EP 36's: Detroit or Bust Thread

EaglesPhan36 · 03-17-09, 04:22 PM

Play #2 (CIT): Rider/Liberty 1st Half OVER 67 [7pm EDT Tip]
I'm expecting an up tempo style for this one as both teams enjoy that pace and aren't shy about throwing up the 3-ball. Both defenses are decent, but do yield points as they have given up and average of 157 ppg combined in their last 5. Both have weapons on offense with Rider sporting low post option Ryan Thompson and four others who average double figures. Liberty gets their biggest output from Seth Curry with over 20 ppg and has a low post option of their own in Anthony Smith (17.1 ppg). Ohman can also light it up from outside for the Flames. Expect Curry in particular to try to put a less than 30% shooting night behind him from the SoCo tourney on his home floor.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-17-09, 10:02 PM

Play #3: Washington State/St.Mary's OVER 118.5
Late add on my part and probably idiotic after the Wyoming loss, but I just think this one might eek past the posted total. Only if Mills remembers how to shoot though. He's been awful since returning. They need him to at least hit 40%!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-18-09, 11:37 AM

Play #4: (CIT) Austin Peay +9 [8pm EDT Tip]
Going with the Governors based on their offensive prowess. They seem much less prone to bad shooting nights than Bradley. The Braves are hitting just 41% from the floor in their last 5, but have still managed to win 3 of those games. Bradley is 7-5 ATS at home while Austin Peay is 10-5-1 ATS on the road. For Peay, it's all about Drake Reed who averages 21.8 ppg. As a team, Peay ranks inside the Top 50 in both PPG & FG%. Their main deficiency is on D where they allow 74 ppg, one of the worst in D-1. However, they have amped it up over their last 5 allowing just 60.6 ppg on 42% shooting. With Bradley not possessing a huge 3 point arsenal, Peay should be okay there where they have had trouble. Overall, if Peay comes to shoot and stays in the game early - they should remain competitive to the end.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-22-09, 03:44 PM

Play #5: (NCAA) USC +150
A number two seed usually gets ousted in the 2nd round and here we are late without one losing yet. This is a great spot I belive as USC is as hot as any team in the country and finally playing to their potential. Michigan State is an enigma as they've been ranked highly all season, but remain an inconsistent ball club offensively. That should be the difference today with two tough defensive teams. The Trojans have played much more evenly on offense since making their run in the PAC-10 tourney. If Taj Gibson stays out of foul trouble and has another big game along with solid guard play, I like USC to pull off the upset. Taking 3.5 or 4 points also is a solid play in my book.

Play #6: (NCAA) Marquette/Missouri 1st Half OVER 70.5
The shot clock shouldn't be much of a factor in this one as both teams love to push the tempo. Dominic James' return will be a bonus for Marquette although I won't expect him to be a huge presence, other than emotionally for his team. Marquette's D can be a little leaky against teams that run & challenge them, so I expect Mizzou can put up some points here. And the more shot Mizzou makes, the more they can press and get this game flowing up-tempo. Get your squeaky shoes out because this will be tight, but I think gets there as long as both teams are awake from the opening tip.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 03:22 PM

Play #7: Stanford/Wichita State 1st Half OVER 62.5
The Cardinal remain as one of the more porous defenses in the country. They allow close to 48% from the floor which should allow Wichita State for another solid start at home. The Shockers shoot close to 47% from the field at home & scorched Buffalo for 40+ points in the 1st half in their last game. Even against a stingy Wichita State D, Stanford has enough of an arsenal to pad the scoreboard. They prefer an up tempo style which will be tough against the Shockers, but considering they average close to 79 ppg over their last 5 - The Cardinal can get points here. Only once in their last 5 home dates has the half time score failed to cover tonight's posted total. If Stanford can hit shots early & match Wichita State's production, this can get over.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 05:58 PM

Play #8: Belmont/Old Dominion 1st Half OVER 64.5
Belmont is a Top 50 tempo team as they feel most comfortable pushing the ball and shooting 3s. ODU prefers a slow defensive minded half court game, but has shown a willingness to work with up tempo teams more-so at home. Belmont took Evansville, another slow minded team, out of their element last week. They'll have their work cut out for them to do it against ODU, but in a tourney without the prestige of the NCAA - we could see ODU work more with Belmont early.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 09:00 PM

