Good job dude
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Ive used kenpom similarly, but for ats. Unfortunately, there were some good years and there were some bad years...kind of like phil steeles projections this year. So I would do a backtest.
Either way love the work as I usually look at the same thing when I find a tool that I usually regularly cap games with...always trying to find that extra edge.
A couple of questions though...are you following the three game chase as mentioned in the beginning? I dont see a record posted for that. Also, I dont mind the 2nd half plays if they meet your criteria but that seems like your opening yourself up to missing plays, especially when there is a large card, no?
Finally, ive created several systems and controbuted to several on this site....I think its important to go based off of opening lines or at least the lines once it has settled. To be shopping for a line once its bet one way to get a direction could simply be opening yourself up for being on the wrong side due to injuires or something that isnt easily seen on the surface.
Love the work, keep it upComment -
No I dont really dabble in halves. As far as the chase goes, I havent had 3 gms in a row where I have lost except when I was trying WNCAAB.sbrComment -
*Alert*
Norfolk St UNDER 128.5
KENPOM=115sbrComment -
Dont hate Savannah St. UNDER 125.5 and Campbell UNDER 130.5 eithersbrComment -
Are those suggested plays? Or system plays? And is there a certain time u post the plays or is this a crapshoot when it comes to knowing when the plays areComment -
Norfolk is a system playsbrComment -
Tough loss. New record 33 - 12sbrComment -
Sorry 32 - 12sbrComment -
Ill be watching for alerts tomorrow. An actual card tomorrowComment -
Kenpom already has the totals released and they are usually when u wake up. Is there something else we are waiting on?Comment -
Totals on the books arent usually up till late morning.sbrComment -
Im leaning OVER on the Hoosiers game.sbrComment -
Is this an official play?Comment -
Nope not yet.sbrComment -
Perea is out for Indiana so the OVER might be a strugglesbrComment -
????Comment -
*Alert*
ARMY OVER 129.5
KENPOM=140sbrComment -
Army has gone OVER 130 all yr.sbrComment -
Line already jumped to 133.5sbrComment -
Where the heck are you even getting that line lol. There isnt a single book in vegas posting that game...Comment -
Bet365 big guy. One of the best.sbrComment -
Vegas sportsbooks are terrible. Stick to 5Dimes and Bet365 if you can. Bookmaker is good too.sbrComment -
Army gm now at 136.5 wowsbrComment -
Still lots of totals to be posted. Stay tuned.
sbrComment -
so is Army at 136.5 still a goComment -
Army was a go @ OVER 129.5 when I posted it. No longer.sbrComment -
*Alert*
DAVIDSON OVER 150.5
KENPOM=161sbrComment -
Davidson is gonna need OT to hit that numberComment -
No OT on Davidson gm but got it in the Army gm. OVER 129.5 cash it!sbrComment -
Did some testing with using additional totals on Bet365 tonight. On Bet365 u can go 10 points above or 10 points below the posted total for
a particular gm with added juice. So I did a few 2 and 3 gm combos with gms where the posted total was only 3 or 4 pts off of the Kenpom posted total. I hit every UNDER using this process. Adding 10 pts to the total usually comes in at -280 to -300. Just some food for thought.sbrComment -
I have read a lot about this and the experts would always advise to never buy points in a total as you get hammered on juice. It makes sense as when you think about it it's rare a total missed by two or three points and therefore the odds are heavily against paying juice. Hope this helps !Comment -
Yea that wont long term...you need tl back test a system for a minimum of 5 years...not a sample size where you might just get lucky...Comment -
Why not just do a ten point teaser? If you're going to buy points and parlay, you might as well do a 4 (-120) or 5 (+115) [depending on book you play at] and make more money off of it. It's not a bad idea you've got and could definitely be worth a shot on large card days like Wednesdays and Saturdays.Comment
