I'd say Rice 1h and the CC/app St u are the 2 strongest so far
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Rice +3 1h 2x
Coastal/App St u155 2xComment -
Strong Leans:
BYU 1h
Iowa St 1h
Northeastern 1hLast edited by Louisvillekid1; 02-16-19, 08:09 AM.Comment -
Seeing UNC Wake total up to 159.5 on BMComment -
KID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Nice to see you Kid, wishing you the best!Comment -
You like clemson +2.5 1st half? You think Louisville starts this game out with a hangover after feeling like they had a victory over the best team in the country and watching it slip right away at the end? I know you said you leaned clemson money line but 1st half spread seems really strong to me. Any thoughts on this play would be appreciated.Comment -
Another meltdown is coming in 3.2.1....Comment -
Damn rough day so far 1-5Comment -
Im just getting back in the game...
yesterday got my confidence back, Had Bammer and built a ticket around them w/ Dayton, North Florida, Utah St, & UNI on the ml's...
I really like tonights card...
Maryland -1.5 @ Penn St is a complete toss up, Love this Terps team and can't wait to see them continue to grow on a neutral court this march, and the Lions are improving every game, so tough at home.
Davidson -5.5 @ LaSalle, This is just a strong lean that LaSalle plays one of their better games of the season tonight. 6 is a lot of points here but I never can beat Davidson, they are one the list...
Missouri St +2 @ Illy St, This is another tough matchup in which I wouldn't wanna be holding a ticket against the home team on Senior night, with these expereinced squads, Slight lean Illy St ML
SIU -2.5 @ Evansville, The Sulukis have been alternating win/Loss this month and I expect that continue. They only beat the Purple aces by 5 @ home, this is just not a good spot. Yes Evansville has lost 6 straight and 10 of their last 11, but This is a great spot for them to play their best game of the season. They have a big edge @ the line here, and if they can just not get completely killed on the glass giving up 2nd chances opps, then they could get this win in their last home game. I expect a big effort on defense, and They should be able to score enough to end Walter McCarty's opening campaign on a high note. Aces +3 -115
Houston -16 @ ECU, They just must be getting bored at this point, but that defense is suffocating and not sure how ECU scores in this one. Of course this is not a spot for a play, but you could safely safe some juice on your plays my parlaying the ML (same w/ T Tech on a smaller scale)
UCF -2.5 @ USF, Can't back UCF off that route of SMU, and USF is so streaky they are tough to figure. Both teams will have plenty of chances to take this on the court, leaving too many chances for me to make a play.
Clemson -4.5 @ Pitt, Capels kid bring it every night and yeah they lost 10 straight, but this is a great spot. They have the full week prep for this home game and the zoo is still the zoo. Clemson can not afford to lose this game for a chance @ the tourney, but that's not angle as their is a reason they are in this spot. Pitt had played some very tough games, and the extra prep time couldn't come at a better for this matchup. They can put the rest behind and them, and just focus on playing basketball here. The tigers are going have to really shot it well from deep to come away with a win here. The Foul Shooting is terrible for the Panthers, so lets hope effort overcomes. Pittsburgh +4.5 for me, looking at the movement It almost looks like sharp money drove it up to 6 and pounded it back down.
Tenny @ Ole Miss, I got the under @ 149.5... Its just a tough spot for Tenny, as many times they can naturally struggle. Blown out by Kentucky, unlucky after LSU, and Kentucky on deck, vs a very tough Ole Miss squad. 3rd road game in last 4, and Rebels have some unity growing down there recently. Just see this as a really competitive game, but the big key is that neither team fouls much, and/or gets to the line all that much. Both teams will knock down their share of 3 balls here, But I don't think its gonna be enough to get over this number (at least in regulation) I still like the under @ 146...
Richmond +5.5 @ George Mason, When I capped this game last I couldn't believe the Spiders were catching almost the key #6 here. To the point I had to go back and see what I was missing, but I couldn't find it. However when I went back I decided I liked the under even more and I played Under 144, got a bad number here and I see its 145.5 now, but still think Richmond is very live dog as well. Chris mooney has these kids improving and won 4 of 5, 5 of 7, while mason has dropped its last 2. Another matchup where neither team fouls much at all, and they both take care of the rock. Should be a smoothly played game, and Spiders should get what they want in this matchup both inside and out, while Patriots score only inside, but they will win the battle on the glass here. The combo of relying a road team to make the 3, while losing the rebounding battle, and being terrible from the charity strike, talked me off Richmond and into the under.
Niagara @ Cansius I played the OVER 151, Another bad number as I see 148 and when I played it , I knew it was high. But its a reason, this is just a pure over game. When they played the first time it landed 148 and the number is trending that way. 3rd road game this week for for purple eagles, and 3rd game in 5 days for Golden Griffins. Now that spells tired legs, but Im thinking in this level, that's gonna affect the defense more than shooting legs. Sius will get whatever they want in this game, and Niagara will score from 3. Both are strong at the line, and neither can play d even when fresh.
