Sat, Feb 14 Plays

[curious]

I'm not putting up with any more of this stupid shit. These ****ing idiots want to run off every good capper that comes on here, fine.

[Hotdiggity11]

Dude, ignore the idiots. And keep up with the great picks.

[BiffTFinancial]

nice!

[Hells Kitchen]

Interesting capping theory.
There definitly are some hidden gems in there.
Thanks for the hard work.

[gyftosgreek]

curius stop pay attention to this idiots .you doing a hell of ajob for the forum.guys like me always want to learn from guys like you curius.but the decision is yours to do what ever you please to do.will miss your expertise if you deside to stop.

[Snevens88]

curious good mornin amigo...im hopin we can both have strong days today with a strong card for a sucha big saturday...on that note...i have to at least put forth my two sense about playin so many road doggs. i just dont see the value in playin a large sample size of them and i usually concur with ur law of numbers theory and all that. but i feel that finding a good road dawg is often difficult and those selections shouldnt go overlooked. Just my opinion...BOL my friend, any comments from ur end are appreciated as well.. always good to bounce ideas

[WestsidePete]

snevens...curious probably has a ml on when your mail will be delivered today...just his style to pay a huge card...we can see plays in here though that fit for each of our cards though...

[curious]

curious good mornin amigo...im hopin we can both have strong days today with a strong card for a sucha big saturday...on that note...i have to at least put forth my two sense about playin so many road doggs. i just dont see the value in playin a large sample size of them and i usually concur with ur law of numbers theory and all that. but i feel that finding a good road dawg is often difficult and those selections shouldnt go overlooked. Just my opinion...BOL my friend, any comments from ur end are appreciated as well.. always good to bounce ideas

I always play far more road teams than home teams because the home team lines are almost always over valued.

[Rixsaw]

It's good to see you posting again. BOL

[strobeve]

Lets cash curious, pockets are not as deep as yours, so I'm stayin at the top of the lists.

[Snevens88]

i really have to disagree with the value being higher on gettin the cover with a large sample size of road favs AND dogs compared to that of the home FAV getting the cover

[coreygman]

I really like that Utah State place also, I am doing one bet today, and thats the one! Money Line

[curious]

i really have to disagree with the value being higher on gettin the cover with a large sample size of road favs AND dogs compared to that of the home FAV getting the cover

I don't know what this means.

I look at each line in terms of what the line should be given my prediction model. Then I look at what the line is. If the line offered by the books is better than the line given by my prediction model by a minimum % then I have a play, if not then I don't have a play.

I'm not saying that taking the road dogs blindly produces value.

I never said that the value was higher in getting the cover with a large sample size of road favs and dogs. In the first place I don't lay points on favs so I could care less if they cover or not. I only play favs on the money line. In the second place, the way I produce my lists I can't tell which teams are road and which teams are home. I only see what the line should be according to my prediction model and what the line actually is. I can't even see who the team is playing. I do this on purpose so that I will use only the raw numbers.

If the teams I pick on a given day are a preponderance of road teams that is because that is where I found the best values on that day. Other days I might pick a preponderance of home teams. I don't even look at that.

I just looked at all the dogs for today and all of them except La Salle are on the road. I didn't do that on purpose, that is the lines where I found value.

[kempersbh]

If you actually do play everything you post, and you are using a model that finds value, then something must be wrong with the model because you are on both sides and betting against yourself in a lot of these plays.

[curious]

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[spongerat]

very good point curious, road underdogs are undervalued as home teams, especially favorites are overvalued frequently. This is valuable in football teasers as well...

[tblueeyes]

gl 2day!!

[kempersbh]

yes, and I am filtering those out as I have started to do, as I put in my post there are some middles included because I did not have time to remove the other play.

Since my YTD win/loss record is >70% I think I'll just keep using my model.

And yes the model does find middles, but I don't play middles I take the strongest play.

And I don't think the middles constitute a "lot" of the plays.

There were at least 5 plays on there where you listed both sides. I'm just trying to understand that if your model finds an "edge" or "value" on one side, how could it find an edge on the other side as well? There would have to be something inherently wrong with the system, wouldn't it? No need to take it personally, I would think you would want to perfect your system as much as possible.

