Why is IPFW + 7.5?

dotheopposite · 01-16-14, 10:16 AM

Denver always different team at home. High altitude, visitors get tired faster different game

bods72 · 01-16-14, 10:46 AM

I haven't seen the first half line, but would definitely be looking for IPFW first half. They seem to get out to a fast start almost every game.

Rangers901 · 01-16-14, 11:02 AM

I think that Denver's home court is being over valued, and IPFW is still being undervalued.

IMO, they've been the best shooting team in the country.

To be one of the best shooting teams in the country through 19 games is no longer luck.

Their main weakness is on the boards, but Denver is a horrific rebounding team as well.

Personally, I'm on IPFW +8 and ML, and would play this every time I'm given the opportunity.

PorkChop · 01-16-14, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Rangers901

I think that Denver's home court is being over valued, and IPFW is still being undervalued.

IMO, they've been the best shooting team in the country.

To be one of the best shooting teams in the country through 19 games is no longer luck.

Their main weakness is on the boards, but Denver is a horrific rebounding team as well.

Personally, I'm on IPFW +8 and ML, and would play this every time I'm given the opportunity.

With you. Give me the team who's 7th best in nation in field goal pct.

bosigga · 01-16-14, 11:15 AM

Liking them too, Denver has a bit better defense but numbers still point to IPFW. What's the strength of schedules look like?

2daBank · 01-16-14, 11:20 AM

id be shooting at a really high clip as well if i played the cup cakes ipfw has played all season, seriously 2 teams in the top 100 and a schedule littered with teams in the 200-300s ..330th overall strength of schedule vs denver's 59th.. playing in den tough for a lot of reasons from altitude to their grind it out type style of play, they will defend the 3 better than most the teams ipfw have seen and they will also turn them over quite a bit. den has at least beaten some decent teams and now get to face one of the worst defenses you gonna find.. understand what y'all saying but to me you either play den or nothing here, id pass unless line gets bet down to like -6 then id consider den..

2daBank · 01-16-14, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

id be shooting at a really high clip as well if i played the cup cakes ipfw has played all season, seriously 2 teams in the top 100 and a schedule littered with teams in the 200-300s ..330th overall strength of schedule vs denver's 59th.. playing in den tough for a lot of reasons from altitude to their grind it out type style of play, they will defend the 3 better than most the teams ipfw have seen and they will also turn them over quite a bit. den has at least beaten some decent teams and now get to face one of the worst defenses you gonna find.. understand what y'all saying but to me you either play den or nothing here, id pass unless line gets bet down to like -6 then id consider den..

well shit, looks like someone was good with the -7.5 cause den just got slammed.. now i guess it total pass for me at -8.5 or 9..maybe y'all can bet it back down for me

jdooley3 · 01-16-14, 11:29 AM

Would you take IPFW in a +10 tease at these levels?

dotheopposite · 01-16-14, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

With you. Give me the team who's 7th best in nation in field goal pct.

Stats are meaningless against crap opponents. How well do they perform on the road? Glad you asked..out of 8 road games they have played this year, they have lost 50% of them. The ones they won? Glad you asked...all wins again sub .500 teams. So I am not trying to be an @ss but break the game down and look closer.

P.S. - If it was a gimme, the line would be moving different..Now it's IPFW +9..you can get a better deal now

Rangers901 · 01-16-14, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by dotheopposite

Stats are meaningless against crap opponents. How well do they perform on the road? Glad you asked..out of 8 road games they have played this year, they have lost 50% of them. The ones they won? Glad you asked...all wins again sub .500 teams. So I am not trying to be an @ss but break the game down and look closer.

P.S. - If it was a gimme, the line would be moving different..Now it's IPFW +9..you can get a better deal now

There's different perceptions of value.

People apply different analysis in order to arrive at a selection they consider has value.

I create a lot of my own numbers, and rarely pay attention to any mainstream statistics such as FG%, Rebounding, etc.

Bottom line, is if you're using statistics that every Joe has access to with 3 clicks on ESPN, then that's your call.

I don't like revealing the methods, angles, etc. I explore and and apply, because I've met very few who use similar methods, and it's been quite successful for me thus far.

I enjoy sharing picks and analysis when I have time, but I'll never give a detailed write up, except for a couple of surface stats.

312 · 01-16-14, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by PorkChop

14-5, 1st place at 7-9 Denver.

Someone needs to explain this to me

I'm with you man, i love this team they have padded me wallet very nicely this year

dotheopposite · 01-16-14, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by Rangers901

There's different perceptions of value.

