EP36's NCAAB Totals Annhilation

[EaglesPhan36]

Decided to challenge myself in addition to the 2nd half plays, going to try and weed out one or two totals plays MAX per day to see if I know shit about shit. I am a stat whore, so I will be looking over stats, etc. for any picks I make and will try to include a little write-up if possible. Most of the stats I use are from teamrankings.com - which will included offensive/defensive efficiency & possessions per game. Also of course will look at the basic info of PPG & O/U splits for the season.

Fade. Follow. Swallow. Spit. The end result probably is that I don't know shit.

12.2.13: Morehead State-Wright State Over 143 [-110]
Morehead is in the top 50 so far in possessions per game, averaging right around 75. Wright State averages around 71. Both teams land a shade over a point per possession for the season, so that's a good place to start as with the average possessions between the two - 146 or better would be a potential output. From a defensive standpoint, Morehead allows just under a point per possessions, while Wright State gives up a little more than one point per possession. That would have everything as about a wash between offensive & defensive efficiency. Morehead State has scored at least 70 pts in regulation in 7/9 overall. Wright State has scored 70 or better in all eight of their games. Neither defense is extraordinary, giving up 45% from the floor each. Wright State is more effective on offense, shooting 47% for the season. These are also two foul prone clubs, so there should be additional points waiting on the FT line where Wright State shoots very well @ 76%, while Morehead is a bit of a liability in the lower 60s. Still, more chances = more points.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pushed it. Looked like an easy cash with about 2:00 left and then pretty thankful for getting the push after they went scoreless for about 1:30 of that last two minutes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 0-0-1 [+0.00]

12.3.13: Colorado State-Colorado Over 146 [-110]
As far as possessions per game, we're looking at two teams right under the D1 average. Both average right around 70 possessions per game. Colorado has one of the better defensive efficiencies, allowing just 0.927 pts per possession. That ranks 52nd. Colorado State is far more giving, yielding 1.03 pts per possession - so expect the Buffs to score well. From an offensive standpoint, both are very efficient. The Buffs rank 45th in D1 at 1.11 pts per possession, while Colorado State isn't too far behind at 1.09. That's why we see both teams averaging upwards of 78 ppg. Colorado because of the solid D has given up only 66 ppg, while CSU gives up nearly 73 ppg on 46% shooting. Some of CU's defensive #s could be the result of inferior competition, so given CSU's efficiency on offense - I would expect they can score tonight. The Buffs have put up 70 or better in 6/8 overall and 80+ in four games. Colorado State has topped 70 in 6/8 also and has topped 80 in 4/6 @ home, although none against great competition. Solid FT shooting teams, although neither is excessively foul prone. Given CSU has given up points to legit offenses, I would expect Colorado should have a shot to net their average or more. CSU is the wildcard here. If they can sniff 70, this should have a great chance.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 0-1-1 [-1.10]

[EaglesPhan36]

N.C. State-Northwestern Over 141.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.5.13: Seton Hall-LIU Brooklyn Over 144 [-110]
LIU has a piss poor defense, allowing 80 ppg on 50% shooting. Seton Hall plays fairly fast with 73 possessions averaged per game & they average a shade more than a pt per possessions @ 1.02. LIU averages right around one pt per poss with 70 possessions. Tempo & terrible D will be the keys in this one. Seton Hall is one of the more foul prone teams in D1, so that could help as LIU is a decent FT shooting club and also can take advantage of the Pirates lack of perimeter D at times. If the Hall can gauge LIU's D as most have, LIU will probably need something in the 60s to help cover.

[EaglesPhan36]

San Diego-San Diego State Over 131.5 (-110)

[BrickShotShawn]

Liked this one all day. Put some on it already before I saw this thread. Gonna add a little more now that I see you like it. Let's hope we hit it. BOL

[EaglesPhan36]

San Diego State absolutely shit on that total. Didn't score a FG in the last five minutes I believe. Wound up at 129.

Record: 1-3-1 [-2.30]

[BrickShotShawn]