Indiana St +6 @ Drake, Indy ST scores a huge chunk from the line and one the road vs a team that doesn't foul much, really doesn't bode well. I don't see how the Sycamores score here, and Drake will get whatever they want and win the battle on the glass. This one just looks like a simple DD win..Drake -6 -115
Marquette +5 @ Nova, This one is simple I took Nova -3 -115, one where I got a good but use them on the ml in parlays or lay the 5. I don't have much to write on this one, it just seems pretty clear that Nova plays big.
IF you don't wanna lay the 5 at this point, you can ML par w/ drake, Cansius, and/or Bonnies (who are all solid options imo)
In Conclusion:
Evansville +3 -115 is a Play, also ML is a good option if you can't get 3...
LaSalle +6 is just gut a lean, but I used them ATS and ML on some exotic's...
Ill St -2 is just a lean
Houston ML and Texas Tech ML I have a ticket
Pittsburgh +4.5 is a Play
Tennessee/Ole Miss u149.5 is a Play (Still like it @ 146.5)
Richmond/George Mason u144 is a play (you can get a better # now, & Richmond ATS and ML is a lean)
Bonnies I didn't write about but when I capped this game I was all but ready to go punch them in a str8 play, but didn't expect line to be as high, strong ML addition I used on a ticket)
Niagara/Cansius O151 is a Play (you can get much better # now, and I used Golden Griffins ML on a ticket)
Drake -6 -115 is a Play
Villanova -3 -115 is a Play (Still like it @ 5, but I also used ml on a ticket)
Big card but feeling very confident.Comment -
I was gonna start a daily vid , being back daily capping the card I'll be a day ahead like normal...
Better than guys throwing money away on that lazy ass Tout videos Ive seen here recently...
Ill post tomorrow thoughts/plays later onComment -
Kid Congrats getting out of prison you did your time and it was a very very long time let’s get back to picking winnersComment -
Any thoughts about another games, Im here just playing WSOP and Poker Stars
Trying to build my roll backComment -
Hey Kid--
Hope things are turning around for you. Always light on the horizon.
Good luck to you.Comment -
Hey Kid,
I be enjoyed your thread for a couple of years. Keep a go!!!!!
GLComment -
get em!
I see an epic March and April for youComment -
Sorry for the typo.
Enjoyed your thread for a couple of years.
Keep rolling.
GLComment -
PGA Honda Classic :
Jason Dufner +17500 each way
Graeme McDowell +6600 EW
Billy Horschel +3300 EW
Cameron Smith +2200 EW
Gary Woodland +1600 EW
Michael Thompson +5000 EW
Alex Noren +4000 EW
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Michael Thompson R1 Leader +5000
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72 hole matchup:
Horschel -118 vs List
Noren -105 vs An
Woodland -125 vs Simpson
Thompson -105 vs KnoxLast edited by Louisvillekid1; 02-27-19, 05:38 PM.Comment -
Smith -125 vs Berger
1x on the matchups
0.05x On EW (cost 0.1x) each golfer
0.05x On r1 leader
Risking 5.65x overall
My each way is first 7 places @ 1/5Last edited by Louisvillekid1; 02-27-19, 05:41 PM.Comment -
Kid - how much of an issue is Tremell Murphys unjury tonight for Drake? Currently listed as questionable.Comment -
Kid valuable
one of our top cappers
I will throw on you list FridayComment -
good to have you back bro
now cut the illegal shit outComment -
Man SIU & Clemson Just we’re blazing outta the gate from deep, couldn’t recover ... Evansville gets 90+ and doesn’t cover...
Mixed bag tonight
3-2 start outta the 7Comment -
Typical answer hours later when someone is looking for advice. If you haven't noticed. The kid never responds to questions about my of the bets he makes. He copy/paste shit and disappears if someone has a legitimate question about the reasoningComment -
Here’s what I see for Thursday:
Robert Morris @ Sacred Heart, I got nothing
Xavier @ St. John’s, seems like a low scoring affair in which X will have plenty of chances to get the cover. However I haven’t been able to figure these teams out, and ill PASS.
Little Rock @ Ga So, has the makings to be a very sloppy game, AKLR points have to come off turnovers in this one, as they will be frustrated in the half court. They should be able to hold their own on defense, but its extremely difficult to tell how many easy scoring opps are going to come off the huge amount of turnovers/scrambles I expect in one. 154 seems heavy, but for that reason i’ll be looking elsewhere.
Uconn @ Wichy St, Man Hurley’s bunch had a rough stretch here playing the top 5 teams in the AAC in 6 of the 7 games, losing all 6, but in competitive fashion for the most part. They beat the shockers by 20 in the first matchup before that 7 game stretch. and remember the last 5 w/o Jalen Adams. Shockers have been picking up the bottom of the conference. Both teams plenty of prep entering this one. Huskies gonna need the 3 ball in this one, and should be lower scoring as well. Can’t find a good edge in this one.
