2013-2014 nba/ncaa

[Zeb]

12-44 3pt conversion by Army and it wasn't much better from the field my friend. Piss poor shooting

[Emancipator]

12-44 3pt conversion by Army and it wasn't much better from the field my friend. Piss poor shooting

I'm aware, I jus wanted to know if it was actually Army beating themselves by knocking down open looks or if Air Force was contesting shots and making life difficult for Army shooters.

VCU -20.5 (.55 To win .50) WIN
This one has slaughter written all over it. For Illinios State, only two players that saw playing time last year return, luckily those two guys are a PG Kaza Keane and Wing Nick Zeisloft but that probably won't be enough. Keane did start 10 games last year at point, but couldn't take care of the ball, holding the worst turnover rate out of any PG in the conference, while Zeisloft is more of a shooter who benefited fromt the attention his teammates drew last year that are now gone. The rest of the roster is shored up with JUCO and freshmen and sadly it appears the strongest area for this team is the backcourt. And VCU is VCU. While they do drop some offensive firepower, they will be more balanced on both sides of the ball and won't be like last years team that folded when they couldn't force turnovers as they have players who can play stingy half court defense. I saw what they did to a depleted Akron team in the NCAA tournament last year, and I don't see how this would be any different.

Troy +15.5 (1.10 to win 1.00) WIN
With the Big boys Holloway and Buckner gone down low and Marshall out to start the season, Ole Miss has alot of production to replace early on especially down low, so it seems that Ole Miss will take a step back this year and an even bigger one until Henderson returns, which bodes well for a visiting Troy team that I think has a shot to upset Miss. Troy will be fielding a completely new scheme with new head coach Maestri coming from Western Kentucky, that looks for tough m2m defense, better shots, and overall smarter play. Though Troy is replacing a couple seniors they will still field six more, including two senior guards who started last year which will be important playing in Mississippi. Overall, I think Troy matches up well at guard and may hold the edge down low over a young Ole Miss frontcourt. It will be interesting early on to see how the Rebels adjust to not having a couple freaks of nature starting in the post (It should be noticeable).

Feels good to get your first half point win of the season on opening day. However, it wasn't not the best handicapping (aside from VCU pick), though it should become a bit easier once a few games are played.

NCAA TTL: 2-1 (+0.95) Forgot about the Delaware game, should of bet it.

[Louisvillekid1]

winning start

[Emancipator]

winning start

Always feels good.

[Emancipator]

Manhattan +8 (.55 To win 1.00)
La Salle will be a good team again this year as they return the core of their team from an elite eight squad, but lose their leading scorer from a year ago. They needed to bulk up a little inside down low after getting schlacked by Wichita St 72-58 in the round of 8 and did so in the off-season.

While I think La Salle will have another good year, and a better one than expected if they can battle down low. Manhattan is no slouch and that may have a better frontcourt than La Salle and equally adept perimeter that now that Beamon their leading scorer from two years ago is back from injury, a big plus considering the were a very low scoring team.

But I feel it will be because of defense that Manhattan will be able to cover the spread. They apply nonstop pressure which pairs well with the size that they possess from the shooting spot. With the addition of a upgraded frontcourt with added depth will also help if perimeter players get beat.

Manhattan is also a team that likes slow the game, and they have the backcourt to do it, though La Salle's is top notch as well. I give the edge to the team that does like to play slow ball, especially when that team is taking points instead of covering a spread.

[Emancipator]

Northern Arizona +8 (1.10 To win 1.00)
Last season was a transition year for the Lumberjacks but they should be better in Murphy's second season they lose two guards from their four guard starting lineup a year ago, but return freshman of the year PG Russell and should be important for a pretty young team, Wing Berwenick, and Senior Max Jacobsen to hold down the paint.

UTSA will however be losing its two leading scorers from a year ago, including on of the top PG's in WAC last year in Hale.Therefore, it seems points may be tough to come by this year.

This doesn't bode well against a quick/athletic Lumberjack pressure defense that Murphy will be able to employ in his second year, especially with added depth inside.

This game should be up and down, one that I feel benefits the better backcourt the Lumberjacks have and should use the extra eight to cover.

[Emancipator]

Manhattan +8 (.55 To win 1.00) WIN
La Salle will be a good team again this year as they return the core of their team from an elite eight squad, but lose their leading scorer from a year ago. They needed to bulk up a little inside down low after getting schlacked by Wichita St 72-58 in the round of 8 and did so in the off-season.

While I think La Salle will have another good year, and a better one than expected if they can battle down low. Manhattan is no slouch and that may have a better frontcourt than La Salle and equally adept perimeter that now that Beamon their leading scorer from two years ago is back from injury, a big plus considering the were a very low scoring team.

