NCAAB Totals using KENPOM 2014-2015

[spankmythighs]

So I have been doing some testing with NCAAB Totals @ Bet365 and comparing them to FanMatch predicted scores at kenpom.com. What I look for is double-digit discrepancies. So if a line for a certain game is 140 and the FanMatch predicted score total is 126, I will bet the UNDER 140. It looks quite promising after doing some backtesting. I have also considered a 3 Total chase using the highest discrepancies from each night. Lets give it a shot. When I have time I will go back and check the Totals from beginning of the year till now.

[alamo]

Good luck buddy. Always interesting threads to follow.

[labones00]

Might want to look at the predictions on covers.com

[spankmythighs]

So here are my backtested results. I think you guys are gonna love this!

NOV 14 - NO PLAY
NOV 15 - NO PLAY
NOV 16 - WV OVER 128.5 (KP 142) WIN (KP=KENPOM PREDICTED SCORE)
NOV 17 - JAMES MADISON OVER 125.5 (KP 140) WIN
NOV 18 - NO PLAY
NOV 19 - ARMY OVER 142.5 (KP 155) WIN
NOV 20 - NO PLAY
NOV 21 - NO PLAY
NOV 22 - M. TENN UNDER 134.5 (KP 120) WIN
NOV 23 - FORDHAM UNDER 138.5 (KP 124) WIN, SEATTLE UNDER 140.5 (KP 124) WIN
NOV 24 - SAN DIEGO UNDER 144.5 (KP 134) LOSS
NOV 25 - CINCY UNDER 132.5 (KP 117) WIN, HARTFORD UNDER 137.5 (KP 126) WIN
NOV 26 - NO PLAY
NOV 27 - NO PLAY
NOV 28 - TX SOUTHERN UNDER 146.5 (KP 132) WIN
NOV 29 - LSU OVER 134.5 (KP 147) WIN
NOV 30 - PRINCETON UNDER 135.5 (KP 123) WIN

OVERALL RECORD - 11-1 FOR NOVEMBER

[labones00]

So here are my backtested results. I think you guys are gonna love this!

NOV 14 - NO PLAY
NOV 15 - NO PLAY
NOV 16 - WV OVER 128.5 (KP 142) WIN (KP=KENPOM PREDICTED SCORE)
NOV 17 - JAMES MADISON OVER 125.5 (KP 140) WIN
NOV 18 - NO PLAY
NOV 19 - ARMY OVER 142.5 (KP 155) WIN
NOV 20 - NO PLAY
NOV 21 - NO PLAY
NOV 22 - M. TENN UNDER 134.5 (KP 120) WIN
NOV 23 - FORDHAM UNDER 138.5 (KP 124) WIN, SEATTLE UNDER 140.5 (KP 124) WIN
NOV 24 - SAN DIEGO UNDER 144.5 (KP 134) LOSS
NOV 25 - CINCY UNDER 132.5 (KP 117) WIN, HARTFORD UNDER 137.5 (KP 126) WIN
NOV 26 - NO PLAY
NOV 27 - NO PLAY
NOV 28 - TX SOUTHERN UNDER 146.5 (KP 132) WIN
NOV 29 - LSU OVER 134.5 (KP 147) WIN
NOV 30 - PRINCETON UNDER 135.5 (KP 123) WIN

OVERALL RECORD - 11-1 FOR NOVEMBER

Good work! I know it's a very small sample size but hard to argue with 11-1, I'm going to follow what you're doing here. BOL

[spankmythighs]

So with a 3 game chase this strategy would be 12-0 for november. Thats pretty awesome.

[spankmythighs]

Good work! I know it's a very small sample size but hard to argue with 11-1, I'm going to follow what you're doing here. BOL

Sounds gd bud. I will post 5 to 10 minutes before game time if there is a play.

[spankmythighs]

Probably nothing tonight. Small sheet.

[alamo]

Sounds gd bud. I will post 5 to 10 minutes before game time if there is a play.

Good work buddy. Just one ques the 5/10 minute is a tight window. Is there any chance that could be brought out to 30mins (approx) before tip or is the Ken pom dependent on closing numbers ?

[spankmythighs]

Ya I can do 30 min to an hour. Line wont change much within that time frame.

[alamo]

Ya I can do 30 min to an hour. Line wont change much within that time frame.

Thats good news bro. Gives a wider window and people plenty of time to check in and get plays on, As you say lines really dont move anyway in the final hour on most games

[Heandog]

post the plays in advance some systems do actually work.

[spankmythighs]

post the plays in advance some systems do actually work.

Will do Hean

[spankmythighs]

Will post any plays today an hour before hand.

[chalk46]

Good stuff. Need more of this type and less hoopla

[spankmythighs]

Just be patient as there may be days with no games

[spankmythighs]

Like today for instance. I dont think we will have a play.

[spankmythighs]

More totals being released though.

[spankmythighs]

This one was just released:

BET365 - JAMES MADISON TOTAL 144.5
KENPOM SUGGESTED TOTAL 131

TAKE JAMES MADISON UNDER 144.5 @ -110 FOR 5 UNITS

[spankmythighs]

This one was just released:

BET365 - JAMES MADISON TOTAL 144.5
KENPOM SUGGESTED TOTAL 131

TAKE JAMES MADISON UNDER 144.5 @ -110 FOR 5 UNITS

Game is at 7 pm ET

[spankmythighs]

Just a heads up, after I placed my bet UNDER 144.5 the line dropped to 141.5. Still a double digit discrepancy

[RetardStrength]

My book doesn't have... Poop

[spankmythighs]

My book doesn't have... Poop

Who do u use?

[spankmythighs]

*alert*

college of charleston total 128.5 on bet365
kenpom suggested score - 109

charleston under 128.5 @ -110 for 5 units

[Scott8282]

My book doesn't have that game either. Any other plays?

[spankmythighs]

Just those 2 for now. I will be combing through the rest of the night.

[spankmythighs]

All of my plays are via Bet365.

[badgerguy]

Mine either. Fail on my part. It's got the spread no totals

[spankmythighs]

You guys from the States?

[mrlif1]

got the games spreads, no o/u...hmm, dont see it listed on betonline either.

[badgerguy]

Yes live in WI. Use Bovada. That's probably my issue!

[badgerguy]

Anyway good luck. I was really interested in following this

[spankmythighs]

Thanks bud. Ya you guys get screwed down there on what books you can use. Its a bit of a joke.

[Scott8282]

keep me posted how these play out even though i can't bet them. very interested in your system.

[spankmythighs]

James Madison playin like garbage. Dont mind that.