1/19 ncaa hoops

[2daBank]

just realized 2marro a holiday! dont have to wake up so lets find a play in honor of MLK..


tex-3...trusting horns for second gm in a row, they didnt let me down getting the bounce back win over wvu, now lets see if they can handle actually putting together b2b good performances when they off a big win and on the road, obviously the fear here that the 1 win was enough for them to be feeling themselves again and they sleepwalk thru this gm. such is life when you back a team coached by a loser..

assuming we get the horns A gm this line is short imo, why the hell kp has this as a 1 point tcu win is beyond me.. tcu built that record of theirs playing absolute bottom feeders and have since fallen to earth upon the arrival of conf play, getting wasted at home by wvu, baylor, and dropping a road gm to dog shit kst. all the while getting absolutely abused on the boards, since the start of conf play they are allowing teams to grab offensive rebounds on a insane 44% of their missed shots! that in itself is a recipe for disaster against tex who is among the best rebounding teams in the country. beyond that this a tcu team that relies heavily on getting to the ft line but when they there they only manage to hit 61%. they have no outside gm at all and tex interior d is very stout. scoring gonna be really tough for these frogs.. as always with tex you gotta make sure the team they are facing doesnt have a sf that can exploit holmes playing the 3 and much like wvu tcu doesnt have that guy so dont think there a problem there.. this line opened at -1 which even more crazy, maybe there something im missing but this looks like a 7-8 point tex win to me..


really small card so dunno how many plays there are to find.. as always im more than happy to discuss any gm ya'll would like. looking at the det/ne gm now but not sure if i wanna pull the trigger..

[KRIT]

No idea why Texas is only -3. TCU is pretty garbage. Texas went through a small slump, but in the end they are a top 10 teams. Taking the -3 now before it goes up.

[2daBank]

No idea why Texas is only -3. TCU is pretty garbage. Texas went through a small slump, but in the end they are a top 10 teams. Taking the -3 now before it goes up.

beats the shit out of me,, maybe it should worry me but kenpom has it tcu-1 so i dunno.. i dont get it, way different classes here if tex shows up. they have already proven they can win on the road and starting conf play the way they did doesnt really afford them the luxury of losing winnable gms like this.. like i said i made it way higher, i guess we shall see...

[KRIT]

beats the shit out of me,, maybe it should worry me but kenpom has it tcu-1 so i dunno.. i dont get it, way different classes here if tex shows up. they have already proven they can win on the road and starting conf play the way they did doesnt really afford them the luxury of losing winnable gms like this.. like i said i made it way higher, i guess we shall see...

Yeah it's definitely a square play. Texas is the better team, if it loses then oh well. I thought Isaiah Taylor struggled when he came back from injury, and it made the entire team struggle. When Texas is rolling, they're the best team in that loaded conference. Maybe the only team that can match Kentucky's size.

Can Gtown hang? They're a tough team to figure out.

Imo Oklahoma is better than KU, but Sooners coming off a big win and KU coming off the loss makes me think KU or pass. KU very hard to beat at Allen Fieldhouse.

[KDF500]

Arkansas st +7 at home, looks good to me

[KDF500]

GAS 1-8 ATS on the road..

[2daBank]

Yeah it's definitely a square play. Texas is the better team, if it loses then oh well. I thought Isaiah Taylor struggled when he came back from injury, and it made the entire team struggle. When Texas is rolling, they're the best team in that loaded conference. Maybe the only team that can match Kentucky's size.

Can Gtown hang? They're a tough team to figure out.

Imo Oklahoma is better than KU, but Sooners coming off a big win and KU coming off the loss makes me think KU or pass. KU very hard to beat at Allen Fieldhouse.

i think ku one of the tougher teams to figure out for real. they never look the same when i watch them, hell they look different from one half to the next a lot of the time. they have some solid wins but also some puzzling performances like that temple gm.. im not all that high on Ou but i will say a lot of that is i perceive them as soft and truth is they have played really good defense which i woulda never guessed coming into the season, they def better in that area this year.. ou been shooting a lot better as of late which not a surprise, they really shot it poorly early on. kansas's perimeter d has looked awful shaky to me. i think line feels a little high but like you said ku not a easy place to play and i really prefer 6-7 points to back a dog im not all that confident in winning. gun to my head id prob take the points but most likely a pass..

for a change i really like nova this yr, think they gonna actually make some waves in the tourney as opposed to most years where they home before end of 1st weekend. not sure i wanna lay the road chalk but it them or nothing. they present a lot of problems for the hoyas i think, they can run fat boy up and down the court and render him useless pretty early i think, they will also prob have him in foul trouble so if he not on the bench getting oxygen he be there with foul trouble.. with him out they are gonna be able to attack the rim with ease.

