New strategy for college hoops

Vinnie Paz · 12-10-13, 05:22 PM

Been doing well betting big favorites first half ATS. when i bet big favs full game i almost always get fukked over.

Big favorites = 10pts at least...

BOL to you Irish

Grease King · 12-10-13, 05:50 PM

Big favorites covering the first half spread can work well often. It's the second half when the backups get some play time that can ruin the big spreads

irish1 · 12-10-13, 07:55 PM

Already crashed and burned

both teams shot over 60% from three point land! went over 80, you just can't make this shitt up man.

I guess when you bet the under, in a way your betting on a lousy shooting first half. Indiana usually uses clock, passes the ball around until an open look comes up, patience is part of their game. That's one reason I chose the under but how often do both teams shoot 60% from threes? dropped 55

Mr. Doughnut · 12-10-13, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by irish1

Already crashed and burned

both teams shot over 60% from three point land! went over 80, you just can't make this shitt up man.

I guess when you bet the under, in a way your betting on a lousy shooting first half. Indiana usually uses clock, passes the ball around until an open look comes up, patience is part of their game. That's one reason I chose the under but how often do both teams shoot 60% from threes? dropped 55

For future reference, Indiana does NOT play slow. Yeah, 25 years ago they did. Under Crean they have one of the fastest paces of play of any big ten team. Right there with Iowa typically.

irish1 · 12-11-13, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Mr. Doughnut

For future reference, Indiana does NOT play slow. Yeah, 25 years ago they did. Under Crean they have one of the fastest paces of play of any big ten team. Right there with Iowa typically.

Maybe because of the low scoring output against Syracuse which was 52 total points and the low scoring output against UConn 58 total points in both losses made me think they changed to a slow down Wisconsin type offense. I know they beat up on shitty teams, its the good ones they can't defeat. I still thought 74 was high no matter the case. More games coming up.

irish1 · 12-11-13, 01:59 PM

Going with the moneyline on Arizona 200/ risking 2500. Moneyline is -1250.

I finished lousy in College football the last week but finished up over 3300 clams to the good. Moneyline is easy money with the right games, even though I had a real scare with Iowa St. they still came through. Still up 75 clams in hoops and will increase it tonight. Iowa St. and Iowa play Friday night. Should be a great game to watch.

RollinDo · 12-11-13, 03:48 PM

I am with ya' on taking the ML on games.
I have a 4-way parlay with Ohio St. ML (-20), Wisky ML (-17), Arizona ML (-14.5), and Minnesota T-Wolves ML (-13) tonight, and Broncos ML (Thurs. night football)

It pays -150, but I think it will hit...but 1 of those is bound to give me a scare.

RollinDo · 12-11-13, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by irish1

Going with the moneyline on Arizona 200/ risking 2500. Moneyline is -1250.

I finished lousy in College football the last week but finished up over 3300 clams to the good. Moneyline is easy money with the right games, even though I had a real scare with Iowa St. they still came through. Still up 75 clams in hoops and will increase it tonight. Iowa St. and Iowa play Friday night. Should be a great game to watch.

Only thing is AZ has been playing in tight games lately. Hopefully they will not let their #1 ranking get to their heads. I bet the ML on Mich. St. (-500) last week in a 2-way parlay and they lost. Good thing I didn't go straight up.

irish1 · 12-11-13, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Only thing is AZ has been playing in tight games lately. Hopefully they will not let their #1 ranking get to their heads. I bet the ML on Mich. St. (-500) last week in a 2-way parlay and they lost. Good thing I didn't go straight up.

I hear ya RollinDo but you played that MS moneyline against UNC, a much more formidable opponent then New Mexico State. No one knows more than me how much the moneyline could cost you. I was in shock for three quarters of the Iowa St./ Northern Iowa game.

I was 10-2 with the moneylline is college football this year. The one loss was Stanford against Utah and the Cardinals cost me 1650. The other was a dog that only cost me 100 but the other 10 wins really lined my pocket. Hey Good Luck with that parlay

irish1 · 12-11-13, 07:59 PM

Adding Wisky over 132.5 , 50/55. Milwaukee looks like they have some offense and an interstate rivalry could make it an enjpyable game. Like the over.

irish1 · 12-12-13, 07:23 AM

Even though in a previous post I said Wisky was a slow paced pass the ball around offense, I still went with the over anyway

. 132.5 just didn't seem that high and you know how some interstate games can get. So I dropped 55 clams on that one

but when you use the moneyline cautiously you will benefit most of the time

+200 on the Arizona game. +145 for the night! 2w-0L on the ML.

irish1 · 12-13-13, 08:29 AM

No action for me tonight with just these three games. However, that Iowa St/Iowa game is gonna be a good one. Both teams are high octane and it should be high scoring and exciting. I like Iowa St here even though they barely got past Northern Iowa. Hey, Iowa just barely got past the Fighting Irish and had to go to overtime with Xavier. I say Iowa St. wins a close game at home but should cover 3 pts. If the over isn't ridiculous I might change my mind.

irish1 · 12-13-13, 10:35 AM

Memphis Moneyline is absurd -11,000. Now Memphis is a guaranteed win but that kind of ML is insane. If half the team came down with a bad virus you could be screwed.