Yup thought we'd catch a break & San Diego would hit that three late.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.7.13: Penn State-Marsall Under 161.5 [-110]
Penn State averages around 70 ppg, but utilizes those well with a 1.16 pts per possession ratio. Marshall likes the high tempo as they average 79 ppg, but are less efficient at 1.02 pts per poss. Defensively, Marshall allows a little less than one pt per poss, while Penn State allows a shade over a point. Two foul prone teams, so there could be quite a few FTs. Fortunately, Marshall is horrid at the line - shooting just 60% on the season. Penn State is solid at around 75%. This could certainly blow by this, but both teams have been a shade lower than their season numbers lately so I think this one could stick in the 150s unless both teams shoot out of their minds.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.7.13: St.Joseph's-Villanova Over 145 [-110]
Villanova is still in the Top 40 in the # of possessions per game at nearly 76. St.Joe's is much more modest with about 68 ppp. Villanova is a solid efficiency club on offense at 1.06 pts per poss and should put up numbers against a St.Joe's squad giving up 1.05 ppp on 45% shooting. The three teams closest in comparison to 'Nova tempo/efficiency wise that St.Joe's played were Temple, LSU & Creighton with 77 or more scored by the opposition in each game. St.Joe's is solid from an efficiency standpoint offensively, putting up 1.08 ppp. Villanova is one of the top defensive efficiency teams, giving up just .855 ppp. The Hawks have been able to score at least 65 in each game this season though, so they should be confident of getting theirs. If 'Nova gets close to their average near 80, this should be in good shape to get done late with perhaps some fouls where Villanova is a little prone.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.7.13: Penn State-Marsall Under 161.5 [-110]
Penn State averages around 70 ppg, but utilizes those well with a 1.16 pts per possession ratio. Marshall likes the high tempo as they average 79 ppg, but are less efficient at 1.02 pts per poss. Defensively, Marshall allows a little less than one pt per poss, while Penn State allows a shade over a point. Two foul prone teams, so there could be quite a few FTs. Fortunately, Marshall is horrid at the line - shooting just 60% on the season. Penn State is solid at around 75%. This could certainly blow by this, but both teams have been a shade lower than their season numbers lately so I think this one could stick in the 150s unless both teams shoot out of their minds.

Wow. 132 pts with 5:00 left and a 24 pt lead for Penn State. 35 pts later, it ends over. I loathe unders, this is more proof why.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well 1-1, that's alright I suppose. May look at a third for the late games. Saturday will be the only day I play more than two.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.7.13: Portland State-Portland Over 142.5 [-110]
Portland is the higher tempo squad, averaging 75 possessions, while State gets about 68. Portland is the more efficient offensive club, with about 1.05 ppp compared to 0.97 for Portland State. Portland is also fairly stingy on defense, allowing just 0.95 ppp while State allows right around a point per possession. Neither team is overly heavy on fouls, so not counting on that for extra points. Portland though has been brilliant scoring the ball, netting 80 ppg. Portland State has scored better at home lately, with 77 points or better in 3/4 @ home. Portland will be the team that needs to push the scoring. Given the numbers, they should get 75-80 if the averages hold. Portland State probably needs to get into the mid 60s to help.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-4-1 [-1.40]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.8.13: Niagara-St.Peter's Over 151.5 [-110]
Niagara wants to play fast, fast, fast as evidenced by their 81 poss. per game average which ranks 4th in D1. St.Peter's is a stark contrast, averaging 68 possessions. Defense or lack thereof is where I start. Niagara has given up 80 or more in EVERY GAME they have played. That's nine games against poor, average and good offenses. St.Peter's only averages 67 ppg, but should take advantage of a defense that gives up 1.1 points per possession. Niagara gets a St.Peter's D that gives up 1.04 ppp. Neither team is super efficient, averaging a shade under one point per possession - but I think the leaky Ds trump the inefficient offenses. Niagara is also one of the top three teams in # of fouls committed, so St.Peter's should see lots of time on the line. They shoot about 70%, so that can help today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Or both offenses are f-ing horrible. Wow.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.10.13: Seton Hall-NJIT Over 139.5 [-110]
No write-up, just Jersey.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.11.13
Niagara-Davidson Under 165 (-110)
Truly nightmarish numbers for both defenses, so we should not be surprised if points come. However, Niagara has shot like there is a lid on the basket in their last three. Davidson shoots better, but can struggle at times. Seems high based on recent trends.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-6-1 [-2.60]

[EaglesPhan36]

12.13.13: Colorado-Elon Over 147 [-110]
Two very efficient offenses here. The Buffs average 1.10 ppp on about 71 possessions. Elon nets 1.06 ppp on about 70 possessions. Colorado is sound on defense, allowing a low 0.93 ppp - but opponents are still netting close to 66 ppg. Elon's defense gives up right around one pt per possession, but they give up around 72 ppg and those games have come against opponents inferior to Colorado. Elon is high in the fouls committed category which could aid the cause.

[EaglesPhan36]

You gotta be kidding me with this shit. Needed ten points in 3:00 to push and they score f-ing six. Unbelievable.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-7-1 [-3.70]

12.14.13: Wichita State-Tennessee Over 133 [-110]
From a possessions standpoint, we're not looking at two overly quick teams. They combine to average around 135 possessions per game. Offensively, the efficiency is solid with both teams ranking inside the Top 20% in D1. Tennessee somewhat surprisingly is ranked 13th best in offensive efficiency at 1.17 pts per poss. They will be up against a Wichita State D that is among the most efficient defenses, allowing just 0.87 ppp. Wichita State has scored at least 70 points in 8/9 overall, while Tennessee has put up 70 or better in 6/8 overall. This will likely be a close call, but if the game stays close - fouling could help bring this home.

[EaglesPhan36]

Think I will just return to my 2nd half plays. I got shit for feel on these. Game started hot. 38 pts in the first 10 mins. 13 in the next ten. I concede!