Play #9: Northeastern/UTEP 1st Half OVER 61.5
Another case of fast vs. slow. At home, UTEP should be able to enforce their faster pace a little more. So long as they can make some early shots and Northeastern does as well, I like this to ease past the number.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 09:58 PM

Play #10: Vermont/Oregon State 2nd Half UNDER 69.5
Both teams relied on the 3 a lot in the 1st half with shots falling at a 62% clip for the Catamounts & 58% for the Beavers. Expecting adjustments at the half with the shooting cooling some. If both teams keep shooting jumpers, free throws will remain out of play (Only 6 attemps in the first half combined). If both teams can keep shooting this well, I'll gladly take a beat here. I think one side might remain hot, but not both. Number fell from 71 to 69.5 before I could even get my wager in - so money is going to the under as well.

Rixsaw · 03-23-09, 10:00 PM

crab...I just took the over.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 10:07 PM

You shouldn't worry - my last two plays - lost by a half point, won by a half point. Probably due to get smoked in this one.

Rixsaw · 03-23-09, 10:17 PM

well on pace for the under.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 10:25 PM

Play #11: Davidson/St.Mary's UNDER 144.5
Caught up in the Mills-Curry hype for this one is that both teams have fairly stout defenses. Davidson is allowing just 36% shooting in their last 5 and under 40% on the season. St.Mary's allows around 41% from the floor for the season. Davidson shoots about 4% points lower on the road and had some nasty yips at the FT line last time out against S.Carolina (16/30). While St.Mary's OVERS have hit 8 of 11 posted totals this season, in 6 of those last 7 - the total did not surpass tonight's 144. With totals in the 140-149.5 range, St.Mary's has only gone over in 2 of 6, while Davidson is about 50-50 going over in 5 of 11. Davidson night games find the under a lot as well - 14 of 21 & 6 of 17 on the road. Curry and Mills could both kill this single handedly, but defense could win out in an upset.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by Rixsaw

well on pace for the under.

Loads of time left and fouls are playing a role here. Oregon State will be in the bonus soon. Beavers do still have some to give though. Teams hitting more deuces than threes now as the shooting percentages are still both over 50. This will be tight to the end and again, I am due to get boned again.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 10:43 PM

Told ya the bone was coming. Over time.

Rixsaw · 03-23-09, 10:47 PM

Well I figure that if it is a 1-2 possession different, there won't be much foul going on. I watch more NBA than NCAA.

Rixsaw · 03-23-09, 10:58 PM

Congrat on your win brother. 7 point in 5 minutes. I gonna go hang myself now.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-23-09, 10:59 PM

Wow. Only 7 points scored in OT. Still managed to get home at 67. That helps since Davidson & St.Mary's don't look like they will be playing D for the 1st half at least. Might lose the under there early.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-24-09, 10:13 AM

Play #12: Penn State/Florida 1st Half OVER 63.5
Since getting a post season bid, the Gators have been on fire offensively. Florida has shot over 50% in both their NIT games and more importantly for these purposes, have put up 49 & 48 first half points in those contests. Florida is also shooting a solid 48% from the floor at home while State is allowing close to 46% shooting in their last 5 and on the road for the season. I don't expect Florida to put up the monster numbers in the upper 40s again, but so long as they come out ready again - they should easily push into the upper 30s leaving the Nittany Lions to do the rest.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-09, 09:48 AM

Play #13: Kentucky/Notre Dame UNDER 144.5
Expecting this number to drop during the day and be closer to 143. Notre Dame has cashed the under in 10 of their last 11 and hasn't hit over this sort of number since mid-February. Kentucky has cashed five straight unders. The Irish Are still having trouble shooting the rock (45/113) during the NIT and have hit just 40.6% of their shots in their last 5. Kentucky has been more solid offensively in the NIT, but has been worse on the road for the season - about 4% points lower. Both teams have held opponents at 40% or less for the road/home splits here, so I like defense to hold the fort again here and think we'll see a score in the 130s.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-09, 08:54 PM

