NCAAB Kenpom Pyth Discrepancies 2014-2015

[mth61]

lets do it

[RestlessSpirit]

RestLess do you go through every game or how do you decide which games?

Up till now I've just ran it on match up I think the line may be off or ones that seem to have a lot of the publics interest on here or other sites. With that though, does KenPoms give any insight as to predicted score or outcome? If so I'll sign up to help with game selection. Regardless, I wana sign up for it.

[RestlessSpirit]

Sounds good bud! Lets expose the value plays and get some winners!

I'm all about doing that... I'll post any game outcomes I run and I'll run it on ones you all see value in as well.

Let make some money and GL fellas.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm all about doing that... I'll post any game outcomes I run and I'll run it on ones you all see value in as well.

Let make some money and GL fellas.

Would you mind running the Pitt game? I'd like to check my results. Thx.

[RestlessSpirit]

Would you mind running the Pitt game? I'd like to check my results. Thx.

I've got it at-
Dqu - 65
Pitt - 85 (82 + 3pts home court adv)

What about yourself?

[HeeluvaGuy]

I've got it at-
Dqu - 65
Pitt - 85 (82 + 3pts home court adv)

What about yourself?

Same. Such a large discrepancy I thought my formulas were off.

[RJSingle]

Not nitpicking but the game (Pitt) is on a neutral court. It's not a Pitt home game.

[RestlessSpirit]

Same. Such a large discrepancy I thought my formulas were off.

Two others I ran on this game taking neatrual court into it say the line should be:
Pitt -7.44
Pitt -12.98

[RestlessSpirit]

Not nitpicking but the game (Pitt) is on a neutral court. It's not a Pitt home game.

Thank you sir, I didn't see that.

[superbowl3056]

Sorry for the delay on breaking down the AOPR analysis I previously spoke of, but I am just now having time to type this out. I'd first like to state that I take absolutely no ownership of this and actually just randomly ran across it while doing a web search looking for an analysis of its type. I am sure a lot of you either use it or something similar when trying to calculate projected scoring outcomes of games. I began using it full force a few days back, as it needs 5+ games of data to be effective and should get better as more games are played. It has been rather accurate thus far.

So this is how I understand the analysis and use it myself. Once I select a game I want to look at I do the following.

1) Get each teams strength of schedule thus far. I use sagarini's.
2) Get each teams ppg offense and defensive numbers
3) Divide the higher SOS by the lower SOS. This gives you a way to get the two teams on an equal playing field and give you an SOS differential.
4) Divide each teams offensive scoring by the D1 average, which I use 71 ppg.
5) Multiple each teams offensive results against the SOS differential number
6) Now add the SOS differential to PPG calculation of the team with the higher SOS and subtract the SOS differential from the PPG calculation of the team with a lower SOS to give you a new PPG for each team taking SOS into the analysis
7) Lastly you multiple each teams NEW PPG by their opponents Defensive PPG to get a total projected score of the game. Then add in 3 points to the home team for home court advantage.

So for an example I'll use the Butler vs Indiana State game from 12/3.

Butler -
Sos - 73.08
Off PPG - 72.7
Def PPG - 54.5

Indiana State-
Sos- 69.32
Off PPG - 66.3
Def PPG - 69.7

3) 73.08 / 69.32 = 1.054
OSS differential= .054

4) Butler - 73.08 / 71 = 1.024
IN. St. - 69.32 / 71 = .976

5) Multiple by OSS Differential
Butler - 1.024 x .054 = .055
IN. St. - .976 x .054 = .053

6) Add differential to higher SOS and subtract from lower SOS
Butler - 1.024 + .055 = 1.079
IN. St. - .976 - .053 = .923

7) Multiple new PPG to opponents Def PPG to get projected score.
Butler - 1.079 x 69.7 = 75
IN. ST. - .976 x 54.5 = 53
- add +3 for home court advantage

Projected score
Butler 75
IN. St. 56

From their, like with the KenPom I look for game that have major differences between projected score and spread. I have played this analysis and gone 6-1 with it. Dayton was the one game that was a lose and it was substantially in their favor.

Please let me know of any fine tuning or fallacies in this approach as it's always a learning process.

Restless, for step 4 you say divide each teams scoring by the division 1 average. it looks like you took SOS instead of teams scoring average and divided it by the 71. Did you just do this wrong in the example or are you supposed to take SOS, not scoring average?

[RJSingle]

These formulas don't account for a team missing 17 free throws or the opposing team shooting 67% from three. They give a great idea on what should happen but always expect the unexpected.

[RestlessSpirit]

Restless, for step 4 you say divide each teams scoring by the division 1 average. it looks like you took SOS instead of teams scoring average and divided it by the 71. Did you just do this wrong in the example or are you supposed to take SOS, not scoring average?

Thanks for catching that, I did it incorrectly when writing out the calculation from excel.

You are correct. You take the PPG average and divide it by the D1 averages. This gives you the NEW PPG calculation you use through the rest of the equation.

I updated it on my original post, as well as the example so let me know if it still doesn't look correct but it should. I get lost in the numbers sometimes.

[superbowl3056]

Thanks for catching that, I did it incorrectly when writing out the calculation from excel.

You are correct. You take the PPG average and divide it by the D1 averages. This gives you the NEW PPG calculation you use through the rest of the equation.

