halftime leans for thursday (2-19)

[hoop guru]

Florida International +1.5 1st half
Florida INtl/Troy under 68
-Troy defeated florida international 69-62 on Jan 3. Only reason Florida Intenatonal lost that game was free throw shooting. Florida Intl was 5/15 from the charity stripe while troy was 18/19 from the stripe. Florida Intl shot 39.3% from the field while Troy shot 40%. The halftime score was Troy 32 Florida Intl 27.

Results from 1/9/08 game at Florida
Florida Intl 74 Troy 49 (halftime score Florida Intl 37 Troy 19)
-Florida INtl shot 55.4% Troy 27.9%
-Florida INtl 41 REB Troy 24 REB

Results from 2/23/08 game at Troy
Troy 66 FIU 59 (halftime Troy 32 FIU 29)
-FIU shot 47.8% Troy shot 39%
-FIU had 21 turnovers while Troy had 9 turnovers
-TROY made 21/29 freethrows while FIU made 10/16 freethrows

I like the under because Troy does not shoot well against FIU as troy has failed to shoot 40% in the last 3 games between these two schools. Troy also has been outrebounded by FIU in the 3 previous games. FIU has had a week to get prepared for this game. FIU last played on Feb 12 losing at South Alabama 66-65. Troy is favored by oddsmakers because of better record (17-10) than FIU (10-17). I am going on the under in this game and taking FIU +1.5 points at home. What do you think about this game Biff?

[hoop guru]

MOre leans
New Orleans +1.5 (half)
Weber st+2 (1st half)
Elon +1/2 (1st half)

[BiffTFinancial]

will run forecasts on these right now.

[BiffTFinancial]

Florida International +1.5 1st half
Florida INtl/Troy under 68
-Troy defeated florida international 69-62 on Jan 3. Only reason Florida Intenatonal lost that game was free throw shooting. Florida Intl was 5/15 from the charity stripe while troy was 18/19 from the stripe. Florida Intl shot 39.3% from the field while Troy shot 40%. The halftime score was Troy 32 Florida Intl 27.

Results from 1/9/08 game at Florida
Florida Intl 74 Troy 49 (halftime score Florida Intl 37 Troy 19)
-Florida INtl shot 55.4% Troy 27.9%
-Florida INtl 41 REB Troy 24 REB

Results from 2/23/08 game at Troy
Troy 66 FIU 59 (halftime Troy 32 FIU 29)
-FIU shot 47.8% Troy shot 39%
-FIU had 21 turnovers while Troy had 9 turnovers
-TROY made 21/29 freethrows while FIU made 10/16 freethrows

I like the under because Troy does not shoot well against FIU as troy has failed to shoot 40% in the last 3 games between these two schools. Troy also has been outrebounded by FIU in the 3 previous games. FIU has had a week to get prepared for this game. FIU last played on Feb 12 losing at South Alabama 66-65. Troy is favored by oddsmakers because of better record (17-10) than FIU (10-17). I am going on the under in this game and taking FIU +1.5 points at home. What do you think about this game Biff?

I definitely like the 1H under. forecast: troy, 62-61. that translates to a 1H in the upper 20s for both teams, making under 68 a very strong play. also like taking the points with FIU 1H, though not as much as the under, but i think that both will be plays for me. like your analysis re: last game between troy/FIU, and my only qualifier would be that FIU did have a very good 3-point differential game. this season, troy normally makes and allows 9 3s/game, while FIU normally makes and allows 6 3s/game [net +3 3s/game to troy]; however, last meeting, FIU was 9-22 and troy 3-15. if these simply return to normal, it becomes a 27-point swing in favor of troy. that said, as you correctly note, FIU defends troy well, so we don't have to assume a return to normal. over 3 preceding match-ups, FIU outshot troy from 3 by a total of 2 net.

bottomline: even if FIU shoots FTs like a high school team and makes up for part of that 5-15 performance, they will likely give back that differential, and perhaps more, on 3s. i'd be skeptical of FIU and points for game, but as home dog, the 1H points still look good, but not as good as that 1H under.

[hoop guru]

FIU and the under 68 are the best plays of all the games in colllege basketball. I have also been picking very well on 2nd halfs of college games. Last night, I made a killing first taking Miss +3 in the first half. Than I came back and took MIss on the ML in the 2nd half (it was +200). I took a look at how Tennessesse had done in previous games on the road covering 2nd half spreads. Tenn had been outscoring opponents in their last 2 games. I also took look at Miss and saw that they were outscored in the 2nd half of the previous game against LSU. I saw that Miss in the previous game before last night failed to cover the 2nd half spread and I decided to go with Miss based on that. I also took Wyoming in the 2nd half. Than I took UC Irvine in the first half +1.5 points. With UC IRvine up 16 points in the first half, I took UC Irvine +4.5 points in the 2nd half and won again. I did similar research and found that Irvine failed to cover the 2nd half spread of their previous game before last night. ANd riverside had covered the 2nd half of a game previous to last night. I was telling everyone here on this forum to unload on IRvine last night but everyone was on Riverside -4.5. Irvine won the game by 21 last night. This is happening in basketball where the home dog is winning at half time and than goes to win the game outright. I will be posting plays in the 2nd half of games. I wish had some guts to put teams on the ML in the 2nd half as I did with Miss last night.

