Is Non-Conference play totally useless for predicting conference game outcomes?

[curious]

My prediction model was bulls eye accurate at the beginning of the year for finding big dogs on the moneyline.

Then that stopped working and it became bullseye accurate for finding favs on the moneyline.

Now that conference play has started, that has stopped working. It seems like a lot of teams are overrated by the prediction model.

The only thing that is different is that the games are mostly conference play now.

Is non-conference play useless for predicting how teams will do in conference play?

Thanks.

[WestsidePete]

I would say that conference play is different....built in rivalries going back years...and I'm sure the coaches stress the importance of the conf schedule more and players/teams know each other a little better as well

[Husker36]

Conference play is definately different. I have personally been to every court in the Big 12 and MVC. Every environment is different and the crowd can help the home team. Every team reacts differently. Nebraska seems to always get crushed at HOME by Kansas yet always plays Kansas tough in Lawrence. Very strange really.

Today a lot of us bet on Portland St on the road at NAU. Did any of us know that NAU doesnt even have a home crowd?? The offical stat says there were 886 people at that game. SERIOUSLY?? I counted 43! I think that is something to really look at. If Northern Arizona only has 800 people at every game do you really consider a home court advantage??

I know Creighton has a HUGE following for being such a small school in a mid-major conference. Creighton averages over 15,000 per game. Now that is a home court advantage. Other MVC schools usually have about 5k-8k in attendance.

I'd like to see some kind of stat of which teams averages the most number fans. Maybe like a top 50 list. Does anyone have something like that?

[Husker36]

I did find this.....
SEC attendance
1. Kentucky Wildcats - 23,125 - #1 in the nation!!
2. Tennessee Volunteers - 19,268 - # 5 in the nation in 2006
3. Arkansas Razorbacks - 16,150 -- #12 in the nation
4. South Carolina Gamecocks - 12,870
5. Florida Gators - 11,614
6. Alabama Crimson Tide - 11,348
7. Vanderbilt Commodores - 11,223 -- was #24 in the nation in 2006
8. LSU Tigers - 9,706
9. Mississippi State Bulldogs - 9,032
10. Georgia Bulldogs - 6,778
11. Auburn Tigers - 4,680
12. Ole Miss Rebels - 4,125

[Husker36]

I was really interested in finding this info out... and here is what I found......
I wonder if this info is worth considering when wagering on or against a team.
I see Creighton is 13th in the NATION. Pretty impressive!

TOP 25 ATTENDANCE FOR 2007 NCAA BASKETBALL

1. Kentucky Wildcats - Averaged 23,421 at Rupp Arena (Capacity: 23,500)
2. Syracuse Orange - Averaged 21,516 at Carrier Dome (Capacity: 33,000)
3. North Carolina Tarheels - Averaged 20,693 at Dean Dome (Capacity: 21,750)
4. Tennessee Volunteers - Averaged 19,661 at Thompson-Boling (Capacity: 24,535)
5. Louisville Cardinals - Averaged 18,488 at Freedom Hall (Capacity: 18,865)
6. Ohio State Buckeyes - Averaged 17,530 at Schottenstein (Capacity: 19,200)
7. Wisconsin Badgers - Averaged 17,190 at Kohl Center (Capacity: 17,190)
8. Maryland Terrapins - Averaged 16,822 at Comcast Center (Capacity: 17,950)
9. Arkansas Razorbacks - Averaged 16,720 at Bud Walton Arena (Capacity: 19,200)
10. Illinois Fighting Illini - Averaged 16,618 at Assembly Hall-IL (Capacity: 16,168)
11. Indiana Hoosiers - Averaged 16,474 at Assembly Hall (Capacity: 17,456)
12. Kansas Jayhawks - Averaged 16,300 at Allen Fieldhouse (Capacity: 16,300)
13. Creighton Blue Jays - Averaged 15,909 at Qwest Center (Capacity: 17,560)
14. Marquette Golden Eagles - Averaged 15,345 at Bradley Center (Capacity: 19,000)
15. Michigan State Spartans - Averaged 14,759 at Breslin Center (Capacity: 16,280)
16. Memphis Tigers - Averaged 14,527 at Fedex Forum (Capacity: 18,119)
17. Arizona Wildcats - Averaged 14,202 at McKale Center (Capacity: 14,545)
18. NC State Wolfpack - Averaged 13,952 at RBC Center (Capacity: 19,722)
19. Virginia Cavaliers - Averaged 13,521 at John Paul Jones Arena (Capacity: 15,219)
20. UConn Huskies - Averaged 13,012 at XL Center (Capacity: 16,294)
21. Oklahoma State Cowboys - Averaged 13,008 at Gallagher-Iba (Capacity: 13,611)
22. Texas Longhorns - Averaged 12,696 at Frank Erwin Center (Capacity: 16,755)
23. New Mexico Lobos - Averaged 12,853 at University Arena (Capacity: 18,018)
24. South Carolina Gamecocks - Averaged 12,838 at Colonial Center (Capacity: 18,000)
25. Iowa State Cyclones - Averaged 12,489 at Hilton Coliseum (Capacity: 14,092)

[TPowell]

wow not bad for Louisville. Should be even better with the new arena next year!! Wisconsin averages a sellout? Thats pretty badass

[Husker36]

I think the most impressive is Creighton. For such a small school in a mid-major conference that is amazing. Averaged more than TEXAS?!?!?!

[WestsidePete]

Good stuff...so not that surprising that these have had nice road wins or covers...yes impressed w/creighton...never knew they have such a following...

[Tigers1230]

I don't know about that Memphis number. Especially with last years team. Been close to 17,000 at each game this year.

[Husker36]

I don't know about that Memphis number. Especially with last years team. Been close to 17,000 at each game this year.

Well keep it mind it's an AVERAGE.
Memphis only had 3217 show up to the Chat game this year.... that obviously brings their AVERAGE down.

[curious]

I wonder if there is a relationship between attendance and covering the spread?

[smitch124]

Wisconsin averages a sellout? Thats pretty badass

35% don't know a single player on team, they were just cold and wanted to go inside...