2014-15 NCAA hoop plays

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 08:01 PM

I need to retire.

Ball State down 8 with 1:22 left and doesn't even come close to covering.

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 08:04 PM

Bowling Green now 19-6 ATS, and that's not even the best in the country (Davidson 22-4).

Apparently books are OK with some of these programs just being an ATM all season long. They do nothing to correct the trends.

**blackeyeshamus** · 03-09-15, 08:05 PM

Hold fast.
Take a day and come back Wednesday with your focus and consolidated bankroll. Cash the fxck outta conf tourney plays and get even, my friend.
No worries.

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 08:05 PM

Portland +9.5 (10.7U to win 10)

Last NCAA bet until the tourney unless this hits.

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by blackeyeshamus

Hold fast.
Take a day and come back Wednesday with your focus and consolidated bankroll. Cash the fxck outta conf tourney plays and get even, my friend.
No worries.

Literally every single lame obvious play has been cashing for two weeks straight now in college hoops. That means nothing but burial for someone like me.

**RavensFan2k3** · 03-09-15, 08:08 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Literally every single lame obvious play has been cashing for two weeks straight now in college hoops. That means nothing but burial for someone like me.

But why not adjust?

**bhoor** · 03-09-15, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I don't know if this actually speaks to something other than a lot of bad luck, but looking back through my records, I am now 2-21 in my last 23 plays when taking a spread or a ML on a favorite of -2.5 or less.

You've become victim of your own success, the line movement.

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by bhoor

You've become victim of your own success, the line movement.

I don't bet line movement anymore. Haven't for a long time.

Maybe I should go back to it, actually.

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

But why not adjust?

Adjust to what? Betting the obvious/better team ATS every time? Taking teams that cover night in and night out all season long? Apparently if I'm going to stay in the game at all, I'm going to have to dumb myself down and do it.

**crbravens23** · 03-09-15, 09:03 PM

Do not bet line movement! It seems to be useless in college this yr. trust me. Rather have line go against me this season.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 03-09-15, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Portland +9.5 (10.7U to win 10)

Last NCAA bet until the tourney unless this hits.

Wouldn't a play of 10 units indicate you have this line around 5?

**Lincoln Scofield** · 03-09-15, 10:56 PM

And just like that the BYU game is over...shit

**Knamelis** · 03-09-15, 10:58 PM

These honkies haven't missed - every shot from behind the arc and Portland still just a possession off the pace...

**No coincidences** · 03-09-15, 11:26 PM

Originally posted by Knamelis

These honkies haven't missed - every shot from behind the arc and Portland still just a possession off the pace...

Fitting way to shut down my account.

In an all-out tailspin.

**Knamelis** · 03-09-15, 11:33 PM

It's been a brutal stretch these last few weeks. Bad time to be a contrarian player - I have a buddy who believes that books actually are O.K. with the "public" hitting at such a high rate because players like us, who aren't few and far between like we were 10-15 years ago, even out the action - too much information and too many sources have evened the playing field -used to think he was crazy but he could be onto something

**V4Value** · 03-10-15, 02:28 AM

Makes you think twice...WHAT is a public in a game say SWAC, Sun Belt,etc. I'm not too informed but what is the 'public' population considered..With my current br, I'm sure an average bet is 5-10x minimum what a public bet would be, in my case anyways.

**crbravens23** · 03-10-15, 09:50 AM

could be a combination of a few things: 1. books do not mind giving some money back, knowing that these same players will be wagering on tourney games and the lines will be much tighter and more accurate. 2. college bball and football seem to be more difficult for books to line correctly with the amount of teams and time it requires. 3. books will continue to get better and better and eventually these " public " players will dump money back plus juice next season.

it serves me better to be more contrarian in professional sports than college is the lesson I take away after this sh!tty college season.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 03-10-15, 09:58 AM

Originally posted by crbravens23

it serves me better to be more contrarian in professional sports than college is the lesson I take away after this sh!tty college season.

Couldn't agree more.

**survive** · 03-10-15, 10:26 AM

Agree that you're better off playing contrarian in any sport besides NCAAB. Seems like books put more effort into those lines rather than copying ken pom

**Rose'** · 03-12-15, 10:35 AM

Coin I kno you got some leans today it's too much fun this time of the year to sit out... Get back to the drawing board and make a little run

**blackeyeshamus** · 03-12-15, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by Rose'

Coin I kno you got some leans today it's too much fun this time of the year to sit out... Get back to the drawing board and make a little run

This.

**Knamelis** · 03-12-15, 10:49 AM

Agreed - too good a capper to be on sidelines.

**Lincoln Scofield** · 03-12-15, 10:56 AM

Coin-er. Coin-er. Coin-er.

**No coincidences** · 03-12-15, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by crbravens23

it serves me better to be more contrarian in professional sports than college is the lesson I take away after this sh!tty college season.

Agree.

**No coincidences** · 03-12-15, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Rose'

Coin I kno you got some leans today it's too much fun this time of the year to sit out... Get back to the drawing board and make a little run

Just keep taking the "better" teams and favorites. Brock Landers it.

**No coincidences** · 03-12-15, 11:41 AM

Florida International 1H. Chase at half if necessary.

**No coincidences** · 03-12-15, 11:44 AM

Villanova covers every single game. Just take them.

**Broncos** · 03-12-15, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Villanova covers every single game. Just take them.

Looking good so far ... I only had them 1st H -8.0. Also got lucky with the under 1st H in the UVA game. Good luck on all your bets today. You ARE a good handicapper!

**jihadvillager** · 03-12-15, 01:59 PM

Chase successdul

**No coincidences** · 03-12-15, 05:55 PM

Northwestern live at +18 or better if you can get it.

I think Iowa State beats Texas, but the line says otherwise.

**jihadvillager** · 03-12-15, 07:56 PM

nice call on cyclones coin- they can come back from any deficit

**thetrinity** · 03-12-15, 07:57 PM

that was rick barnes at his best today

**KRIT** · 03-12-15, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

that was rick barnes at his best today

Was there anything more predictable than a Texas meltdown and a cyclones comeback?

**thetrinity** · 03-12-15, 08:06 PM

actually everyone should have won or at least pushed that bet that texas game

**KRIT** · 03-12-15, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by thetrinity

actually everyone should have won or at least pushed that bet that texas game

Line was 1.5 for a long time today. My friend lost on Tex 1.5. I'd imagine a lot of people had Tex ML too.