People apply different analysis in order to arrive at a selection they consider has value.

I create a lot of my own numbers, and rarely pay attention to any mainstream statistics such as FG%, Rebounding, etc.

Bottom line, is if you're using statistics that every Joe has access to with 3 clicks on ESPN, then that's your call.

I don't like revealing the methods, angles, etc. I explore and and apply, because I've met very few who use similar methods, and it's been quite successful for me thus far.

I enjoy sharing picks and analysis when I have time, but I'll never give a detailed write up, except for a couple of surface stats.

Well, the advantage is the public appears to like Denver. This actually plays to the advantage of IPFW..slightly. I might pick them up at 10 if it gets there. I agree with percent stats..that is what I was saying..that they are meaningless depending on the level of competition.

stuck621 · 01-16-14, 01:12 PM

wait til it gets to +10

hustlehard617 · 01-16-14, 01:26 PM

It's +10 at herritage now

chalk46 · 01-16-14, 01:30 PM

I've got 10 at one book and it's circled at 9.5 on my other book. My guess is an injury or some sort of disciplinary action.

TheChumba · 01-16-14, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by dotheopposite

Well, the advantage is the public appears to like Denver. This actually plays to the advantage of IPFW..slightly. I might pick them up at 10 if it gets there. I agree with percent stats..that is what I was saying..that they are meaningless depending on the level of competition.

Where are you seeing the public is on Denver. I am seeing 65% on IPFW

chalk46 · 01-16-14, 02:15 PM

I'm seeing 63/37% on IPFW too

Husker36 · 01-16-14, 04:53 PM

So public is on IPFW and the line is now up to 10? Serious RLM here. Do we run?

Louisvillekid1 · 01-16-14, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by Husker36

So public is on IPFW and the line is now up to 10? Serious RLM here. Do we run?

Guys don't worry so much about the movement, except for a few situations.

Cap the game at every angle you can find, and stick to your guns.

NO action here for me

sportsguy04 · 01-16-14, 05:19 PM

It's Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne a small d1 school here guys.. C'mon now..

Denver 62-49.

Zeus54 · 01-16-14, 05:39 PM

IPFW is becoming one of my favorite teams to bet on this season. Put some action on them at +255 last week against NDSU and they cruised to a fairly easy W.

Originally posted by sportsguy04

It's Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne a small d1 school here guys.. C'mon now..

Hopefully the oddsmakers stay this narrow-minded when it comes to IPFW because I love how they seemingly get so many points each game lol.

stuck621 · 01-16-14, 11:03 PM

I still don't get why there isn't love for IPFW from the oddsmaker....they are a team that might go dancing

PorkChop · 01-17-14, 01:07 AM

boom.

PorkChop · 01-17-14, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by sportsguy04

It's Indiana Purdue Fort Wayne a small d1 school here guys.. C'mon now..

Denver 62-49.

No coincidences · 01-17-14, 01:09 AM

As I said in a different thread, weirdest line of the year.

Closed at +10.

PorkChop · 01-17-14, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

As I said in a different thread, weirdest line of the year.

Closed at +10.

Made no sense to me when i first saw it this morning at +7.5 and the fact that it went up to +10 seemed nuts to me. No way in hell was Denver winning this game by double digits.

Haven't hit a +450 ML in quite some time. That felt great.

PorkChop · 01-17-14, 01:30 AM

Ill play them again if there any kind of underdog Saturday @ South Dakota

Zeus54 · 01-17-14, 01:49 AM

Originally posted by stuck621

I still don't get why there isn't love for IPFW from the oddsmaker....they are a team that might go dancing

It's gonna suck if and when the oddsmakers catch on. IPFW just straight fukking money this year.

And lol @ the moron in this thread that said Denver would roll by double digits strictly because IPFW is a no-name school.

You shouldn't be betting, dude.

chalk46 · 01-17-14, 02:32 AM

^ I'd say we've seen the last of favorable lines for IPFW. That's twice in a week span that they've been 7pt or more dog and won SU

dotheopposite · 01-17-14, 09:02 AM

Nice win for them last night. I didn't think they would but they pulled it out. GJ

alamo · 01-17-14, 12:32 PM

Always nice when Vegas gives out these gifts to their clients. I had this at -2max to Denver. When I saw the -7.5 I unloaded on IPFW, Couldnt believe my eyes when I came back later and saw -10 (actually thought the books had made a line error and might not honour) so I unloaded again. A months wages in a day thanks to the January gift from LV