Now that would never happen but -11,000 is the book saying Memphis is a lock and they want u to stay away from it. It worked I would not risk 11 grand for a hundred dollars.

Capper1124 · 12-13-13, 12:18 PM

GL to you Irish

irish1 · 12-13-13, 02:47 PM

I got 167 for the over and I 'm going 50/55. I am however routing for the cyclones but lets just have a high scoring game, maybe a double overtime with the cyclones coming out on top.

irish1 · 12-14-13, 02:35 PM

Pushed on the Iowa State over. Today I'm going with the ML on the Ohio State vs North Dakota State game. -1300 in favor of the Buckeyes, so I will risk 2600 to bag 200.

Woke up real late today and missed out on some good early games. The Buckeyes seem to be getting better with each passing game.

irish1 · 12-15-13, 09:42 AM

3W-0L on the moneyline up and up 345. Today I'm going with the Villanova Wildcats vs Lasalle Explorers on the ML. It is -1100, so wager is 200/risk 2200.

Adding over 67 1st half 50/55 in the Nova game.

irish1 · 12-15-13, 02:33 PM

Just got it in over 144 Nova game!! 50/55

irish1 · 12-15-13, 02:37 PM

So that's ML for 200, 1st half over 67 for 50/55 and game over 144 for 50/55 all with Nova vs Lasalle.

adding Denver vs Wyoming 1st half over 55 for 50/55. If two college teams can't reach 55 total points in a half that's pretty bad

irish1 · 12-15-13, 04:52 PM

Going with the Moneyline on the Missouri game. The Tigers are home and coming off wins over UCLA and WV. At home vs Western Michigan doesn't look like that tough of a game. W. Michigan just lost their last game against Northwestern 51-35 final. I'm risking a lot but I just don't see Missouri losing at home. 200/3200 the moneyline is -1600.

irish1 · 12-15-13, 07:26 PM

Hit with the ML on Nova for 200

Hit the 1st half over for 50

lost on the whole game over -55

Pushed on the Denver/Wyoming 1st half over of 55. Pretty pathetic not scoring more than 55 in a half but a push is better than a loss.

Up 195 waiting on the Tigers of Missouri!

irish1 · 12-16-13, 08:03 AM

That was 200 the hard way with Missouri!

Western Michigan gave the Tigers everything they could handle and probable should have won but that's the way it goes. Pretty good night hit for 395 total. Up 540 for the year so far and 4W-0L with the Moneyline.

irish1 · 12-16-13, 08:08 AM

Check back for lines on the games but nothing looks to appetizing today. That Duke ML is gonna be ridiculous and nothing else really looks worth taking.

irish1 · 12-16-13, 05:04 PM

The only game that looks interesting to me is Delaware vs North Dakota State. Delaware is not a bad team, they are right there on the same level as North Dakota State. 7.5 points seems to me to be a lot for a game that Delaware could win

This Davon Usher is a player for the Blue Hens of Delaware. I know my new strategy is overs and the moneyline but the games tonight are lousy and the Duke ML is -15,000 so I'm gonna take that 7.5 and the Blue Hens for 100/110. This should actually be a good game to watch if its on tv. Hey, some of Delaware's losses were close games against the Fighting Irish(80-75), Villanova (88-84) games they were in until the very end. Another loss was to the Richmond Spiders and they are not a bad squad. Delaware for 100 risking 110 getting +7.5 points.

irish1 · 12-16-13, 07:59 PM

I decided to go with the moneyline also on the Delaware game. Its +300 for Delaware, so I will wager 100 to win 300. Hey, if I lose its only 100 but if I win its 300. This is worth the gamble!

So I got Delaware +7.5 pts 100/110 and ML 100 to win 300!!!! Come on Blue Hens

jessetk313 · 12-17-13, 11:06 AM

Would providence for this pick tonight?

irish1 · 12-17-13, 12:48 PM

When your star player Davon Usher of Delaware shoots 2-13 from the field and just 1-8 from threes, you can't expect to be competitive.

I dropped 210 total, 110 with the point spread and my gamble on the ML 100. I'll make that back with one or two ML wagers. Still up 340!

jessetk313 · 12-17-13, 01:18 PM

Any leans tonight

irish1 · 12-17-13, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by jessetk313

Would providence for this pick tonight?

Providence looks like a good choice for tonight. Just remember these Ivy Schools can be funny, Yale almost beat Rutgers only losing by one point but I would say the Friars should handle them. The ML on that -475. You know Jesse I am going to risk 475 to win 100. Also 200 on Pitt vs Cincy risking 440, the ML on that one is -220. Also going to grab Belmont vs Denver, wager 100 to win 210, the ML on that is +210 to the Bruins. Let the games begin!!!!

irish1 · 12-18-13, 08:22 AM

Could a 10-0 team play any worse than Pitt did last night? Pitt just showed me that the big boys will destroy them in MARCH. Pitt played like shitt and as bad as they shot still could have won the game. They lost that game on the boards, especially the offensive boards out rebounded 16-8 on the offensive glass. Cincy shot like shitt also but got to many second shots. Anyway that game was just a very bad choice for a Moneyline wager -440

Belmont was just a real gamble, they are obviously not the same Belmont of a couple of years ago -100

and finally even Providence was a real sweat job 76-74 over yale, +100

and just like that went from up 340 to down 100. 5W-3L with the moneyline. No big deal just starting over again and will be up 500 again before you know it.