[2daBank]

Arkansas st +7 at home, looks good to me

GAS 1-8 ATS on the road..

they def fit the mold as the kind of team id fade as road favs with that shit defense they play and amount of offensive rebounds they allow. not a good combination to be laying road chalk with.. i agree take the home dog or nothing there..

[KDF500]

they def fit the mold as the kind of team id fade as road favs with that shit defense they play and amount of offensive rebounds they allow. not a good combination to be laying road chalk with.. i agree take the home dog or nothing there..

That was my thought pattern too. I figure the red wolves will be up for this one as well

[2daBank]

really wanna play Detroit in the early degen special.. not just because it early either, in all honesty i would like them far better if this wasnt a day gm traveling to the northeast where im worried they could come out flat.. the big thing for me in that gm is det forces a lot of turnovers and notheastern commits them in bunches.. det been shooting really well from behind the arc as well and again northeastern has been getting lit up allowing teams to shoot almost 38% since the start of conf play.. early start does bother me tho.

[No coincidences]

really wanna play Detroit in the early degen special.. not just because it early either, in all honesty i would like them far better if this wasnt a day gm traveling to the northeast where im worried they could come out flat.. the big thing for me in that gm is det forces a lot of turnovers and notheastern commits them in bunches.. det been shooting really well from behind the arc as well and again northeastern has been getting lit up allowing teams to shoot almost 38% since the start of conf play.. early start does bother me tho.

Agree. If this game was at night, I'd play them. Not sure about the early start though.

I don't get the Texas line either. Now that they're healthy again, they're as good as anyone in the Big 12 -- Kansas and ISU included. Too bad they have a dunce for a coach.

[dawgs777]

how you feel about the duke game?

[2daBank]

how you feel about the duke game?

it a lot of mf'in points.. that was my only feeling, lol..

shit i dunno man. i really didnt look at it much cause of exactly that. i dont think pit very good and they have proven they capable of losing by this number already getting waxed by 18 @ ncst, losing at home to clem by 9, losing by 17 to a sdst team that couldnt score on 5 homeless guys, hoosiers no defense playing asses got them by 12.. obviously they not afraid to get their asses kicked, lol.. that said we talking bout a young duke team that just came off prob their biggest gm of the year and are now staring at a team they know they should be able to walk over. hard to say, the potential for a cover is certainly there but is there any real motivation to do so? easy pass for me..

[2daBank]

think it fair to say puke is better this year than last and pit is far worse. puke beat them by 15 in their gym last season. so again i think the potential is certainly there. just dont know that the motivation to do so is..

[No coincidences]

how you feel about the duke game?

Pitt sucks. Dixon sucks.

[2daBank]

Pitt sucks. Dixon sucks.

yea but this year they being lined accordingly..

[nickcruz60]

TX down to -2.5 now

[2daBank]

TX down to -2.5 now

it opened at -1 so not really a surprise i guess.. i doubt it matters. they either show up and win comfortably or dont and get beat most likely..

[2daBank]

That was my thought pattern too. I figure the red wolves will be up for this one as well

joining you on arky st+7..was waiting to see if number would get little better but looks like it might drop if anything..

[No coincidences]

Clemson has no business being favored by 5 over Florida State. And yes, I know how bad the Seminoles are.

[2daBank]

Clemson has no business being favored by 5 over Florida State. And yes, I know how bad the Seminoles are.

ugh, i dunnno. you prob right, im not sure clem should be 5 point favs vs any team in the conf but you already said it. even thinking bout playing fsu makes my skin crawl..

[2daBank]

gonna go ahead and play det+6 for a half unit.. dont love the start time but i do think it a good matchup for them. hopefully they can turn n.e. over a bunch and get the gm being played closer to their type tempo.

