EP 36's: Detroit or Bust Thread

EaglesPhan36 · 03-29-09, 11:55 AM

Play #24: Louisville/Michigan State OVER 137.5
Contrasting styles here, but as with most - I believe the Cardinals will dictate the pace a bit more with their press. Louisville has scored at least 74 points in all three NCAA games thus far while State perhaps surprisingly has seemed fairly consistent at 77, 74 & 67. Looking back over the course of the season, the Spartans have not had trouble running with up tempo clubs. Totals against Maryland, N.Carolina & Oklahoma St. all eclipsed today's posted number. The key for this one to me is State getting to the foul line and making early shots to keep their confidence up. Louisville should be able to get some transition buckets off turnovers & vice-versa as both teams can wreak havoc defensively with their pressure. Also see the possibility of a close game in the last 5 minutes where fouls could still play a role. State has shot over 74% from the line in their last 5.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-29-09, 03:13 PM

Play #25: Willie Warren Points/Assists OVER 16.5 (-115)
Just a hunch that UNC pays extra attention to Crocker, allowing Warren more opportunities. Warren only had 6 points in the last game vs. Syracuse, but 16 in each of the other two NCAA games. Handful of assists per game as well.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-29-09, 06:09 PM

Shout at the Devil! 66.6% win percentage as of this last wager for my post-season. Beast me.

Rixsaw · 03-29-09, 08:40 PM

not bad at all.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-09, 04:36 PM

Play #26: NCAAW - Louisville/Maryland UNDER 146.5
Yes, beaver ball baby. This is not a drill. This is not a joke. Well, okay it is a joke to watch, but you can still win money on it. Louisville is a stingy defensive-minded team. They haven't allowed more than 52 points in any of their tourney games. Maryland will test that as the Lady Terps possess a dominant player who lit up Utah for 42 points. Still in doing so, that game only got to 152. Louisville is coached by a former Maryland assistant, so I think she's got the secret info to slow Maryland some. Maryland's D is not great, but Louisville's offense hasn't been exactly potent in the post-season. Laugh along with me tonight when you see the score.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-09, 08:01 PM

Beaver ball can't stop the rock.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-30-09, 08:45 PM

Play #27: UTEP/Oregon State OVER 131
Going with the numbers on this one. UTEP is a top 25 tempo team and they only know one way to play. They will play fast, but they must make shots for their tempo to make a difference. With totals between 130 & 139.5, UTEP games have hit the over 7 of 8 times. Over is also 12 of 17 on the road for the Miners. OSU is the polar opposite as they will try to slow things to a crawl. Fortunately, the Beavers have hit close to 50% from the floor in their last two tourney games. They'll need to do the same if they play slow down as usual.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-31-09, 02:44 PM

Play #28: Penn State +4.5
Could the Big Ten be ready to prove itself one more time against the Big East? Yeah, not the grand stage of Louisville-Michigan State ... but there are similarities. Notre Dame seems to be thought of by most to be a shoe-in here, but why? The Irish remain cold from the field, shooting under 40% in their last 5 and got their best shooting of just under 45% in beating Kentucky. Meanwhile, Penn State has been steady in three NIT games, shooting over 46% in their last 5. Both have played solid D. The big match-up here is Harangody vs. Cornelle. If Cornelle can stay out of foul trouble and be productive, the Nittany Lions have a good shot here. Look for Taylor Battle to have a big one for ND. He's a former Irish recruit who should relish a shot at knocking off the school that passed on him. The Irish have played at MSG this season three times and clearly have not enjoyed their stay, losing to St.John's & W.Virginia on this floor and looking very average against Rutgers. Watch the battle on the boards as a huge mark. If PSU stays close to even, that's very good for them.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-31-09, 05:28 PM

Play #29: UConn/Arizona State OVER 132
Welcome back to Beaver Ball baby. Yes, it is a sick disgusting habit wagering on this, but money is money, right? You've got the top scoring team in UConn that has incredibly only NOT gotten above 70 points TWICE in 36 games. In the NCAAs, it's 104, 87 & 77 pt. totals. ASU is coming off a ridiculously hot 62% shooting effort in putting up 84 on A&M in the last round. A&M was a Top 30 PPG against team during the season. That confidence may help a little against the 2nd stingiest D in the land in UConn. ASU's D is pretty solid, but this UConn team is truly potent. ASU also did allow 69 pts to A&M. Find it hard to think UConn doesn't get it's customary mid 70s or more. Question being can ASU hit around 60? Laugh with me later when you look at the score, ya know - one way or the other someone will be laughing.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-31-09, 08:30 PM

Beaver Ball is my bitch.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-01-09, 03:17 PM