But I feel it will be because of defense that Manhattan will be able to cover the spread. They apply nonstop pressure which pairs well with the size that they possess from the shooting spot. With the addition of a upgraded frontcourt with added depth will also help if perimeter players get beat.

Manhattan is also a team that likes slow the game, and they have the backcourt to do it, though La Salle's is top notch as well. I give the edge to the team that does like to play slow ball, especially when that team is taking points instead of covering a spread.

Should of hit the moneyline

NCAA: 3-1 (+1.45)

[Emancipator]

2 TM 6pt Teaser (1.20 To Win 1.00)
Boston +18.5- With Lebron not 100% and the way the Celtics have played the past couple games its hard to see the Heat winning by 20+, with Boston covering the spread the more likely outcome. While Boston can struggle to score, they do play defense and slow the game down which is always a boon to a team who's taking points. Washington covered this spread in Miami a few nights ago as well.
Philadelphia +13.5- Cleveland offense is a mess, they've only put up 100 pts once this year in a loss to Milwaukee, and are averaging only 90 pts per 100 possessions including 79 against an average Philly team, this is a revenge game, but I'm betting their lack of offense stifles any chance of a blowout.

[Emancipator]

Northern Arizona +8 (1.10 To win 1.00) WIN
Last season was a transition year for the Lumberjacks but they should be better in Murphy's second season they lose two guards from their four guard starting lineup a year ago, but return freshman of the year PG Russell and should be important for a pretty young team, Wing Berwenick, and Senior Max Jacobsen to hold down the paint.

UTSA will however be losing its two leading scorers from a year ago, including on of the top PG's in WAC last year in Hale.Therefore, it seems points may be tough to come by this year.

This doesn't bode well against a quick/athletic Lumberjack pressure defense that Murphy will be able to employ in his second year, especially with added depth inside.

This game should be up and down, one that I feel benefits the better backcourt the Lumberjacks have and should use the extra eight to cover.

2 TM 6pt Teaser (1.20 To Win 1.00) WIN
Boston +18.5- With Lebron not 100% and the way the Celtics have played the past couple games its hard to see the Heat winning by 20+, with Boston covering the spread the more likely outcome. While Boston can struggle to score, they do play defense and slow the game down which is always a boon to a team who's taking points. Washington covered this spread in Miami a few nights ago as well.
Philadelphia +13.5- Cleveland offense is a mess, they've only put up 100 pts once this year in a loss to Milwaukee, and are averaging only 90 pts per 100 possessions including 79 against an average Philly team, this is a revenge game, but I'm betting their lack of offense stifles any chance of a blowout.

Philly game is not over going into Double OT, but I'm calling it here and will change it if Cleveland does the unthinkable and wins by 14.

NBA: 14-4 (+7.68)
NCAA: 4-1 (+2.45)
TTL: 17-5 (+10.13)

[Emancipator]

Nebraska Omaha 2nd Half +17 (0.55 To win .50)
Seems like too much for an Iowa team down at the half against an underdog who thinks they can win the game now. I'm thinking Iowa will pull this out, but it will be a win of 7 or less.

[Emancipator]

Nebraska Omaha 2nd Half +17 (0.55 To win .50) WIN
Seems like too much for an Iowa team down at the half against an underdog who thinks they can win the game now. I'm thinking Iowa will pull this out, but it will be a win of 7 or less.

5-1 (+2.95)

[Emancipator]

November 11:

Gonzaga -15 (1.10 To in 1.00)
Both teams will take a step back this year, but Colorado is taking one of the largest in the country. It's going to be tough to replace all five senior starters from a year ago who combined for an overall offensive effeciency of well over 500, all of thats gone and so the rebounding a defense that Iverson, Hormung and Eikmeier provided. And while they do have some experience returning, those guys were accustomed to working through the starting five and it will be much tougher now that they don't have the seniors to lean on.

Gonzaga does lose important pieces down low but they will return a very solid backcourt that help ease the transition of the starting five newcomers down low, that did produce of the bench last year. Overall, the quality of possessions on both sides of the ball will fall of some, but it wasn't enough to keep them out of the Top 25.

If this game was in Colorado St, I would be inclined to lay off this game but with it residing in Washington, it negates the elevation factor for the Rams and puts this inexperienced group into the rather intense environment that teams encounter in Spokane ... Should be an easy win.

[Emancipator]

Long Beach State should be a good team to tail once conference play starts, tough non-conference schedule means that effeciency stats that books use should be skewed by the time they hit conference play ... good lines should follow because of that.

