Thurs, Feb 5 Plays

OC · 02-05-09, 04:45 PM

Curious, not to ask a moronic question but you don't typically lay points correct? I think I've seen for the most part that you play moneyline on favs and both money line and points on dogs. I know you've been at this for a while so I'm interested in your strategy behind it. I'm assuming trial and error until you found what works for you? And yes I know picking the SU winner is the first hurdle so your process makes sense.

50lipa · 02-05-09, 04:51 PM

Well the potential income from a low spread dog to win on ML must be good percentage wise. He does the same for dogs in NBA, and i'm guessing he has a line up to which he will play it, some 4-5 points of spread maybe one or two more.

curious · 02-05-09, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by OC

Curious, not to ask a moronic question but you don't typically lay points correct?

I never lay points.

I think I've seen for the most part that you play moneyline on favs and both money line and points on dogs. I know you've been at this for a while so I'm interested in your strategy behind it. I'm assuming trial and error until you found what works for you? And yes I know picking the SU winner is the first hurdle so your process makes sense.

I do nothing trial and error.

I built math models that tell me when there is value in the money line. I find the side that has the best probability of winning, then I see if there is value in the money line. If there is a discrepancy between the value line and the line the books offer I then cap the dog. If the dog looks good and the value on the dog is > a certain % I take the dog.

At the beginning of the year I found many big dogs that the value was on the money line. Then the value was in big favs. Now the value seems to be in home favs where the fav is not huge. I find a dog once in a while but not like before.

curious · 02-05-09, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by 50lipa

Well the potential income from a low spread dog to win on ML must be good percentage wise. He does the same for dogs in NBA, and i'm guessing he has a line up to which he will play it, some 4-5 points of spread maybe one or two more.

If I think there is value in a dog on the money line I will take a spread of any size. I don't have a range that I won't go over. I hit several big dogs (> 10 points) on the money line this year. Boston College springs to mind, I think they were +20. I cap dogs to win the game, not to cover. I won't bet them if I think they cannot win the game.

OC · 02-05-09, 05:12 PM

Originally posted by curious

I do nothing trial and error.

Lol didn't mean it as a knock. Your "math models" explained it clearly as I meant working on a model in a trial basis without wagering to check it's efficiency and accuracy.

Thanks for the explanation and GL tonight C.

curious · 02-05-09, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by OC

Lol didn't mean it as a knock. Your "math models" explained it clearly as I meant working on a model in a trial basis without wagering to check it's efficiency and accuracy.

Thanks for the explanation and GL tonight C.

First I do back testing. Then I do small wagers. These patterns don't stay active long enough to track them on paper without playing them. If the small wagers work out then I up to a medium wager size. If that works then I really up the ante with 1/2 Kelly sized wagers.

curious · 02-06-09, 01:58 AM

18-7 +18 units

No too bad. A couple of bad beats on money line favs. But, we make 18 units, we'll take it.

MicGan · 02-06-09, 01:59 AM

Good Sh#t ... Curious. I actual do better in late games.