Live Betting NCAA Tournament Games

jds07v · 03-25-14, 05:22 PM

This is pretty common. Especially in a sport like basketball where each team can go on a little run many times during a game. Pretty easy to find middles in the spread or get both teams at plus money on the money line.

jtoler · 03-25-14, 05:41 PM

Youre doing nothing wrong, still you gotta be smart betting live lines, there is no edge IMO other than the fact you can buy out of something or hedge as you say.

Yazworm91 · 03-26-14, 12:48 AM

Yea I've gotten tied up in live betting before. Like a true donkey I chased an under.....you don't need to hear the rest lol. I do like it though. I've gotten a lot better about not chasing and trying to pick my spots to middle.

thekoreanmang · 03-26-14, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by burtonrider726

I've noticed on games with huge amount of viewers have wagering during games. I am a little baffled as no one really posts anything about live game lines. In the long run, does anyone stay even or positive doing so?

During the Iowa State/UNC game, I was able to jump in on UNC +200 and towards the end found Iowa State at +280. It was only for 30 dollars, but I guaranteed myself a win. I've also jumped on under lines when they were set extremely high for how many points have been scored during the First half.

Am I doing something that books don't generally allow with hedging? Or am I just lucky to grab lines at the right time? Thanks for all your input and help y'all.

That's an interesting strategy. I've live bet a good amount and I never really thought to do that because I get so caught in looking for winners. I've kept track of all of my bets but I haven't tallied my live betting to date. If I do I'll post on here.

I'll have to try out what you do on the rest of the NCAA/NBA games for the season. Nice post!

burtonrider726 · 03-26-14, 09:59 AM

Thanks for all the input! I have live bet nba And have not been successful at all. However it worked for me in NFL playoffs and NCAA tournament. The TV timeouts and regular timeouts call for live betting and if I feel there is an edge, I will take it.

If you are disciplined and choose your spots, when an underdog is playing well and you think could seal it, for example, Mercer vs Duke, you can take a shot at the ML or point spread. I see other people take a gamble before the game on huge ML and I just can't pull the trigger because I feel like the odds are against me.

PlusUltra · 03-27-14, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by jtoler

Youre doing nothing wrong, still you gotta be smart betting live lines, there is no edge IMO other than the fact you can buy out of something or hedge as you say.

There is significant edge when done correctly. It's possible to bet bad lines live betting just like you can pregame. You can get yourself into trouble and continue to grab more and more points on a dog hoping they can come back and dig yourself a big hole and lose more when they never come back.

For instance, when Mercer played Tennessee last weekend the game line was Tenn -8.5. Within a few minutes of the game Tenn got hot and Mercer went up to +11. During later parts of the game, you could have got Mercer at +13, +14, and +15.5. All those lines were looking good at times, but ultimately all lost as Tenn pulled away and won by 20. That does happen. Like anything with sports betting, you have to exercise discipline.

On the flipside, you can take a game like tonight's Pacers and Heat game. The Pacers were -1.5 and -117 on the ML. Well if you laid the points, you lost tonight. However, if you live bet it on the ML, you won and likely got a much better line. During tonight's game, better ML prices of -112, -104, +124, +186, and +225 all appeared at some point. Grabbing any one of those would have got you the win at a better price.

The best strategy for live betting is practicing to find out what works best for you. One strategy I like is to take whatever you normally bet and divide it by an easily divisible number like 5, 10, or 20. Use that new, smaller number as your unit for live betting. During the game decide to bet smaller portions of your normal bet until you reach your full unit.

Let's say you're a $20 bettor, well in tonight's Pacers game, you could have decided to bet $1-2 at several different spots in the game and come out much better than you would have if you had bet it pregame on the spread. The ML won so pregame it wouldn't have mattered, but if it had lost, then you would have saved yourself some juice.

What I do is bet 25% of my normal wager pregame, then bet out the remaining 75% in parts of the game where I'm getting better value. If I don't like the value, I pass. Sometimes you miss out on a full wager win if you bet less than the allotted funds you had for the game, but other times you lose less when a game doesn't go the way you think and you don't see any value to fire on.

It's not the better option all of the time, but it does at times offer a significant edge over what was available pregame.

Hope this helps and best of luck!

burtonrider726 · 03-28-14, 12:17 AM

Thanks for your input. I've gotten into trouble live betting with large amounts! Will try smaller amounts and see how I do!