If FIU is up at the half, I will take FIU +points in the 2nd half becasue they will win the game tonite. Thanks for your input on FIU and on the under at the half.

[BiffTFinancial]

MOre leans
New Orleans +1.5 (half)
Weber st+2 (1st half)
Elon +1/2 (1st half)

forecasts:
Ark St, 65-58
Montana, 69-68
W Carolina, 72-69

of these, i like weber st the best, then i also like elon. i'm a little skeptical of NO b/c my game forecast has Ark St covering by almost 5, which would put Ark St -2.5 into play as a potential system pick for me [essentially, i have a decent lean on Ark St for the game]. that said, this is just the first piece, and is for game not half, and as we saw with Ohio U 2 nights ago, don't have to avoid a 1H dog just b/c you like the fave for the game.

[BiffTFinancial]

I was tracking UCI, Wyoming and Lakers with you guys after got home from Cleveland State game. You called Wyoming to win outright at about 10:20. UCI was a great pick and never in jeopardy. Lakers were unfortunate L. Your 2H calls are butter of late, and I'm very interested to understand better your thought process [seems that primary indicator is to go contra most recent performance?]. FIU 1H under is almost certainly going to be a 5* play.

[BiffTFinancial]

coupla more forecasts for game unders that might be worth consideration for 1H unders:

Michigan, 62-60
Duke, 69-49 [think i might really like this one; duke is an under team, and out-of-conference games during conference season seem to be relatively low-scoring; they played a 67-50 game at the garden in '07]

[eatdust11]

I'm considering going under the Troy FIU game, but I can't decide if it would be a better play to go 1st half under only or entire game under at 144.5... reduced juice only on full game, so I'm leaning that way. Troy can score a lot of points though, which worries me some.

[BiffTFinancial]

I'm considering going under the Troy FIU game, but I can't decide if it would be a better play to go 1st half under only or entire game under at 144.5... reduced juice only on full game, so I'm leaning that way. Troy can score a lot of points though, which worries me some.

IMHO, first half unders are preferrable if you think a game will be close (which i do in this instance). FTs can add an extra 10 points in the final 2 minutes and send it sailing over (not to mention OT). No juice on a winner. Agree with you though that the game under is attractive, but I think I'll be on the 1H.

[eatdust11]

I'm on board with the first half under on troy... hope it cashes!

[Dbldown11]

Troy is MUCH better at this point in the year than they were in that first meeting

[apk2k6]

I'm all over the FIU/Troy UNDER already:

6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997

[BiffTFinancial]

hoop, coupla more under forecasts:

UCLA, 75-67
Cal, 76-64
Wisc, 68-53 [probably too close to a low number, though]
GW, 68-66

right now, think i'm going with FIU IH under as 5* play, Duke 1H under as 4*, Weber St 1H +2 as 3*.

[hoop guru]

Biff,
I am going to see how 2nd half picks turn out today. Yesterday I was 2-0 in the college picks of 2nd halfs. I took Miss +4.5 and Miss ML (+200) in the 2nd half. My other pick was Irvine +4.5 (2nd half). That pick also covered the ML as Irvine outscored Riverside by 5. I am starting to look for plus points in the 2nd half of games. The case with Irvine was revenge factor. Riverside defeated Irvine by 21 earlier in this season. Irvine was up by 28 late in the 2nd half and than let off a little. I took Irvine because Irvine had failed to cover the spread in the 2nd half of a previous game. I start to look for plays where upsets according to point spreads are possible.

I can see FIU being up at halftime by 3-6 points. IF that is the case, I will take FIU +3 points in the 2nd half. I am going against Troy to cover in the 2nd half as troy has been hot in 2nd half covers in the previous 6 games. FIU was down 16 to Arkansas St at the half in their most recent home game (feb 7). I will post a play on the 2nd half during halftime.

[hoop guru]

Adding another play:

Northern Colorado/Portland St under 67
-Portland st defeated Northern Colorado 57-43 earlier this season. It was a home game for Northern Colorado.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff,
I am going to see how 2nd half picks turn out today. Yesterday I was 2-0 in the college picks of 2nd halfs. I took Miss +4.5 and Miss ML (+200) in the 2nd half. My other pick was Irvine +4.5 (2nd half). That pick also covered the ML as Irvine outscored Riverside by 5. I am starting to look for plus points in the 2nd half of games. The case with Irvine was revenge factor. Riverside defeated Irvine by 21 earlier in this season. Irvine was up by 28 late in the 2nd half and than let off a little. I took Irvine because Irvine had failed to cover the spread in the 2nd half of a previous game. I start to look for plays where upsets according to point spreads are possible.

