Oregon State-UTEP Statistical Projections

[Bsims]

I have a system that uses a generalized technique to produce power ratings for different team statistics, then projects them for a particular game. These stats are then converted to points to estimate a score for the game in question. I thought I'd share tonights analysis.

Shooting - OreSt should hit about 42% with UTEP at 45%. UTEP should also outperform OreSt in FT percent and 3 point shots. These total to a 4 point advantage for UTEP.

Rebounding - This also favors UTEP, adding 2-3 points for UTEP.

Fouls - OreSt will fould more and UTEP should do better at the free throw line than they did last game, add another 3 points for UTEP.

Turnovers/Steals/Blocks - OreSt will turn the ball over more and UTEP will have the edge in steals and blocks. This results in an additional net of 5 points for UTEP.

Adding them up, we get UTEP 75.3 and OreSt 61.2. With a spread around 8.5, UTEP is my choice tonight.

[coldhardfacts]

Your logic is sound, but your statistics are wrong.

Oregon State shoots nearly 46.5 percent from the field, and UTEP's opponents shoot nearly 43%. So how do you figure the Beavers will shoot only 42%?

UTEP shoots only 42% from the field, and Oregon State's opponents shoot just under 45%. So how do you figure the Miners will shoot 45%?

[Bsims]

Your logic is sound, but your statistics are wrong.

Oregon State shoots nearly 46.5 percent from the field, and UTEP's opponents shoot nearly 43%. So how do you figure the Beavers will shoot only 42%?

UTEP shoots only 42% from the field, and Oregon State's opponents shoot just under 45%. So how do you figure the Miners will shoot 45%?

The percentages come from a generalized power rating program. It weights previous results based on what the opponent normally allows and the location of the game. I'm looking for numbers that would represent a teams projected number against an average team on a neutral court.

I conclude Oregon State achieved it's 46.5% season average against teams that were slightly below average defensively. The 46.5% also includes their home games. On Wednesday night they shot 43.6% at UTEP. On Monday at home, they shot an outstanding 60.5%. Obviously way above average, and raising their season average.

Hope this answers you question.

[coldhardfacts]

The percentages come from a generalized power rating program. It weights previous results based on what the opponent normally allows and the location of the game. I'm looking for numbers that would represent a teams projected number against an average team on a neutral court.

I conclude Oregon State achieved it's 46.5% season average against teams that were slightly below average defensively. The 46.5% also includes their home games. On Wednesday night they shot 43.6% at UTEP. On Monday at home, they shot an outstanding 60.5%. Obviously way above average, and raising their season average.

Hope this answers you question.

Interesting. It's why sports handicapping is a great challenge. Thousands of different angles, and it sounds like you're onto an auspicious one.

Personally, I'm not willing to concede that the Beavers shooting will completely tank tonight - at least enough to lay the big points - so I'm laying off the game. But good luck.