Play #14: Oregon State +4
OSU & Stanford meet for the 4th time. The Beavers won at Stanford and at home before falling in LA to the Cardinal during the PAC-10 tournament. Even in that game, OSU led by 7 at the half before Stanfors outscored them by 15 in the 2nd half. With a trip to the CBI finals series on the line and playing at home, the points seem the best way to go in what should be a tight game. Defense wins this game. OSU played it better in the two wins. Stanford in their one win. Experienced players for OSU also give an edge.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-25-09, 11:50 PM

Play #15: Villanova +115
I will probably wait until tomorrow evening to see if the public pushes more cash on Duke and maybe can grab a little better price on the money line here. In any case, this should be a fantastic match-up. One of the main reasons I like Villanova here is their ability to get to the rack on the dribble. Reynolds, Redding & Stokes can all do it inside & outside for the Cats. I think for them to have success, they will spread Duke out and dribble-drive and dish. Dante Cunningham is the X-factor as he should have a solid day inside regardless of who guards him. Nova's perimeter D will be tested by Scheyer, Henderson and Singler - but the Cats have proven to be not just a quick defensive team, but a physical one (UCLA). If you look at Duke's losses this season - they have come to UNC, Clemson, Wake, BC & Michigan. Most of those are quick teams that can wear you down with pace. I think that is Villanova's best shot here - spread Duke out, but they have also shown an adaptibility to slugging it out if need be.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-09, 10:19 AM

Play #16: Purdue/UConn OVER 133
Looking back to Purdue's win over Washington in the 2nd round, I think you can see that while the Boilers want to keep a slower tempo - points can still be had and they can have success taking more shots. Purdue got major contributions from Johnson, Moore & Grant last game to put up 76 points despite shooting 39%. This should bode well for tonight as UConn is playing tough defense. The Huskies have been steamrolling opponents, averaging over 97 ppg in the 1st two rounds. They'll be tested by a tougher defense, but look primed for 70-80 points tonight. Despite that solid D for the Huskies, they have still given up 75 ppg in their last 5 & in neutral site games this year. Purdue is averaging around 70 ppg in both those splits. Looking at Purdue's games against teams that wanted an up tempo affair on the road or at neutral sites, the totals hit over this one against BC, OU & Michigan most recently in late February. Although I do think Purdue has a legit shot here, I think it will be more at UConn's tempo & prefer the over.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-09, 04:43 PM

Locking in Villanova ML at +125 for Play #15.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-09, 05:09 PM

Play #17: James Madison/Old Dominion 1st Half OVER 60
JMU looks to push the tempo a bit more than ODU and in their two regular season meetings, the number was over this for the 1st half in both. JMU's two post-season games have also snipped past this number including 61 points against slow-down special Mt.St.Mary's. Against Belmont, ODU was content enough to run sometimes and the 1st half total wound up at 64. Both teams will need to shoot well early to help this one get by, but JMU was real comfortable at ODU this season - 28/42 from the floor. Don't expect a repeat, but it should be enough to get us this squeaked by.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-09, 08:19 PM

Play #18: Memphis/Missouri OVER 140.5
Just think the pressing style of Missouri and Memphis' willingness to play at that tempo (i.e. Maryland game) will lead this to be an up tempo affair. Mizzou will need to start it off strong as they did against Marquette or this could get ugly and Memphis will turn it into a half court grind I believe. I think Mizzou's athleticism though will lead to some easy buckets off turnovers from their press & Memphis should get open shots as well. Both Memphis tourney games have blown into the 150s while Mizzou & Marquette got into the 160 and the Cornell game was at 137.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-09, 08:21 PM

UConn & Purdue ..... **** me. One point. Wait to shoot those FTs a-holes.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-26-09, 11:21 PM

It's amazing how many of these picks have come down to a point or two either way.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-09, 11:00 AM

