NCAAB system thats been working

[BeanTownClown88]

those arent mine

[bostonboss]

this Columbia/yale game is something else

[labones00]

Ivy league teams are just getting into league play, going to see some match-ups that don't make sense on paper until each team plays a good 4 or 5 league games

[bostonboss]

the game would be 10-8 had 22 fouls not been called

[drfunkmaster]

for giggles heres what i got
Yale -5
Harvard -2
Cleveland St -3
Dartmouth -5
Rider -1
Youngstown -5
Brown -10
Murray St -3.5
Manhat -1.5

looks very good.

[Allsportscapper]

Nice work

[wizcodlifa]

when you subtract them how do you no which team is favored or underdog??

[wizcodlifa]

nvm i get it.. so big ones tomorrow ive done are SMU and Mizzou??

[wizcodlifa]

i have noticed by doing these that it is nearly impossible to get a big fav on a play.. watch out for that.

[Fins007]

What does the final number represent? In your example, the number was 5 on Yale which meant Yale was the play.

What is the line? If greater than 2 a play on that team? Less than 2 NO play? There are a lot that are less than 2. Pls advise.

[AOSpades]

What does the final number represent? In your example, the number was 5 on Yale which meant Yale was the play.

What is the line? If greater than 2 a play on that team? Less than 2 NO play? There are a lot that are less than 2. Pls advise.

The number 5 means that by doing his formula, the line should be -5. In the case of Yale, yesterday Yales lines was -2 on the books.

As far as the less than or more than 2 thing. I think he means that if his line that he comes up with is more than 2 points different than the line posted, then it's a bet.

[bravo kilo]

Jesus people. If the line that the system estimates is two (could be any minimum you wish) points different than the line that the book has, then bet whichever team benefits from the difference.

For example:
If the system has Yale -5 and the book has Yale -3, you would take Yale since you are laying two points less than you estimated.

[bravo kilo]

The number 5 means that by doing his formula, the line should be -5. In the case of Yale, yesterday Yales lines was -2 on the books.

As far as the less than or more than 2 thing. I think he means that if his line that he comes up with is more than 2 points different than the line posted, then it's a bet.

^beat me to it

[Fins007]

Ok....Thanks that helps!......The only other factor is that the lines will keep moving.....He still came up with 2.
Since lines are moving shouldn't you look for more than 2 to be safe?.....In Yale's case, it was 3......That's better.
On a few bets, he used moneyline.........what was the thinking there?

[BeanTownClown88]

My system did bad last night 2-3-1 If it can rebound here and keep me in the profit, that would be great so today is a good test.

I like to run the system against the opening line although it doesn't matter because the home and away ppg's/pts allowed totals arent dependent on the line or its movement.

There have been times when after doing the equation, the line comes out in favor of the other team. What DrFunk posted above was not based on my system that started the thread, although those picks dominated and I wish I tailed them!

Again (Home team PPG + Away Team Road Pts Allowed Per Game)/2 will give you the new number for the home team
(Road Team PPG + Home Team Pts Allowed per game)/2 will give you the new number for the away team.

Will keep you guys posted on today, I havent done any capping yet, but since theres over 150 games, Im sure I wont get to all of them.

[Beetlejuice]

I find this system intriguing here. Can someone hold my hand as I do the math? I think I got a good one here... Let's take Baylor at Oklahoma State (-11).



Home Team (Oklahoma) Points For = 83.8

Road Team (Baylor) Points against = 67.7

83.8 + 67.7 = 151.5 151.5/2 = 75.5



Road Team (Baylor) Points For = 75.7

Home Team (Oklahoma Points against= 67.00

75.7 + 67.00 = 142.5 142.5/2 = 71.25



75.5- 71.75 = 3.75



Which means that Oklahoma should technically be -3.5/-4 depending on other factors...



Can someone check my math and make sure I plugged in the right stats? And obviously, it would be a good time to take Baylor +11, right?

[BeanTownClown88]

You are correct on math. But what I meant is use Oklahoma St Pts scored at home + Baylor ppg scored on road. OK St scores 90.4 at home according to that. Link to page:

http://www.scoresandodds.com/statfeed/statfeed.php/page/cbb/expanded/basketball/BAYLOR/OKLAHOMA%20STATE/rotnum/562/date/2014-02-01

Use only the Home and Away Stats not Team Total Stats

[BeanTownClown88]

And if it suggests Baylor covers..I would still be wary because of how bad they've been playing. You make the call though!

