CBB - Sunday, 1/4/15

[LT Profits]

1 CBB Play Sunday

South Dakota State +4 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 85-66-4, +16.22

[Big Bear]

LT be honest....

have you seen a South Dakota State basketball game this season?

just curious... i dont think i have ever seen them on tv.

which leads to my next question , how do u come up with a play like this? Is it strictly line movement and stats?

[Big Bear]

whatever it is you do to generate these plays keep it up.

up 16 units is impressive. This must be your best sport.

[jimminn]

I don't know about this one. I just read the post from Omar the wizard and he is on the opposite side of this pick. I will just watch this one to see who has the most powerful magic and see who gets this one right. Thanks for all the other great picks. Easy money tailing you.

[CarterTown]

Jesus! LT I'm rolling with you, Don't let these moped get in your head. In addition may i just say is bad form to question a guys pick when you're tailing him.

[CarterTown]

[LT Profits]

2 CBB Additions

3 CBB Plays Sunday

Wis.-Milwaukee +7.5 -105 (5 Dimes)
South Dakota State +4 +100 (Heritage)
Washington State +9.5 +100 (Heritage)

[LT Profits]

Note that Milwaukee has been moved up to 1:00 ET.

[LT Profits]

LT be honest....

have you seen a South Dakota State basketball game this season?

just curious... i dont think i have ever seen them on tv.

which leads to my next question , how do u come up with a play like this? Is it strictly line movement and stats?

Everything I do is off of stats, watching games is overrated anyway.

[LT Profits]

whatever it is you do to generate these plays keep it up.

up 16 units is impressive. This must be your best sport.

60% and almost +26 in NFL this season even after Steelers loss.

[LT Profits]

60% and almost +26 in NFL this season even after Steelers loss.

Also going 8-1 in Bowl games bailed out my CFB season. Could have been 9-0 too, tough loss with BYU.

[No coincidences]

Everything I do is off of stats, watching games is overrated anyway.

[lakerboy]

profits you are doing some work this year

[DOM_Toretto]

Everything I do is off of stats, watching games is overrated anyway.

Wow I respect LT's NCAAB picks but this is the dumbest thing I've read all day. And I just read a thread about people thinking Ohio state had pot leaves on their helmets.

[LT Profits]

Wow I respect LT's NCAAB picks but this is the dumbest thing I've read all day. And I just read a thread about people thinking Ohio state had pot leaves on their helmets.

What exactly is so dumb? For someone that uses stats to make picks, sometimes watching games can skew your perception. I didn't say I don't watch games (except for baseball which I hardly watched until the post-season), but I don't do it as a handicapping tool.

[DOM_Toretto]

What exactly is so dumb? For someone that uses stats to make picks, sometimes watching games can skew your perception. I didn't say I don't watch games (except for baseball which I hardly watched until the post-season), but I don't do it as a handicapping tool.

Watching games gives the highest edge. Anyone can look up stats if they want to but most people don't put the time into actually watching teams.

Stats say SDSU is one of best defensive teams in country, so you should back them. I've watched them miss tons of layups and dunks and wide open shots, and have been fading them successfully all year.

Stats show MSU is a top team. Watching them fail to finish over and over leads me to believe they don't have heart.

Stats show D'Angelo Russell from Ohio St. is a top freshman but I've seen him flop numerous times, miss big shots and make stupid turnovers in clutch times.

Other games I've seen teams throw balls out of bounds on their own stupidity, yet the other team get stats for 'forcing' turnovers. Some teams make clutch shots late in games, others get unlucky.

There's a lot more to every story than simple box scores.

[No coincidences]

Watching games gives the highest edge. Anyone can look up stats if they want to but most people don't put the time into actually watching teams.

Stats say SDSU is one of best defensive teams in country, so you should back them. I've watched them miss tons of layups and dunks and wide open shots, and have been fading them successfully all year.

Stats show MSU is a top team. Watching them fail to finish over and over leads me to believe they don't have heart.

Stats show D'Angelo Russell from Ohio St. is a top freshman but I've seen him flop numerous times, miss big shots and make stupid turnovers in clutch times.

Other games I've seen teams throw balls out of bounds on their own stupidity, yet the other team get stats for 'forcing' turnovers. Some teams make clutch shots late in games, others get unlucky.

There's a lot more to every story than simple box scores.

Exactly.

Imagine where LT would be if he actually watched games. But I've had this conversation with him a million times over and he obviously isn't going to change.

[lakerboy]

Exactly.

Imagine where LT would be if he actually watched games. But I've had this conversation with him a million times over and he obviously isn't going to change.

i agree with lt.

[pavyracer]

You got to watch games if you want to be at the next level like us. Stats are good but they don't coach or play the game.

[2daBank]

Exactly.

Imagine where LT would be if he actually watched games. But I've had this conversation with him a million times over and he obviously isn't going to change.

i agree with lt,, honestly the more i watch the more my capping tends to suffer. way better to let numbers do the talking than let your eyes and biases get in the way.. obviously i watch a ton of college hoops cause i love it but when im actually capping the gms very little if any of it involves what i have seen.