I updated it on my original post, as well as the example so let me know if it still doesn't look correct but it should. I get lost in the numbers sometimes.

could you run the calculation for the texas-kentucky game when you get a chance? I got it at 64-44 kentucky, just want to make sure I'm doing it right

[RestlessSpirit]

could you run the calculation for the texas-kentucky game when you get a chance? I got it at 64-44 kentucky, just want to make sure I'm doing it right

Sure man. Your calculation seems to be a little high for UKs score so I'll break down the calculation for you real quick. One thought though is I expect these scores to be higher on the game then predicted primarily due to their low def ppg allowed. This is probably due to playing relatively bad teams and keeping their scores extremely low.

Tx -
Sos - 72.59
Off ppg - 72.6
Def ppg - 52.6

UK -
Sos - 70.01
Off ppg - 79
Def ppg - 44.6

3) Sos differential
72.59 / 70.01 = 1.037
Differential - .037

4) Off ppg divided by D1 avg
Tx-
72.6 / 71 = 1.023

UK-
79 / 71 = 1.113

5) Differential calculation
Tx - 1.023 x .037 = .038
UK - 1.113 x .037 = .041

6) new ppg with differential
- add to higher sos and subtract from lower
Tx-
1.023 + .038 = 1.061

UK-
1.113 - .041 = 1.072

7) Predicted score -
Tx - 1.061 x 44.6 = 47
UK - 1.072 x 52.6 = 56
Add in home court +3

Tx - 47
UK - 59

I expect it to be +10-20 points higher.

Please let me know if anything looks off or if it helps clarify anything.

[RestlessSpirit]

No games seem to stand out much tonight.

The best one from predictions is probably FIU +29.5 @ lousiville, but I'm not even sure about that. 29.5 is a lot of points to give up, especially after coming of such a hyped up game earlier in the week. I could see them coming out a little flat.

[HaiLua]

RestlessSpirit, How many points different between your equation points and the spread in order to become a pick? Thanks for sharing and GL

[gtcat]

Check Coastal Carolina/Auburn. Am I wrong that, based on this formula, the wrong team is favored? I have Auburn +6 instead of -6.

[RJSingle]

Auburn is terrible and has been terrible. Coastal Carolina has been a great program. This formula and spread are right.

[superbowl3056]

Sure man. Your calculation seems to be a little high for UKs score so I'll break down the calculation for you real quick. One thought though is I expect these scores to be higher on the game then predicted primarily due to their low def ppg allowed. This is probably due to playing relatively bad teams and keeping their scores extremely low.

Tx -
Sos - 72.59
Off ppg - 72.6
Def ppg - 52.6

UK -
Sos - 70.01
Off ppg - 79
Def ppg - 44.6

3) Sos differential
72.59 / 70.01 = 1.037
Differential - .037

4) Off ppg divided by D1 avg
Tx-
72.6 / 71 = 1.023

UK-
79 / 71 = 1.113

5) Differential calculation
Tx - 1.023 x .037 = .038
UK - 1.113 x .037 = .041

6) new ppg with differential
- add to higher sos and subtract from lower
Tx-
1.023 + .038 = 1.061

UK-
1.113 - .041 = 1.072

7) Predicted score -
Tx - 1.061 x 44.6 = 47
UK - 1.072 x 52.6 = 56
Add in home court +3

Tx - 47
UK - 59

I expect it to be +10-20 points higher.

Please let me know if anything looks off or if it helps clarify anything.

gotcha, thanks. I was adding the differential to kentucky and subtracting from texas, that explains why mine was higher. thanks for clarifying

[RestlessSpirit]

Check Coastal Carolina/Auburn. Am I wrong that, based on this formula, the wrong team is favored? I have Auburn +6 instead of -6.

Nope, you are correct. The calculation is right. You have the potential of running into this during the early season, as the data set of games is rather small. I compared it to two other numbers i calculate and they both have them at about Aub -4.5 or so. Honestly, this is a no touch game.

[RestlessSpirit]

RestlessSpirit, How many points different between your equation points and the spread in order to become a pick? Thanks for sharing and GL

Right now with this equation, I strongly consider games that are 4+ off the spread and consider games that are off by 3.5. I consider this my buffer room. I also compare it to two others I run and confirm them with these, which also have a built in buffer. If all 3 hit, its a definite play, if two hit and I like the match up its a play.

[spankmythighs]

Sorry guys had a family dinner. I am really more into the totals thread I have going which is now 15-1 after tonight. But I do like where this thread is going. Its really all about finding bookie mistakes.

[spankmythighs]

If you have a Bet365 acct I would really recommend getting a Kenpom sub and using the predicted scores against the listed totals and inplay totals.

[dzuke155]

Can you get an account at bet365 if you live in the United states??

[spankmythighs]

I dont think u can.

[dzuke155]

I am on 5Dimes and they do not have the live lines like you are talking about.

[superbowl3056]

I am on 5Dimes and they do not have the live lines like you are talking about.

5dimes most definitely have live lines, just not for every game. all you have to do is click the "sportsbook" tab at top of the page and click on "live betting extra"

[dzuke155]

Thanks will check it out

[alamo]

Can you get an account at bet365 if you live in the United states??

Dont think they deal with United States as its illiegal to gamble in America (can never understand why people call it land of the free).

[Tboonepickem]

Dont think they deal with United States as its illiegal to gamble in America (can never understand why people call it land of the free).

nice