Winthrop @ Hampton, Eagles off a very tough 2 OT Last home win, and they will have their hands full here. Pirates don’t turn it over, and could really grind here. But in the end, they will foul too much on the defense end, combined w/ Winthrop’s rebounding , should get the road win late. Tough battle
Arky St @ Ga St, Not much here
CC St @ LIU Brooklyn, Pretty simple here, LIU Brook should get this done, but Im not interested in laying 6 points w/ them, nor backing the ml.
Texas St @ Troy, Bobcats better be upset alert in this one. Troy should be able to hang w/ their scoring inside, but they probably wind up beating themselves in the end. Texas St best offense in the half court is probably off a missed shot, but they will get run outs from live ball turnovers. Neither squad gets the line or can make the 3 ball @ a high clip, so minus the heavy turnovers from Troy, a lot of signs point to an under but the line Im seeing is around 134 and not much to work with there. Troy +5 is a slight lean tho, just can’t trust it to make it a play w/ their sloppiness.
NE @ Dely, This is another bad spot for the road fav. Dely finally gets a home game, after last 3 on the road, and Huskies off their last home game of the season. However on the court I can’t find enough to get behind the blue hens here, Huskies make enough 3’s to get the win, in maybe a tougher grind it game then you would expect. But its another like the Texas St, where I would def stay away from the Road Fav.
Bill n Mary @ Towson, This is just extremely tight, both units pretty much block one another on the mirror’s edge. Trust Towson slightly more here, if its tight late, w/ their rebounding and ball security. But I don’t see any edges worth investing on.
FD @ Mt St Mary’s, Mountaineers 2 youngest team in the nation and you would think the Knights should be able to get this done w/ some ease, trying to keep pace in NEC, being only one game out and having whipped these guys once already. But when you see that Farleigh hasn’t been on the road since early this month and its the last home game for MT St Mary, it makes you really hate the spot. Then you step over to sbrodds and notice the line @ 3.5 is short for a reason. Another wary Road fav that will most likely public popular , that I would stay away from.
UIc @ Oak, Hey a PLAY! Oakland as you know has been an over monster last few years, but this is under game. The only negative on the under, is that Grizzlies will get to the line here, and score quite a chunk w/ the clock stopped. However I don’t see the game getting too sloppy, nor will there be many 2nd chance opps. Both teams are actually pretty solid on D in conference, which of course isn’t saying much as its the worst defensive conference in the nation. I think we have a good edge at the current number of 151. I paused for a second to see if the line moves up, but I think sharp money if any will be w/ us. Illinois Chicago / Oakland u151
Hofstra @ Drexel, Pride played 3 OT periods in the last 2 games but plenty of rest for that to have any effect here. Troy Harper out for Dragons? Hofstra is just scary on paper man, Drexel is capable, but if Harper is out, this is probably a rout. Nothing Im interested in playing.
Bryant @ St Francis NY, jeez I capped this game and was like not much here, but then checked line & saw 7.5! dam that’s high, im running.
Mercer @ Vmi, this is just too ugly to study.
NMST @ UMKC, Here is play #2. If NMST is going to lose again this year it will be tomorrow night. This is an Early local start time traveling from NM to KC and first time leaving NM since early Feb. Kangaroos are 6-1 @ home in conference , and Kareem Richardson can coach. They get after you on defense w/o fouling and make you work for everything, the problem is they are all out, and are outta position to box out. Aggies will dominate the boards and get their points in paint, but Roo’s can hang here. They should be able to get the line and execute, while winning the points of turnovers we spoke of. This is a capable team, you have to remember in this conference they have a lot traveling, its why they struggle so much on the road. Great spot to take the 7 points here. UMKC +7 , you can feel free to spread some on the 1h and / or ml. But I think they play tough and have a chance to win for the full 40. I mean NMST only needs one win or a GC and Utah Valley loss to clinch the conference. After this they have auto win in Chicago St. and finish @ home vs Cal Baptist. Lots of angles to back the home dog here.
St. Francis PA @ Wagner, Seahawks are just really bad on paper, and don’t wanna back the road team here either.
Wofford @ Chatt, Terriers just clinched and got into the top 25, can’t back ‘em here. PASS
Greeny @ Citadel, Spartans should get this done, but another bad road fav spot playing in the Bulldogs last home game loaded w/ seniors and an extra prep day. PASS
Elon @ JMU, Dukes look like they should cover this one, but who are they to lay 7, no way they getting my money.
Nebraska @ Michigan, Wolverines should blow out the huskers here, who are awful on the road, Michigan off home loss and NEB off tough game almost upsetting purdue. Michigan -12
Gotta get some sleep, that takes us until the 7:30 EST tips, will check back with those tomorrow afternoon.Comment -
"Nebraska @ Michigan, Wolverines should blow out the huskers here, who are awful on the road, Michigan off home loss and NEB off tough game almost upsetting purdue. Michigan -12"
Nebraska is awful at home this year too. This team has totally fallen apart after the loss of their top player. Coach is fired. It's a mess. Should be a safe play..... especially with Michigan coming off a loss.
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