, finishing the season 8-10, is a team to look out for next year. They won 3 straight and already have a 6 point win over Navy on the road. But nothing from ATS standpoint.


Mich St @ Indy, I simply see this one right around both numbers.


American @ Holy Cross, Im surprised to see the Eagles a dog here, but pass.


Ole Miss @ Arky, This is the definition of a terrible spot for the Rebels. I mean they still upset off that loss vs Tenny , Kentucky is on deck, and they get the youthful Razorbacks who are quietly improving every game, on the road. Its clearly Arky or nothing , but the razorbacks awful foul shooting makes me worry if its tight late, Would be on the Razorbacks if +$ for the 1h I’m sure, but at this point think we can find better spots.


Penn St @ Wiscy, Well the Lions are surely feeling themselves right now, but what an ask to go into one of the hardest areas to get a win in the nation, facing a team off a loss. Points are going to be a premium for Penn St, but something to note here. Ive noticed Wiscy has been a much better 2h team and overcame some very sluggish starts, I remember maryland and Illinois most recently. Might be a good plan if you wanna bet wiscy in this one to wait until half. Think about it, you get a red hot Nittany Lions team who will be confident to start, At some point you might get the badgers closer PK, which is something ill keep in mind while watching this one.


Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay, Liked the Phoenix last game and they got it done, not sure they can do it again here. Too tight to call.


New Hampshire @ UMBC, This could have the makings for a special game for the Retrievers. They are sending off a few guys from that historic upset vs UVA last year in the tourney on senior day and they are playing one of the worst teams in the nation, Coming off their 2nd win! I see a soft opener @ 16 that went back on forth and is currently 14.5. They only beat this time by 8 on road, but I think w/ the situation of this one and coming off 2 losses, I think this blowout city, but its just not their style of play to win by 20. Maybe a first half play @ a smaller #? Asking myself questions I suppose it means pass.


Central Conn @ Farliegh Dickinson, Well CC suspended their best 2 players 2 games ago and one a senior isn’t being honored tomorrow afternoon. Knights have won 4 straight and last time these 2 played it was a 2OT thriller won by CC. Farliegh is in 2nd place only one game out and have split w/ the leader St Francis PA, so still alive for a at least a share. I think the Knights should roll here, yeah CC Still honoring 3 , but gotta think this team has packed it in after losing their last 5. Farleigh Dickinson -3.5


Fordham @ Davidson, Davidson on the list


Little Rock @ Ga ST, Coach Hunter sending off a bunch, but it has potential to be spoiled. I like when teams in this conference play the instate schools b2b in the 2nd match. I think AKLR keeps it close early , and the Panthers pull away late to celebrate senior day. AKLR 1h +5ish is a solid option, but mostly likely just a pass.


Citadel @ Vmi, Great spot from VMI, but can’t back ‘em here.


Ohio St @ Purdue, Ohio St has what? 2 wins on the road in conference and we know how purdue is at home, they already beat them by 12 on the road. The line is currently @ 11, but In my gut I think this is closer than expected, Ill spectate.


Iowa St @ Texas, This spot favors ISU, but Texas I’ve struggled w/ PASS


Butler @ Villanova, this should be a very tough battle, line opened @ 9 dropped quickly to 7, and I get it.


Not sure how much time Ill have to go through every thought on the rest of this card, but will share what I can…


So Far:


Florida St -7.5 2x
Farleigh Dickinson -3.5 1x

[pilebuck13]

Kid, I appreciate your analysis....being mostly a stat based college hoops better I seem to do extremely well in February late January then get absolutely crushed when tournaments roll around, any advice, like I said your knowledge is extremely deep in betting as well as the game it self....thanks and good luck on being sober buddy...I almost had 10 years myself before I started drinking again.

[Louisvillekid1]

Kid, I appreciate your analysis....being mostly a stat based college hoops better I seem to do extremely well in February late January then get absolutely crushed when tournaments roll around, any advice, like I said your knowledge is extremely deep in betting as well as the game it self....thanks and good luck on being sober buddy...I almost had 10 years myself before I started drinking again.

Thanks man , and yeah we go back. The neutral site game can be extremely tough on stat cappers , really comes down to on court X n O’s + coaching strategy...

In general I’d just suggest start off the season with lower units ,increase in the middle & lower to close out.

It’s easier said than done

Seems like the best results come from big spot plays on the edges of the slate , and grinding more volume during conference play.

I was away from the game for the first time early in the season and then with personal shit going on, I’m just getting back in.

Reading local papers & small team websites is great before making your wagers as a side note.

We’ll figure this out here shortly

Hoping to pick up atlesst 20-30x before seasons end...

Looks like I’m down a few now, to start.

Hit me up anytime

[pilebuck13]

Thanks man , and yeah we go back. The neutral site game can be extremely tough on stat cappers , really comes down to on court X n O’s + coaching strategy...

In general I’d just suggest start off the season with lower units ,increase in the middle & lower to close out.

It’s easier said than done

Seems like the best results come from big spot plays on the edges of the slate , and grinding more volume during conference play.

I was away from the game for the first time early in the season and then with personal shit going on, I’m just getting back in.

Reading local papers & small team websites is great before making your wagers as a side note.

We’ll figure this out here shortly

Hoping to pick up atlesst 20-30x before seasons end...

Looks like I’m down a few now, to start.

Hit me up anytime

Solid advice thanks buddy

[Louisvillekid1]

Get to the rest of card shortly , just those 2 to start the day

[jjgold]

A lot of stuff here to absorb

Top shelf info

[Louisvillekid1]

I like the # 8 global campaign in the fountain of youth

Backed it up w/ Ex Box 6,7,8

Gulfstream r13