NCAAB Totals using KENPOM 2014-2015

[Kicks8901]

I think the idea is worth considering for those of us that don't use a site that offers a lot of these totals. I did one last night with the UNC over and it worked out alright. Obviously it should be back tested which I don't have the time to do but if a line is close and you can tease it up it could work.

[spankmythighs]

Well I will keep testing it and post it on the side. Went 1-1 yesterday with my regular system. OVERS are alot harder to hit. The one thing with UNDERS is that their tempo never really changes much hence less scoring opportunities. With OVERS they gotta be shooting well.

[spankmythighs]

Went 7 for 7 on UNDERS where I added 10 points last night. 2 gms even went to OT.

[spankmythighs]

I can also go back and backtest this using Kenpom and bet365 archives

[Yons18]

Have any picks for today yet?

[spankmythighs]

Not yet

[spankmythighs]

Check back around 5pm est.

[Kicks8901]

Right, especially unders.

[bobtoma]

1st half unders have been hitting

[spankmythighs]

1st half unders have been hitting

Are u using Kenpom?

[BamaCBass]

Interesting. Maybe divide game spreads and totals by two and see what value exists relative to KP. Guessing thats what Bob is doing for 1st half unders. Could look at discrepancies of 5 pts or more.

[spankmythighs]

Ya I like that too. They dont have all the games posted yet on Bet365. Check back in an hour.

[jds07v]

1st half totals are always less than 50% of the posted game total so I dont think you can just cut clean in half. Game totals at 120 are 56 for 1st half. It's close, but thats an 8 point difference between implied 1st and 2nd half lines

[spankmythighs]

Ya it all depends on blowouts and close gms too in 2nd half. Tempo is the key though

[spankmythighs]

Nothing yet on early gms. I do have 5 games for the +10 pts strategy so here is what I have:

Florida UNDER 135
Drexel UNDER 132
Oakland UNDER 148
Richmond UNDER 125
W. Kentucky UNDER 145.5

[spankmythighs]

All of those gms were 3 points or more higher than Kenpom suggested. So add 10 and take UNDER

[spankmythighs]

I did 2, 2 game combos which came out to -130 and -125 each. I also did a 5 gm combo with all of them.

[Yons18]

I really like this strategy. I think if you find the right games, it's pretty much gold. Works well for high scoring teams and subtracting the 10 and taking the over as well, even though you'll probably find it to be more consistent with under plays.

[spankmythighs]

Got a couple 7:30pm est gms too for 10 pt strategy

E. Illinois UNDER 131.5
Morehead UNDER 136

[O]

they all dropped like flys.

[allidoiswin89]

Out of curiosity, how long have you guys been betting? Im telling you right now to abort this buy points/teaser strategy...

[spankmythighs]

Abort abort haha no chance

[BamaCBass]

Out of curiosity, how long have you guys been betting? Im telling you right now to abort this buy points/teaser strategy...

Honestly gotta agree as teasers are usually a one way ticket to Brokedik Town. Would say two teamers as absolute last resort if ANY potential actually exists.

[spankmythighs]

Im just creating plays using my original strategy when they are no plays. Yes only 2 gm plays.

[BamaCBass]

All for whatever opportunity provided its positive. Only agreeing from experience. Sounds like original concept may have promise so keep testing and GL OP.

[allidoiswin89]

So how did yesterday go? Can there be different records for the different strategies you are running?

[spankmythighs]

Its no go. Sticking to original plan.

[allidoiswin89]

tried to warn ya

[spankmythighs]

tried to warn ya

Haha ya I know

[spankmythighs]

Really like Michigan UNDER 122.5. Not official but a heavy lean

[drfunkmaster]

On the over. Easy

[spankmythighs]

On the over. Easy

Haha yup easy. Michigan UNDER cash it!

[Tboonepickem]

Haha easy. Love when degens use that word in college hoops

[spankmythighs]

Leaning BYU OVER 145. Almost a system play

[spankmythighs]

BYU OVER cash it!