Play #19: Kansas +1
A lot of people are going to look back at the meeting in January and figure another win for the Spartans here. For me, this Jayhawks squad has grown leaps & bounds from that 75-62 loss. Recall as well in that game that they made some good adjustments at the half and made a game of it after being down by as many as 20 I believe. Keys for Kansas tonight: Win the battle on the glass. They were outrebounded in that loss heavily, but this version of KU has a bit more front court depth now with the Morris twins more experienced, plus Little logging solid minutes now. Aldrich is again a force in the tourney and all will need to be tough today. Michigan State has nothing sexy, they just win. Their D is the main focal point as they've held their 2 tourney opponents under 41%. The one thing State does not possess to me is that go-to-guy in the clutch. So much talk about Raymar Morgan, but he's only been in double figures in 3 of their last 10. Kalin Lucas would be the closest thing. KU meanwhile has the experienced Sherron Collins who has stepped up time & again to hit big shots. I think KU has the defense on the perimeter with Collins, Thomas, Morningstar, etc. to keep Kalin Lucas (biggest threat) in-check. If the KU bigs stay out of foul trouble & State isn't able to parade to the FT line, I like KU to advance.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-09, 03:08 PM

Play #20: Arizona PG Nic Wise OVER 15.5 points (-145)
Liking this play so long as Wise can handle the pressure of Louisville's defense. He has amped his game up in the 1st two rounds with 50 points combined, second only to Sherron Collins from Kansas in this region. What I like most about Wise is that he doesn't rely on getting points only from his jumper. He works to the rack and draws fouls. Wise got to the line about 5 times per contest on average during the regular season. Including their PAC-10 tourney game and the NCAAs, he's 21-21 from the line in his last three and has gotten to the strip 17 times in the Big Dance. He hits over 45% from the floor and 42% from distance. He's gotten over this total in 8 of his last 10. The 2 misses in the last 10 were poor shooting nights/foul difficulties against Cal & Washington (6 of 24 FG shooting combined). He'll play 36 minutes or more unless fouls become an issue, so he should have ample opportunity. It's up to him to perform.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-09, 07:27 PM

Play #21: Syracuse/Oklahoma 2nd Half OVER 78.5
Pace and scoring was dramatically different over the last 10 minutes. 42 points compared to 23 in the 1st ten. Lots of turnovers, if that is shored up = more possessions & points. Syracuse was ice cold from 3. They can heat up quick. Expecting Griffin to get lots of FTs.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-09, 08:09 PM

Nic Wise misses by two points. Uncanny how close the losses are these past 2 weeks. Yeeee!

EaglesPhan36 · 03-27-09, 11:29 PM

Pick #22: Villanova +115
Gonna lock this one in early because I think there will be more money on Villanova because of their manhandling of Duke and Pitt's continued escape act. Villanova remains very much a no respect team in my book as they really have one of the toughest defenses in the country that no one talks about. Their perimeter players - Reynolds, Stokes, Redding, Fisher - can all guard well and just as importantly, break players down on the offensive end. When they met in the regular season, the Cats beat the Panthers by 10. They held Pitt under 41% shooting and kept Fields & Young in check and had Blair in foul trouble as a non-factor. Nova got to the foul line a ton in that game and that will be a key tomorrow as they remain a much better FT shooting team at close to 75% compared to Pitt's 66%. Villanova didn'twin the battle on the boards, but kept it close against Pitt. They need to do the same tomorrow. If Cunningham can be that X-factor again, either neutralizing Blair or taking him away from the bucket from time-2-time to score ... then all the much better.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-28-09, 03:14 PM

Pick #23: Missouri/UConn 1st Half OVER 70.5 (-120)
See no reason to believe the tempo will not remain high octane here in this one. In fact, I think UConn will relish a chance to run again, something they did not get to do as much against Purdue. Mizzou is a Top 15 tempo team while UConn ranks in the middle of the pack. However, against teams that like to push it - Syracuse, Marquette, Seton Hall, etc. - UConn didn't mind running with them. The key obviuosly is making shots. With both teams possessing solid transition games, opportunities should be there. UConn scored 48 & 51 in their 1st two NCAA games 1st halves. Mizzou was giving up 35.5 to Memphis & Marquette combined in the 1st halves of their last two while averaging 47.5. I don't expect Mizzou to get that mark, but both teams are fully capable of hitting in the upper 30s each. It would help greatly if both teams could make their damn FTs too.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-29-09, 03:41 AM

I love Scottie Reynolds.