Think I am sitting tonight's game out. Don't really like the line for the side. Slight lean to the under perhaps at 134.5 right now. Just not really feeling anything here. Might see what the 2nd half line is and play that.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-01-09, 10:03 PM

Play #30 : Oregon State/UTEP 2nd Half OVER 72 (Even)

EaglesPhan36 · 04-02-09, 10:43 AM

Play #31: Baylor -3.5
NIT Championship tonight pits Baylor against Penn State. For me, the choice comes down to one thing. Baylor's offense is more dynamic than Penn State's. Both defenses have been very solid during the NIT. But, the Bears are shooting over 50% from the floor for the tourney and impressively, 37 of 86 from distance - getting better each game (50% vs. SD State). Penn State is no slouch with Talor Battle & Jamelle Cornley a great inside-outside duo, but Baylor has the inside game of Rogers and the outside game of Dunn, Jerrells & Carter. If Baylor gets their threes dropping again early along with the driving ability of Jerrells, they've got a chance to run away and hide from Penn State in this one. I don't expect that they will have an easy time though, but their win over San Diego State, a top 15 PPG against defense, shows how lethal this team is offensively. Bears have also kept their last three opponents down defensively, 23/55 shooting (SDST), 25/64 (Auburn) & 23/71 (Va.Tech). This is the Baylor team that was ranked in the Top 25 to start the season and it's one that should hoist a trophy tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-03-09, 05:07 PM

Play #32: Oregon State/UTEP OVER 133
Game 2 of the CBI Champioship Series would have surpassed the total of 134 if UTEP had sunk some free throws. They missed 15, including 9 of those from 2 of their best FT shoots Jackson & Culpepper. The good news is that both teams have gotten to the FT line this series. 35 combined in the first and 48 in the second. Bad news is both teams have struggled from the line at times. Still, UTEP has been able to put up enough shots to enforce a more up-tempo feel, especially so in the 2nd half of the games where they've scored 40 points in each. First halves were carbon copies of each other with a 35-29 OSU lead in one & 35-30 in the other. Feeling is if UTEP could actually come out and hit some shots early and have a lead, the tempo could get even better in favor of the over in the 2nd half with OSU chucking up even more 3s. This one is likely to be tight up against the number, but I expect UTEP to roll away in the 2nd half here at home to take the trophy. So I don't think they let up on the tempo.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-04-09, 03:57 PM

Play #33: Stanley Robinson Pts & Reb OVER 18.5 (-115)
Robinson may be the beneficiary today of a lot of attention to AJ Price & Hasheem Thabeet. Robinson has really stepped his game up in the tourney after averaging just 6.4 ppg & 5.5 rpg in the regular season. In the tourney, he has hit for 24, 10, 13 & 12 while racking up 29 rebounds in four games. He's done a great job of avoiding fouls trouble as well, so he should get his 35 minutes or so today. The only time he didn't combine for more than this # was the 2nd round blowout against A&M where he just missed with 12 points & 7 boards. Since Jerome Dyson's injury in February, Robinson has been a more integral and consistent part of the UConn offense. He has doubled his scoring output from early in the season and is averaging a shade over 11 ppg since the injury. He has also not had less than 5 rebounds in a game since the Dyson injury. For me, Robinson will need to get 12-14 points and I believe his rebounding in a game that will probably feature plenty of misses, will do the rest to get this combo over.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-04-09, 07:35 PM

Play #34: Reggie Redding Total Points OVER 7.5 (-105)
This is a hunch play on my part. Redding isn't a scoring threat, averaging just 7 ppg during the regular season. He has had two double figure games in the tournament against Duke & UCLA, but mustered just 4 against American in Round 1 & 5 last round vs. Pitt. His main role for the night is locking down Ellington for UNC. However, these two are good friends and I have a feeling Redding might have some of the competitive juices flowing against his buddy. He's also likely not on UNC's radar as far as defensive keys as they'll look to slow Reynolds penetration and keep Cunningham from doing damage inside. Like Redding's chances to get some transition opportunities as well off Tar Heel turnovers, possibly of his own doing as he's accounted fro 7 steals in the tournament so far. He's also gone 11 straight games with at least 31 minutes of PT, getting no less than 32 in the tournament. He has to make the most of his shots as he likely won't get more than 8 or 9 at the most.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-04-09, 10:30 PM

Gawd. Wish the regular season was as fruitful as the post-season has been. In any case, will take what I can when I can. Probably have a Beaver Ball play tomorrow night and then gonna go fairly big on whatever I like best for Monday since I'm up for the post-season.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-05-09, 04:53 PM