[KDF500]

To be fair, why fix what isn't broken .

[LT Profits]

The thing is, I am not a "feel" or "gut" bettor or whatever you want to call it. So since all my capping is stat based, there is nothing that would benefit my capping by watching games. But again, I DO watch games, and quite often too (except baseball), but there is nothing than can mess up objectivity more than watching a blowout, either by or against a certain team.

[THam12]

Dont understand why people are so surprised?
Isnt it obvious LT uses statistical analysis in all of his picks? Its clear to me atleast.

And if you bet solely based on watching games, then you probably aren't doing too well.

[2daBank]

south dakota st seems like a odd play,, 5th road gm in a row and facing a ndst team that never loses at home and only catching 4 points?

[LT Profits]

south dakota st seems like a odd play,, 5th road gm in a row and facing a ndst team that never loses at home and only catching 4 points?

I get the road trip, but I chose to ignore it because SDST would be 0-2 in the Summit with a loss, so I am assuming a full effort, especially with the trip spaced out (almost a week off before last game). So looking just at the numbers, they are very close but South faced a much stronger SOS, even covering the spreads at Utah and Northern Iowa. And remember that North is not playing at Bison Arena the next two years. Yes they are 7-0 at their temporary home (5-0 vs. Division I) but this could be stiffest test looking at who they have beaten.

[THam12]

I get the road trip, but I chose to ignore it because SDST would be 0-2 in the Summit with a loss, so I am assuming a full effort, especially with the trip spaced out (almost a week off before last game). So looking just at the numbers, they are very close but South faced a much stronger SOS, even covering the spreads at Utah and Northern Iowa. And remember that North is not playing at Bison Arena the next two years. Yes they are 7-0 at their temporary home (5-0 vs. Division I) but this could be stiffest test looking at who they have beaten.

Good analysis here....
and its a rivalry game..
and no dak state lost a TON from last years squad

[raydog]

here is the thing... sportbook models dont watch games... its all stats... and thats okay, but im not positive you can put the most accurate hca on small conf/mid majors without some viewing... i prefer to watch the smaller conf. games because i feel their hca is typically undervalued... and ras and other top model groups place more focus on this area, so i do too.. my line on the small conf. teams is almost never the same as cris...and its been massive to the bankroll...

but thats it.. there is no need to watch big conf. rivalry games and shit like that..you arent learning anything from watching duke/unc wherever they are playing anymore... as far as lines go in those games, its useless ,imo

[2daBank]

I get the road trip, but I chose to ignore it because SDST would be 0-2 in the Summit with a loss, so I am assuming a full effort, especially with the trip spaced out (almost a week off before last game). So looking just at the numbers, they are very close but South faced a much stronger SOS, even covering the spreads at Utah and Northern Iowa. And remember that North is not playing at Bison Arena the next two years. Yes they are 7-0 at their temporary home (5-0 vs. Division I) but this could be stiffest test looking at who they have beaten.

fair enough,, my biggest thing was the 5th straight road tilt against a team that always tough at home (honestly didnt realize they were playing at a different venue these next 2 years so thanks for pointing that out). . my other problem with s.dak would be they get a lot of their points from the line and ndst doesnt foul a whole lot.. looked to me like a gm where it would come down to who shot the trey better, both get a lot of points from behind the arc and neither defend it well. i usually lean home team in such cases. gonna pass cause you right ndst been feasting on bottom feeders at home, figured it was business as usual for them at home but didnt realize they wernt playing at bison these next couple years. hope you cash it man. gl

[pavyracer]

I'd rather watch games on big screen TV than work spreadsheets with stats on the laptop. It's more fun. Trust me.

[oChRoNiCo]

The thing is, I am not a "feel" or "gut" bettor or whatever you want to call it. So since all my capping is stat based, there is nothing that would benefit my capping by watching games. But again, I DO watch games, and quite often too (except baseball), but there is nothing than can mess up objectivity more than watching a blowout, either by or against a certain team.

LT you don't need to explain yourself at all keep doing what you do I can personally say I appreciate what you do. Your plays speak for themselves!

[HeeluvaGuy]

I don't have the track record of many on this forum, but I think CBB lends itself to a heavy reliance on statistical analysis because of the sheer number of teams and games. With 350+ teams playing a couple of games per week, stats become pretty meaningful after a couple of weeks of games. (For example, there are 366 games this week.)

Don't know if that's where LT is coming from, but it makes a lot of sense to me. That said, I agree that it's more fun to watch the games...

[LT Profits]

I'd rather watch games on big screen TV than work spreadsheets with stats on the laptop. It's more fun. Trust me.

Fun, definitely. Profitable....?

[smitch124]

You couldn't possibly watch all the games you would need to if you used that as your primary handicapping tool.

[dect6.0]

Wow I respect LT's NCAAB picks but this is the dumbest thing I've read all day. And I just read a thread about people thinking Ohio state had pot leaves on their helmets.

Hey Dom, where exactly is your thread showing you are up +16 units or more?

[jimminn]

Well so much for Omar the wizard getting that call right. You beat him on this one. Sure didn't look like it early. Good call