I check out the lines later this afternoon when they come out.

irish1 · 12-18-13, 06:39 PM

No really good moneylines tonight. There are some games with such low lines that I like and the money line is low also that I may as well play it straight up. I just can't see UMASS losing to Ohio so I will lay 1 point for 100/110 and I like the Drexel Dragons vs St. Joseph with the moneyline so low I am going to take the points +3.5 100/110. So UMASS -1 and Drexel +3.5 are my plays for the night. If UMASS is a sucker bet than I'm a sucker. After looking at the players and schedules on both team UMASS is much better on paper. The same for Drexel, only 2 games they lost was Arizona and UCLA both tough teams. St. Joes weak schedule and has really played nobody except for NOVA and got blown out by 30.

Just so people are aware Damion Lee is out for Drexel that is why St. Joes is giving three. He averages 13.6 ppg. This I knew when I placed my wager, still think the Dragons win outright.

irish1 · 12-19-13, 12:08 PM

UMASS

+100, no surprise there! Drexel now that was a surprise to me.

-110. As far as the Drexel Dragons go, when your two star guards shoot 6-24 from the field and 0-5 from three's add that with 12 missed fouls shots and out rebounded that = ASS WHOOPIN no matter who you're playing. Play like shitt and you lose its that simple! Dropped a ten spot and now down 110 clams. Not after tonight going with the money line to in the Utah vs Texas State game. Utah is -1125 on the ML and I am putting 300 on it risking 3375! Lets go Utah, at home favored by 14.5 and they are having a great year so far. They seem to be solid. That's it for tonight!

irish1 · 12-20-13, 08:06 AM

Utah came through with the moneyline and I bagged 300, now back in the black +190. 6W-3L with the ML. Nothing looks good tonight, no action for me. GL to everyone whoever your on tonight, check me tomorrow.

jessetk313 · 12-20-13, 12:25 PM

Just something I've been researching briefly and I thought it might be of interest to you. My numbers are based off the closing line. Dating back to Monday the 9th the -350 to -660 moneyline is 27-7. Home favorites in this range are 24-7 while road favorites are 3-0. So I thought to myself let's dig a little deeper and narrow this down a little but. The -350 to -660 is 20-4. The home fav is 18-4 while the road fav is 2-0. The four losses in this range over this brief timespan were Den @ Colorado State(L) -550, NC ST @ Tenn(L) -375, NMST @ NM(L) -425, Tex @ NC(L) -660. It is easier in hindsight to say I wouldn't/shouldn't have bet this game but when we break it down these losses are all games that shouldn't have been bet. Let's first start with Denver @ Colorado State. Denver has been playing good basketball of late and really all Colorado State had done up to this point was hang tough in a game they lost to Colorado. That is simply not enough justification to lay 550 on a team. Especially one in the Mid-West that we rarely ever see play. NCST @ Tenn- Tenneessee has some quality wins so so far this season beating Xavier, Wake Forest, and GA Tech so this is really the only game out of the loss group that would have been worth betting on IMO. NMST@ NM- First and foremost this is a rivalry game and I usually tend to stay away from rivalry games so that would have been a red flag for me at the beginning. Couple this with the fact that NM had already beaten NMST on their home floor this year so NMST was already 1.) familiar with this New Mexico team and 2.) looking to avenge a home loss just a few weeks back and 3.) that they had played Gonzaga, Arizona, and Drake leading up to this game so they were a much more prepared team for this matchup than earlier in the year. Tex @ NC- these are two big time basketball schools and Texas was 9-1 going in so we knew they were viewing this game as a barometer to see how good they really were. We also already knew that NC likes to play to their competition because they lost to a Belmont team that has lost to South Dakota and then got whooped by Denver but NC has beaten Louisville, MSU, and Kentucky. NC must of not viewed Texas as a threat couples with the fact that they missed 23 free throws they were upended at home by a solid Texas team. Just a side note- NC is 50 for 107 in their last 6 games from the stripe. That is absolutely horrible and this team better drastically improve on that number soon or they are gonna find themselves at home early come March. Needless to say at -660 NC didn't have much value on the ml and would of had to have been a spread play because although this was an upset it wasn't that far fetched that NC could decide to try and sleep through another game against a non top 10 team. Lucky sorry for the long post but I my point is to show that there can be value in high ml plays although a lot of people don't feel the same. I think you can win good money employing your strategy and picking your spots and hitting some harder than others. Just be very careful and lay off the difficult games between two big basketball schools or rivalries or teams that we really don't know how good they are yet. Of course there is always the unknown but out of the 23 total games in this range since Dec 9 the games that lost were really the most plausible to lose. Good luck with your strategy man and I hope my post was informative.