Play #35: UConn/Stanford OVER 140.5
The two heavyweights of Beaver Ball go at it tonight. Stanford is the team that KO'ed last year's UConn squad from the tournament, so revenge should play a role here. This is a different Stanford team, but they can still score. They've scored at least 74 in every tourney game & have 10 straight with 70 or more. UConn is the top scoring team in the nation and they've got 77 or more in all their tournament games. Defensively, they are solid, but they have given up just a shade over 60 ppg in the tournament. In all but two games this season, UConn has reached 70 or more points. An incredible number. Look for the Huskies to get their customary 70+ here as I would expect them to push toward 80 or more as Coach Auriemma won't mind running up the score if possible. Stanford can keep this game interesting for at least a half & they shouldn't be afraid of an up tempo game.

The_Kid · 04-05-09, 08:17 PM

EaglesPhan, I love reading the write-ups. I'm going to tail you on this women's play.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-05-09, 10:46 PM

Chicken dinner.

Should have a Championship Play together by mid-afternoon tomorrow. Gonna be a prop play as I again don't get a great read on the game itself. One more big score boys, hope we get it! Well maybe two if Beaver Ball presents another opp!

EaglesPhan36 · 04-06-09, 11:46 AM

Play #36: Ty Lawson Total Points OVER 17.5 (-120)
Lawson has easily been UNC's best player in the tournament in my estimation. He's scored at least 19 points in all four games he's played in. He's shown that he's a complete player now, hitting 3s, driving, doing it all - which makes him all the more dangerous. The Tar Heels have amped up his minutes in the last 2 games as well with Lawson playing 35 & 36 minutes. Lawson took an amazing 17 FT attemps against Villanova, although he only made 10. Still, that's good news if he is getting to the rack for the contact and the opportunities from the line. Lawson has hit for more than 18 in 7 of his last 10 and had 17 in the blowout win against State back in December. He might have had more that night, but played only 28 minutes. State is likely to have Travis Walton try and keep pace with him and Kalin Lucas as well. With how well Lawson has played to this point and with the Championship on the line, I expect another big game.

*5 unit play*

EaglesPhan36 · 04-06-09, 10:02 PM

Figures I take the one game in the tourney that Lawson can't buy a bucket. Been shooting close to 50% all tourney and tonight, 1 for 7 from the floor. Oh well, took my shot at a big payoff here and looks like my profits will take a little hit.

But I think I got one more play for Beaver Ball tomorrow! Gotta get that last one in.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-06-09, 10:39 PM

Never you mind. I own this post-season. That was a sweet free throw shooting exhibition Mr.Ty Lawson. Props to State for being stupid and continuing to foul.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-06-09, 10:42 PM

Post-Season Total: 25-10-1 (+21.93 units)

I ain't skeered about Beaver Ball tomorrow. One more for the thumb.

mcbaseball10 · 04-06-09, 11:19 PM

Big props to you as well as you cleaned up with some big unit plays.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-06-09, 11:49 PM

Play #37: Louisville/UConn OVER 137
Beaver Ball finale & the close to the post-season for NCAA hoops junkies. UConn crushed Louisville twice this season. 93-65 & 75-36. I'm willing to toss out Louisville's 36 point clunker in the Big East tournament as they were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and had a double OT game against Rutgers the first night that really wore them down. UConn was also playing their 3rd game in 3 days, but had little trouble scoring 75 where they really let up in the 2nd half, scoring just 25 after a huge 1st half. I've documented this one in each pick. This Huskies team is ridiculous on offense, again just twice this season have they been held under 70 points. In the tournament, they have put up 104, 87, 77, 83 & 83. They've also given up a little bit more than usual in their last two with ASU & Stanford going for 64 each. Louisville meanwhile has not been a scoring machine offensively in the tournament, averaging just over 63 ppg. Their defensive game plans against their opponents this tourney have been impressive, but UConn isn't going to be surprised by their press like the other teams may have been. The Huskies are that team of destiny here that has crushed their opponents like UNC on the men's side. UConn should be good for another high 70s or 80s total on their own as they surely will put the hammer down here in their quest for perfection. Louisville doesn't shoot great, but if they can get around that tourney average in the low 60s ... I think the over has a good shot. expect this number to climb perhaps as the Final Four line did with Stanford-UConn.

*3 unit play*

Don't be scared of the beaver ball. It ain't skeered of you.

EaglesPhan36 · 04-07-09, 08:59 PM

Beaver Ball is gonna get me on the last one. No miracles tonight unless the Louisville men's team sneaks into the game with wigs on. All in all, a great post-season. Hope you guys made out too! See ya in the baseball forum.