If you are only playing moneylines, then it wouldn't matter if you won 70% or 80% of the time, it would only matter if you were +/- units. If I played only moneylines and picked a ton of -1000 or greater favorites, i would win >90% of the time, but that doesn't necessarily mean I am winning any money.

Just trying to get a grasp on your strategy is all.

[curious]

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[Ralphie1412]

curious relax

[curious]

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[kempersbh]

You aren't trying to understand, you just came in here to talk shit. Out of all the threads in SBR your first post has to be to come in here and fukk with me? No way.

I have 3 plays that are -1000 or greater favorites. How is 3 out of 56 a "ton"? Oh, and there is no way you would win 90% of the time blindly picking large favorites.

I don't need your advice to "perfect" my system. I am doing just fine without you.

Tell you what. You start your own thread and show us your genius by posting your 90% winners and then we will follow you.

I never said you picked a ton of them, I was just using an example of why win % is not a good gauge of +/- money. I was hypothetically saying if that is all I picked, I would have a have a win % over 90. That is why moneylines favs are what they are. They are taking into account the fact that you will win more than you will lose, but you are giving up the juice to equalize everything.

I don't know what your problem is. I didn't attack you, I just saw something that didn't make sense and pointed out a fact. Isn't this a discussion forum? Why are you posting stuff if you don't want a discussion? Why get so worked up about a message board? If you disagree with me, that's cool, but there really isn't anything to get upset about.

Anyway, good luck with your plays.

[curious]

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[Ralphie1412]

Kemp dont bother, unless you 100% agree with him you are wrong, PERIOD. And then he cries and tells YOU to calm down.

[curious]

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[kempersbh]

Again, I never said anything about making money, I said win/loss percent doesn't mean anything. I am not saying it would make money, but go ahead and give me every -1000 or higher favorite on the board today. I will win 70%+ of them. I don't even need to look. Would I make money with this strategy? Probably not. Would I win 70%+? yes. I never said you only pick huge favs, I just said unit win/loss is the only thing that matters in gambling. Anyway, I can see now you aren't open to anything else, so good luck with your plays.

[Ralphie1412]

i have nothing against you, but you are rude to 80% of the forum, you jump down peoples throats ALL DAY, then i give it to you a little and you throw a temper tantrum like a 2 year old.

[DrStale]

yes, and I am filtering those out as I have started to do, as I put in my post there are some middles included because I did not have time to remove the other play.

Since my YTD win/loss record is >70% I think I'll just keep using my model.

And yes the model does find middles, because I play favs on the money line and dogs + the points with a smaller play on the money line. I don't play middles I take the strongest play. The fact that the model finds middles doe not mean that there is something "wrong" with it.

And I don't think the middles constitute a "lot" of the plays.

I just love these "experts" who come in here and their first post is to talk trash in my thread. So, out of all the threads on SBR, your first post has to be coming in my thread to talk about something that you know nothing about.

Okay, so I counted the middles, there were 8. 8 out of 56. Wow, that is a lot.

This kempersbh has to be a ghost for one of the haters. Why else would his first post in such a large forum be to fukk with me?

This is why people hate this guy. A new guy comes into the thread and asks a perfectly valid question and gets attacked. Seriously, it makes absolutely no sense to post that you're betting on 2 sides of the same wager. But apparently a question is "talking trash" from an "expert" Where do you get this from Curious? Unreal. Also, didnt you say you were going to ignore the "haters"?

Finally I dont understand why we are "haters". You have your mini-brood telling you to "ignore all the haters" when all we do is ask questions. If you would answer them once in a while instead of responding with "FKK YOU AZZHOLE" maybe we'd be "hating" less often.

[Ralphie1412]

agreed, dudes a 2 yr old

[Ralphie1412]

why does it say next to georgetown moneyline covered? They lost

[curious]

.

[Ralphie1412]

you arent getting harrased you girl, its a question, how old are you that you get so rattled and start screaming like an autistic 2 year old? this is america, a free country, and this is a DISCUSSION FORUM, I am allowed to make a comment.

[curious]

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[curious]

Well I hope you ****ing retards and idiots are happy. You have your wish. Another good capper that you drove off of SBR with your constant shit talking. Pat yourself on the back.

[BoomerOK95]

all this chatter and you guys have no picks,