[Razorbacks1]

Hey Bank. Just a quick question for you. What site do you use to see what a line opens up at? Thanks.

[CappinTerp]

Good luck on the Texas game, I just don't understand the low line...Texas -3 only? Everything points to the horns..they are playing better of late and have a solid team,for TCU they are just 3-37 the last 40 reg. season conf. games and just 8-21 last 29 ATS @ home! So only -3 ? Don't know if I will play this one,but thinking TCU is the side for a small play..............as always best of luck.

[CappinTerp]

Clemson has no business being favored by 5 over Florida State. And yes, I know how bad the Seminoles are.

I agree bud....I just dont understand the pricing of these college hoop games over the last 2-3 years. For me it's a real head . And makes capping them harder..........................gl

[TheHumanTripod]

Good luck on the Texas game, I just don't understand the low line...Texas -3 only? Everything points to the horns..they are playing better of late and have a solid team,for TCU they are just 3-37 the last 40 reg. season conf. games and just 8-21 last 29 ATS @ home! So only -3 ? Don't know if I will play this one,but thinking TCU is the side for a small play..............as always best of luck.

Agreed, lower than expected line and most of the money is currently on Texas while then line has dropped to -2.5. Should be TCU or nothing, but is definitely a pass for me.

[2daBank]

Hey Bank. Just a quick question for you. What site do you use to see what a line opens up at? Thanks.

if you go to the sbr odds page you can click on the line of any book you choose and see where they opened it and when it moved.. i generally look at BOL these days as i think they come with openers faster than anyone..

[2daBank]

Good luck on the Texas game, I just don't understand the low line...Texas -3 only? Everything points to the horns..they are playing better of late and have a solid team,for TCU they are just 3-37 the last 40 reg. season conf. games and just 8-21 last 29 ATS @ home! So only -3 ? Don't know if I will play this one,but thinking TCU is the side for a small play..............as always best of luck.

yea i dont disagree with you, im certainly on the square side of this one. lot of times i will pass when that the case and im not feeling it, sometimes the numbers speak loudly enough that i dont care, i mean square sides cash quite often and the horns rebounding edge and slow start in conf play were enough for me to go ahead and take the plunge on what im sure is the overwhelming popular side. im all for being against the majority but i cant be contrarian just for the sake of it, i have to be able to back the play up and i really cant justify the tcu side in this one. doesnt mean im right tho, we shall see..

[2daBank]

Agreed, lower than expected line and most of the money is currently on Texas while then line has dropped to -2.5. Should be TCU or nothing, but is definitely a pass for me.

not that it matters much to me but the site i look at has 59-41 split.. that not so bad. it when we talking 70-80% of the bets is when i get really nervous.. it didnt drop to 2.5 as it opened at -1 so it just got some push back at -3. not sure why that means it tcu or nothing? again i get the contrarian angle as quite often you will see me on the far less popular side, however im never there just because im going against the grain, im there because i have legitimate reasons for being so. the fact it the popular side, or looks trappy, or whatever ya wanna call it has never been and never will be enough of a reason for me to make a play. passing i understand, and if you got gm related reasons for liking tcu other than that by all means, im certainly wrong plenty. im just not a buyer in that philosophy without something sound behind it as i think simply betting like that will land ya bout same place flipping a coin would..

[leetreaper]

TCU were 0-17 vs common opponents last year, granted they are playing better this year, it's still Texas or nothing.
With that poor FT percentage I don't see how they can hang.

[2daBank]

mf'in det hit a shot to send gm to ot.. id have been perfectly happy with them losing by 2. now gotta sweat out the thing i hate most, a dog in ot..

[Knamelis]

Was thinking the same thing.

[leetreaper]

mf'in det hit a shot to send gm to ot.. id have been perfectly happy with them losing by 2. now gotta sweat out the thing i hate most, a dog in ot..

Yep, got +6.0 also.

[2daBank]

Yep, got +6.0 also.

not gonna lie i sprinkled the ml too (which pretty common for me when playing a dog less than 7) but id rather have just lost that, lol..

[2daBank]

stealing a stat i saw posted elsewhere talking bout the tex gm, i didnt know it, just saw it but looked kinda fascinating. tex is 144-21 vs in-state opponents during rick barnes era..