[Emancipator]

Sweethear Teaser/8pt (1.20 To win 1.00)
Belmont +14- Delaware went into Richmond and had a chance to pull out a win, I expect no less from Belmont. They had alot of turnover last year but that didn't stop them from making the NCAA Tournament, they're well coached and generally fair well on the road. If they lose, it should be by single digits.
Canisius -4- Coach's son is the senior starting point guard, and arguably the best point guard in is conference. He leads an offense that shoots the three at will, one that should be able to get any shot they want against a soft SD defense. This game should be high scoring, but there's just too much turmoil and turnover with this team for it to make noise in Canisius' home opener.
Northern Arizona +19- Tubby smith is a good coach, but this we're talking about about Texas Tech. This will be a transition year for them, and a difficult one at that with the backcourt looking pretty weak. Northern Arizona did well for me in their first game this year and I expect them to do well enough to cover 19 in this spot, if not covering the 11 point spread.

Stanford -5 (.55 To win .50)
If Stanford becomes more consistent, they should battle Arizona for the conference title with the talent and experience they return to the court.

But this more of a bet on BYU continuing it's struggles against teams that offer stiff competition. They consistently struggle against teams in the top 100 teams in the past few years (one win against the Zags in the past two years, one power conference win two years ago).

Leans:
Western Kentucky +13
UAB -4

[Emancipator]

november 11:

gonzaga -15 (1.10 to in 1.00) win
both teams will take a step back this year, but colorado is taking one of the largest in the country. It's going to be tough to replace all five senior starters from a year ago who combined for an overall offensive effeciency of well over 500, all of thats gone and so the rebounding a defense that iverson, hormung and eikmeier provided. And while they do have some experience returning, those guys were accustomed to working through the starting five and it will be much tougher now that they don't have the seniors to lean on.

Gonzaga does lose important pieces down low but they will return a very solid backcourt that help ease the transition of the starting five newcomers down low, that did produce of the bench last year. Overall, the quality of possessions on both sides of the ball will fall of some, but it wasn't enough to keep them out of the top 25.

If this game was in colorado st, i would be inclined to lay off this game but with it residing in washington, it negates the elevation factor for the rams and puts this inexperienced group into the rather intense environment that teams encounter in spokane ... Should be an easy win.

sweethear teaser/8pt (1.20 to win 1.00) loss
belmont +14- delaware went into richmond and had a chance to pull out a win, i expect no less from belmont. They had alot of turnover last year but that didn't stop them from making the ncaa tournament, they're well coached and generally fair well on the road. If they lose, it should be by single digits.
canisius -4- coach's son is the senior starting point guard, and arguably the best point guard in is conference. He leads an offense that shoots the three at will, one that should be able to get any shot they want against a soft sd defense. This game should be high scoring, but there's just too much turmoil and turnover with this team for it to make noise in canisius' home opener.
northern arizona +19- tubby smith is a good coach, but this we're talking about about texas tech. This will be a transition year for them, and a difficult one at that with the backcourt looking pretty weak. Northern arizona did well for me in their first game this year and i expect them to do well enough to cover 19 in this spot, if not covering the 11 point spread.

stanford -5 (.55 to win .50) loss
if stanford becomes more consistent, they should battle arizona for the conference title with the talent and experience they return to the court.

But this more of a bet on byu continuing it's struggles against teams that offer stiff competition. They consistently struggle against teams in the top 100 teams in the past few years (one win against the zags in the past two years, one power conference win two years ago).

ncaa: 6-3 (+2.20)

[Emancipator]

Indiana St ML (0.75 To Win 1.00)
Saw Belmont play the other night against Richmond and was not impressed with either team but even less with Belmont, sloppy on offense and too small underneath. Indiana St is supposed to have a really good shot at making the NCAA Tournament and a win against in Tennessee against Belmont would undoubtebly help their cause even if this Belmont team isn't as good as last years.

It is Belmont's home opener but I think they'll be in for a letdown against an Indiana State team that returns just about everyone from last years team including start PG Oden, this team was able get wins against Northern Iowa and Wichita St on the road, and Miami (FL) and Mississippi on a neutral court, so I certainly think they'll be capable of winning big games on the road, and I think they'll prove this tonight.

[Emancipator]

SDSU/ARI U147 (.55 To win .50)
Considering that Kenpom has this game pegged at a TTL of 135, with 5 of the last 6 going under between these two teams, this total seems a little too high.

[Emancipator]

Indiana St ML (0.75 To Win 1.00) LOSS
Saw Belmont play the other night against Richmond and was not impressed with either team but even less with Belmont, sloppy on offense and too small underneath. Indiana St is supposed to have a really good shot at making the NCAA Tournament and a win against in Tennessee against Belmont would undoubtebly help their cause even if this Belmont team isn't as good as last years.