I can see FIU being up at halftime by 3-6 points. IF that is the case, I will take FIU +3 points in the 2nd half. I am going against Troy to cover in the 2nd half as troy has been hot in 2nd half covers in the previous 6 games. FIU was down 16 to Arkansas St at the half in their most recent home game (feb 7). I will post a play on the 2nd half during halftime.

Will keep a close eye on that one. Love your angle of taking underdogs who cover 1H to cover 2H. Certainly not something to play automatically without other indicators, but like it here [esp after watching it work last night].

Did you have any thoughts on Duke 1H under? I'm playing it regardless, but was wondering if it should be placed in the same class as Troy/FIU 1H under for purposes of tracking progress where we both strongly agree on a game.

[hoop guru]

I do not like taking unders games on espn. Seems like a lot of scoring in the majority of televised games. To me the number is too low (63). What if Duke pours it own for 40 plus by themselves. I have another halftime play. Take Western Kenutucky +1 first half. Western Kentucky pounded AR Little Rock 79-47 earlier this season. In that game, AR Little Rock had only 5 assists and 27 turnovers. AR Little rock shot 34.9% for that game. I also like the under 62.5 1st half in the AR littlerock/Western Kentucky. In their last 3 meetings, AR Little Rock has scored 15, 19, 27 points at halftime against western kentucky. In the game this season at Western Kentucky, AR Little Rock was down at haltime 35-15.

Biff,
What do you think about the under 62.5 1st half of this game.

[Vonnegut]

Playing Denver-3 at the half do you have any thoughts on this one?

[hoop guru]

Denver does not score many points in a game and yet in a half. Its too risky to lay 3 points for them. Denver is a type of a type that if I am getting 3 points at the half, I would take them.

[BiffTFinancial]

I do not like taking unders games on espn. Seems like a lot of scoring in the majority of televised games. To me the number is too low (63). What if Duke pours it own for 40 plus by themselves. I have another halftime play. Take Western Kenutucky +1 first half. Western Kentucky pounded AR Little Rock 79-47 earlier this season. In that game, AR Little Rock had only 5 assists and 27 turnovers. AR Little rock shot 34.9% for that game. I also like the under 62.5 1st half in the AR littlerock/Western Kentucky. In their last 3 meetings, AR Little Rock has scored 15, 19, 27 points at halftime against western kentucky. In the game this season at Western Kentucky, AR Little Rock was down at haltime 35-15.

Biff,
What do you think about the under 62.5 1st half of this game.

That's a good point. You'd think that I'd have learned my lesson with the Pitt/UConn 1H under on espn... Here's hoping that the out-of-conference factor plus Duke giving up points by the boatload last few games offset national tv factor via Coach K's gameplan. I'll have to hope so, as I already played it.

I forecast Western Kentucky to win outright, 65-63, so i see value in both 1H under and WKY +1, although i think that I like the 1H side better than the 1H total in this one. Generally, we've found 1H under value where my forecast is for game to go under by at least 10. Here, it's only going under the game total by 5, so probably risky [though not as risky as Duke...].

[hoop guru]

Net profit is capping Troy/FIU to go over 67.5. I hope we are right about the under.

[GoVols817]

Net profit is capping Troy/FIU to go over 67.5. I hope we are right about the under.

I went big on the Under too. I think it's fairly easy, but I could be wrong.

[007Fatty]

net profit is horrible.
ive seen one of his threads before and he lost a couple grand,
and than he took a break.
so im not sure but i doubt he will cash that play.

[BiffTFinancial]

Net profit is capping Troy/FIU to go over 67.5. I hope we are right about the under.

I dunno from net profit [although Fatty's comment made me laugh], but if he's opposite us on this one, i'm more concerned about him than us, no disrespect. [knock on wood]

[suckatmyjob]

best of luck today nice 2nd half plays yesterday

[hoop guru]

Reggie Dunlap is also capping Troy -3.5 for the game. I hope we are right.

[eatdust11]

ouch.. bad start for the under in the fiu vs troy game..

[hoop guru]

Wow, way too much scoring so far.

[suckatmyjob]

hope FIU keeps it close game or is leading at half

[eatdust11]

well this 1st half under was a loss... ouch..

[hoop guru]

under is screwed

[hoop guru]

26-25 fiu

[profitmker]

I dunno from net profit [although Fatty's comment made me laugh], but if he's opposite us on this one, i'm more concerned about him than us, no disrespect. [knock on wood]

[hoop guru]

28-25, lets go FIU