[Beetlejuice]

And so am I only using home/road point stats? No overall general point scoring averages?

[BeanTownClown88]

correct

[BeanTownClown88]

stupid thing puts a comment on the front page down here disregard and use only the home/road stats

[BeanTownClown88]

I hope this helps!

[Beetlejuice]

I'm confused, because if im using road and home ppgs/pa's averages, and not general ones, I get something totally different.... Am I doing this correctly now?



PPG @ Home (Oklahoma) = 90.4

PA on the Road(Baylor) = 73.2

90.4 + 73.2 = 163.6 / 2 = 81.8



PPG on Road (Baylor) = 72.2

PA at home (Oklahoma) = 60.5

72.2 + 60.5 = 132.7 / 2 66.35



81.8 -66.35 = 15.45



Which means that Oklahoma should technically be favored now by -15.45/-15.5



The other equation using those general stats would have me takingBaylor, (Oklahome at -4 or so) but not this time. I would be inclined to now lay points on Oklahoma with the regular spread being -11....

[Beetlejuice]

Can you check if I'm using the right stats now? The right numbers, I mean. I only used ONLY road and home averages.

[AOSpades]

Oh wow. I just wrote out like 20 games doing it wrong, I completely didn't disregarded the whole away and home thing. Back to the drawing board

[Beetlejuice]

Oh wow. I just wrote out like 20 games doing it wrong, I completely didn't disregarded the whole away and home thing. Back to the drawing board

I'm kinda glad I brought this to the fore then. Yeah, OP didn't explain these needed to be home/road PAs and PPG averages, I'm the kind of person that needs things spelled out. like USE HOME TEAM's PPG AVERAGE AT HOME, or, USE ROAD TEAM's POINTS ALLOWED ON THE ROAD

[BeanTownClown88]

yea guys so sorry for the confusion. Thanks for bringing this up! And I just looked it over, and you got it..this looks to be a pretty rough day for baylor

[BeanTownClown88]

Check out marshall vs Fla Atlantic. Spread is Marshal -3 but system has them at a little over -10

[Beetlejuice]

Check out marshall vs Fla Atlantic. Spread is Marshal -3 but system has them at a little over -10

Love it, I did crunch it and took Marshall. Also, did you happen to crunch Georgia Tech at Wake Forest. I got that spread with Wake Forest at -11.5 I took Wake.

[Beetlejuice]

I'm also starting to wonder if it might be helpful to lay a little more chalk and buy a couple points, in addition to only including plays with more than 2 scores or so.

[BeanTownClown88]

Hmm wierd i got Wake -8.75 I think GT in rough shape too so I took Wake.
For that calc I had:

Gt
(65.6+63.9)/2 =64.75

WF
(75.2+71.6)/2 =73.4 73.4-64.75=8.65

[BeanTownClown88]

Yea it may be. Also the thing that's been crazy about this is how dominant the picks come out in the second half.

I've had plenty of teams come out flat in first half and I think it's over only to look again later to see they covered by owning the 2H

[AOSpades]

Love it, I did crunch it and took Marshall. Also, did you happen to crunch Georgia Tech at Wake Forest. I got that spread with Wake Forest at -11.5 I took Wake.

I just want to make sure I'm doing things right because although I figured it out with wake being a good bet, I got a different spread than you.

Georgia tech road ppg (65.6) + wake forest home allowed (63.9) = 129.5 / 2 = 64.75

Wake forest home ppg (75.2) + Georgia tech road allowed (71.6) = 146.8 / 2 = 73.4

Meaning the new spread should be Wake forest -8.65 or -9.

[AOSpades]

Yea it may be. Also the thing that's been crazy about this is how dominant the picks come out in the second half.

I've had plenty of teams come out flat in first half and I think it's over only to look again later to see they covered by owning the 2H

I was actually going to mention that to you last night but then manhattan and Austin peay didn't end up covering. But yea, it's odd how strong the picks are in the second half.

[BeanTownClown88]

And the picks were rough last night as is...today has plenty of games so hopefully this will be fun. I also have Georgia @ Auburn Aub-4

System has Auburn -11 and Georgia has been bad. I also took providence -6 even though they came up 4 shy of DePaul in system as DePaul is missing a guy that averages 16 pts 6 rbs and 4 assists per game..and providence is pretty good. Not a system play though