~2009 NCAA Dog Tracker~

[Dexter]

so i've been saying for a while now that i wanted to just play all the dogs come ncaa tourney time. i never was able to get concrete stats from past seasons (prob didnt look hard enough) but a friend of mine from work agreed to take my action. we are doing $100 per game (all ncaa games) and will be using the closing lines from the Greek. I will use this thread to track the results each day.

good luck all with your plays!

-dexter

[Dexter]

just finished my bracket:

final four~

louisville, memphis, pitt, nc

finals~

louisville over nc

[frostno98]

just finished my bracket:

final four~

louisville, memphis, pitt, okl

finals~

louisville over okl

I don't really like Memphis, they still have free throw issues. If they go against a team that can shoot 3's well, they're going to be dead. All you need do is foul them, and counter with 3's after 3's.

[Dexter]

very true frost, and that was in the back of my mind when i picked them. i couldnt pick 3 big east teams though, and felt uconn had the tougher draw out on the west coast

[ram1502]

just finished my bracket:

final four~

louisville, memphis, pitt, okl

finals~

louisville over okl

Yo, Dex. You have Oklahoma beating Clemson, Syracuse, and North Carolina?

[Crayzee]

your betting every dog in the tourney?

your gonna get killed

[jagmaster]

Me and some friends did the whole all dog thing last year just for first 2 rounds and got killed forgot what we finished but it was not good, the first 2 days we won 5 games outr of 32. It's a bad idea guy.

[2daBank]

mem is gonna have there hands full in the sweet 16 against missouri. should be a great game!

[Dexter]

your betting every dog in the tourney?

your gonna get killed

thx for the pm..

[Dexter]

Me and some friends did the whole all dog thing last year just for first 2 rounds and got killed forgot what we finished but it was not good, the first 2 days we won 5 games outr of 32. It's a bad idea guy.

did it do that bad last year? thats cool - only doing $100 per game.

[Dexter]

Yo, Dex. You have Oklahoma beating Clemson, Syracuse, and North Carolina?

yes sir - riding griffin to the final four.

[repski]

yes sir - riding griffin to the final four.

Griffin has gotta a fragile cranium.....I see the Cuse crushing the Sooners..IMHO

Syracuse...final 4 team...they have size Onuaku, Paul Harris, a great point guard Flynn and a sharpshooter Devendorf...

only concern is they may be mentally toasted..

[ram1502]

Midwest and South brackets are squirrely. I could see Louisville, Wake, Michigan St, or Kansas coming out of the Midwest. Either way, I don't see any way Memphis doesn't play UConn in the elite eight in the West. UNC, Syracuse, or Oklahoma will come out of the south. No matter what happens, Pitt WILL make the final four coming out of the East and Duke will not make it to the Elite Eight. I see some pretty enticing dogs in the opening round, namely Chattanooga, Tx A&M, VCU, WK, Siena, OK St, and Utah St. I'll definitely be betting these. Good luck Dex.

[regularguy]

Griffin is awesome, but in my opinion the rest of the team did not respond well when he was injured. I am thinking that his injury -- even if he is back to near 100% -- has been too disruptive, and too hard on the team's confidence, for them to make a Final Four appearance this year.

[cocknocker]

Taking the St. Louis Rams to win the Super Bowl

[Hitch0422]

Dogs i like outright in round 1....Siena...Clev St...Miss St....Md...Wis....S Aus....and Mich

[jackpot269]

GL with the dogs!! ill be checking back to see how you do !!!!!!!!!!

[JGILL50]

DEX your getting jobbed by using closing lines as the is sure to be RLM in a lot of these games

[Dexter]

DEX your getting jobbed by using closing lines as the is sure to be RLM in a lot of these games

well, that was my disclousre of using closing lines.

while there will be movement on dogs, the overall amount of movement from open to close on all games should see rising lines - in at least 55% of the games i would estimate.

[JGILL50]

yeah i agree BOL my man

[Dexter]

yeah i agree BOL my man

yeah, no doubt im gonna get hosed in some spots by not using the opening line. but over the course of the whole tournament, i think it will benefit me by using closing. we'll see, as that is something i will keep an eye on as well.

[Crayzee]

if you have the means you could lay off bets with a book offshore
if your stuck into this thing:
in other words
your stuck with all the dogs on day 1 with your friend
if you could bet 100 each on the favorite with a book youd just break even/ lose vig

SEROUSLY THOUGH-
YOU SHOULD JUST TELL THE GUY YOUR BACKING OUT-
FVK HIM
YOU REALLY SHOULD BAIL ON THE WHOLE THING

[DennisT]

Dexter Nooooooooooo!!!!!!!

My bro and I tried that two years ago Result

[Dexter]

if you have the means you could lay off bets with a book offshore
if your stuck into this thing:
in other words
your stuck with all the dogs on day 1 with your friend
if you could bet 100 each on the favorite with a book youd just break even/ lose vig

SEROUSLY THOUGH-
YOU SHOULD JUST TELL THE GUY YOUR BACKING OUT-
FVK HIM
YOU REALLY SHOULD BAIL ON THE WHOLE THING

im doing it for $100 per game - its not going to break me.

if you're that sour on the idea, are you going to play every favorite?

*def come here and post the actual dogs that you like. i like your whole power ranking angle with a&m. perhaps i'll throw a few more bucks down on the dogs you like!

[cocknocker]

Dexter, you have the correct idea,

the only thing is that you are doing it for the wrong amount of time on the games. The correct call on playing all of the dogs is to take them in the 1st half only throughout the tournament. If they cover the 1st half, then lay off of playing the 2nd half.

If the dog doesn't cover in the first half, and the line for the second half does NOT have a line that would have the favorite covering by more than 2 points over the original spread, then take the dog in the 2nd half.

If the favorite has acheived the overall game spread at the half, and the 1st half went way over the total, then play the under for the 2nd half.

That's what it do. I won't be speaking on this anymore.

[gameday10]

Favorites went 21-11 ATS the first 2 days last year.

[Dexter]

good tips ck - thx.

yeah gameday, i do recall favs doing well last year on days 1 and 2.

[cocknocker]

And we can tap into that statistic gameday10. But I am sure that all of those favorites didn't cash the first halves, but the majority of them DID cover the 2nd halves.

[cocknocker]

What we're looking for are opportunities to get some of those unders for the 2nd halves when the favorite is dusting off the underdog. The underdog will step it up on defense and so will the favorites. There will be clock milking as well if the lead is substantial. Coaches tend to take the air out of the ball when they have a high double digit lead in the 2nd halves in an attempt to preserve their players for the next game.

[Dexter]

i like that under mind-set.

[cocknocker]

As far as the sides for the games are concerned, I will be picking and choosing. As far as the system is concerned, i will be doing ALL of them all the way through the Tournament.

I do have one exception though. I don't usually don't wager on the #1 against the #16 seed game as those 1st halves are usually have no moneyline, which is something I don't go against.

[JohnMorr08]

Dex - Good Luck

Although I feel that 'picking spots' and watching lines is the way to go... As always.

[Dexter]

Thanks JohnMorr - i really dont have the time to sit there and track lines all day/night for these games.

This is an easy way to have some march madness action for fun with no vig.

[suckatmyjob]

Dex and CK thanks for input

not sure when you apply this method with the 1st Half then 2nd half but it seems like it works on any sports.

i only tried it on 1 game yesterday and I know it's the NIT but hey it paid

best of luck just a lot of work

[DennisT]

Dexter.

I.m new at this computer game. While I;ll take what help I can get no one .Who cares D.on;t take the dogs. Madeness. BOL.