NCAA 1st Half O/U
Here is how the numbers break down...
I will use a game that has allready past as an example...the FSU/WF game played on February 14th.
1) Go find the last two meetings that these two teams against each other last...note in the meetings both of the home team needs to be the home team and the away team needs to be playing away. For example for the FSU game on 2/14/2009 we need to find the last two matchups where Wake was the HOME TEAM agains FSU...the last two matchups happend on 3/13/08 & 01/20/08.
The numbers for these two games are as follows.
GAME 1 -->
3/13/08
Final .....1...2.. T
FSU......31-39-70
WFRST..26-34-60
Linesmaker Game Total = 138
GAME 2 -->
01/20/08
Final......1...2...T
FSU......31-26-57
WFRST..28-46-74
Linesmaker Game Total = 144
2) Now add the 1st half points up and the second have pooints in each of the previous two matchups. For example...
GAME 1 -->
3/13/08
Final..... 1...2...T
FSU......31-39-70
WFRST..26-34-60
1st Half total = 57
2nd Half total = 73
Linesmaker Game total = 138
GAME 2 -->
01/20/08
Final..... 1....2...T
FSU.......31-26-57
WFRST...28-46-74
1st Half total = 59
2nd Half total = 72
Linesmaker Game total = 144
3) Now that we have added up the totals for the previous two matchups we will compare those two matchups with the line that the odds makers have given us for the days game...we are using the FSU @ WAKE game on 2/14/2009 as an example of how to do this.
1st Half
Game 1 ------> 57 pts
Game 2 ------> 59 pts
Todays 1st half total line --> 67pts
4) Now we see that the line that the odds makers have given us for the game played on 2/14/2009 is about 9 pts higher than both of the previous two matchups that the two teams have played at the same venue...it is irrelevant that the players might be different.
5) Seeing that the line the books have given us is so much higher then the previous two matchups this would qualify as an UNDER 67 play.
6) There are some important filters for this to work and for it to hit at its current 70-80% clip...
Game Played on 2/14/2009
STANFORD VS CAL
Here is an example where the 148 game total showed an over play...
Game we are capping-->
Game #2 --> 137-64-97
*The first number is the oddsmaker total of the game
*Second is halftime totals
*Last is the second half
Now the line is 70 first half even though they both went under the first two matchups. Be careful because the oddsmaker total is 10 points over the last 2 metings total so if your going to play that one would be over or a no play. Below you can find the results of the game...
Summary
Stanford at California
Final......1....2...T
STAN.....50-25-75
CAL.......36-46-82
Here we played the 1st half over 70 and it cashed...
~Milton
I will use a game that has allready past as an example...the FSU/WF game played on February 14th.
1) Go find the last two meetings that these two teams against each other last...note in the meetings both of the home team needs to be the home team and the away team needs to be playing away. For example for the FSU game on 2/14/2009 we need to find the last two matchups where Wake was the HOME TEAM agains FSU...the last two matchups happend on 3/13/08 & 01/20/08.
The numbers for these two games are as follows.
GAME 1 -->
3/13/08
Final .....1...2.. T
FSU......31-39-70
WFRST..26-34-60
Linesmaker Game Total = 138
GAME 2 -->
01/20/08
Final......1...2...T
FSU......31-26-57
WFRST..28-46-74
Linesmaker Game Total = 144
2) Now add the 1st half points up and the second have pooints in each of the previous two matchups. For example...
GAME 1 -->
3/13/08
Final..... 1...2...T
FSU......31-39-70
WFRST..26-34-60
1st Half total = 57
2nd Half total = 73
Linesmaker Game total = 138
GAME 2 -->
01/20/08
Final..... 1....2...T
FSU.......31-26-57
WFRST...28-46-74
1st Half total = 59
2nd Half total = 72
Linesmaker Game total = 144
3) Now that we have added up the totals for the previous two matchups we will compare those two matchups with the line that the odds makers have given us for the days game...we are using the FSU @ WAKE game on 2/14/2009 as an example of how to do this.
1st Half
Game 1 ------> 57 pts
Game 2 ------> 59 pts
Todays 1st half total line --> 67pts
4) Now we see that the line that the odds makers have given us for the game played on 2/14/2009 is about 9 pts higher than both of the previous two matchups that the two teams have played at the same venue...it is irrelevant that the players might be different.
5) Seeing that the line the books have given us is so much higher then the previous two matchups this would qualify as an UNDER 67 play.
6) There are some important filters for this to work and for it to hit at its current 70-80% clip...
a. You must make sure that the game total given to you by the bookmakers for the game that you want to wager on is WITHIN 10pts of the previous two matchups linesmakers game totals...
b. If the game total on 2/14/2009 was over 10 pts when compared to the previous two matchups for example 160 instead of 143...then the filter is this would be either only an over 67 1st half or a no play.
7) In past meetings no more than 4 points in totals difference in the first half totals of GM1 & GM2. (My understanding)For Example...
Linesmaker Game 1 total = 138
Linesmaker Game 2 total = 144
Linesmaker Game 2/14/2009 Total Line =143
If this is the case...which in this situation it is then you can play the game under or over the first half line.Linesmaker Game 1 total = 138
Linesmaker Game 2 total = 144
Linesmaker Game 2/14/2009 Total Line =143
b. If the game total on 2/14/2009 was over 10 pts when compared to the previous two matchups for example 160 instead of 143...then the filter is this would be either only an over 67 1st half or a no play.
Game Played on 2/14/2009
STANFORD VS CAL
Here is an example where the 148 game total showed an over play...
Game we are capping-->
Oddsmaker 1st Half Total = 70
Oddsmaker Game Total = 148
Game #1 --> 137-61-98Oddsmaker Game Total = 148
Game #2 --> 137-64-97
*The first number is the oddsmaker total of the game
*Second is halftime totals
*Last is the second half
Now the line is 70 first half even though they both went under the first two matchups. Be careful because the oddsmaker total is 10 points over the last 2 metings total so if your going to play that one would be over or a no play. Below you can find the results of the game...
Summary
Stanford at California
Final......1....2...T
STAN.....50-25-75
CAL.......36-46-82
Here we played the 1st half over 70 and it cashed...
~Milton