It is Belmont's home opener but I think they'll be in for a letdown against an Indiana State team that returns just about everyone from last years team including start PG Oden, this team was able get wins against Northern Iowa and Wichita St on the road, and Miami (FL) and Mississippi on a neutral court, so I certainly think they'll be capable of winning big games on the road, and I think they'll prove this tonight.

SDSU/ARI U147 (.55 To win .50) WIN
Considering that Kenpom has this game pegged at a TTL of 135, with 5 of the last 6 going under between these two teams, this total seems a little too high.

Should of taken points. 16 point lead at halftime was 3pts with 16 to go for Indiana St., FML.

7-4 (+1.95)

[Emancipator]

Florida Atlantic +30 (4.80 To win 4.00)
Due to its poor offense FAU typically relies on it's defense and they will need to against a very efficient Duke team. I'm expecting Kelvin Penn to be able to slow down Parker as I feel he matches up with him fairly well, with the big seven footer holding down the paint.

And on Offense this team plays pretty slow and will be betting that they play very slow and take their time on offense dragging out their posessions, making Duke work on defense so they can cover the 30pt spread.

California -18 (4.40 To win 4.00)
Cal loses crab to the NBA but otherwise returns everyone on a team that went 12-6 in the PAC last year and figures to do better this year. They face an Oakland squad that has lost by 24 and 31 to UNC and UCLA in their first two. I think it's likely they'll lose this by at least 20 to a Cal team that beat Denver by 27 at home in their last game.

[Emancipator]

Add a Unit on on California -20 (4.20To win 4.00) As they will be without a key starter and their sixth man due to rape allegations.

[Manel88]

Add a unit or 4.20? :S

[Emancipator]

Florida Atlantic +30 (1.20 To win 1.00) LOSS
Due to its poor offense FAU typically relies on it's defense and they will need to against a very efficient Duke team. I'm expecting Kelvin Penn to be able to slow down Parker as I feel he matches up with him fairly well, with the big seven footer holding down the paint.

And on Offense this team plays pretty slow and will be betting that they play very slow and take their time on offense dragging out their posessions, making Duke work on defense so they can cover the 30pt spread.

California -18 (2.15 To win 2.00) LOSS
Cal loses crab to the NBA but otherwise returns everyone on a team that went 12-6 in the PAC last year and figures to do better this year. They face an Oakland squad that has lost by 24 and 31 to UNC and UCLA in their first two. I think it's likely they'll lose this by at least 20 to a Cal team that beat Denver by 27 at home in their last game.

7-6 (-1.40)

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Arkansas LR +20 (1.10 To win 1.00)
If you had faded Florida after a loss since 2006 you would have gone 28-11 against the spread, winning 10 of 11 when the spread is 10 or more. Little Rock returns everyone from they had last year that was loaded with Freshman so improvement is very likely.

They did get destroyed on the road last year by good teams but I chalk that up the style played which was fast paced. This year the pace is expected to slow down, and did so in their first game which tallied 65 possessions. Florida plays slow as well and as a result the TTL is projected to be 132. I really like playing big underdogs of 15+ when the total is 130 or less.

[Manel88]

Florida Atlantic +30 (4.80 To win 4.00)
Due to its poor offense FAU typically relies on it's defense and they will need to against a very efficient Duke team. I'm expecting Kelvin Penn to be able to slow down Parker as I feel he matches up with him fairly well, with the big seven footer holding down the paint.

And on Offense this team plays pretty slow and will be betting that they play very slow and take their time on offense dragging out their posessions, making Duke work on defense so they can cover the 30pt spread.

California -18 (4.40 To win 4.00)
Cal loses crab to the NBA but otherwise returns everyone on a team that went 12-6 in the PAC last year and figures to do better this year. They face an Oakland squad that has lost by 24 and 31 to UNC and UCLA in their first two. I think it's likely they'll lose this by at least 20 to a Cal team that beat Denver by 27 at home in their last game.

You have here 4.80 units and 4.40 units and then you quote and change it to 1.20 and 2.15 ?!?!

[Emancipator]

You have here 4.80 units and 4.40 units and then you quote and change it to 1.20 and 2.15 ?!?!

I have a small bankroll and only bet 4 or 5 dollars a game ... I mix it up sometimes.

[Manel88]

I have a small bankroll and only bet 4 or 5 dollars a game ... I mix it up sometimes.

Ok but please pay more attention next time as it can be really bad for someone that follows you