This applies more to the games coming up when most teams are very close and emotion is running so high. NCAA games are unpredictable, to say the least, during the regular season. But add this kind of pressure to the mix and most numbers are thrown out the window because 18 - 22 year olds are more likely to fold. I'm just curious if you change your handicapping style at this point of the year? What angles do you find most telling? etc. The reason is that as I have looked over the games for today and tomorrow, it is just hard to find one single team that I feel has a decided advantage. Here is what I see for tonight:
1) Miami (-5.5) vs. Marquette: I would imagine the Miami is a strong public play after Marquette squeaked out two wins in Lexington, but I lean Marq +5.5. Personally, I thought the Big East was overrated all year and had Marq getting knocked out before this, but tf Marq can keep in the half court I like their chances. Marquette is deep with 9 guys playing double digit minutes. With Reggie Johnson out, that leaves a Miami with a 6 man rotation (5 guards/wings and Gamble inside). Even if Jekiri plays extended minutes, I see him struggling to handle Gardener inside. Marquette may not win, but I see it being a close game. Miami would rather speed it up, Marquette will look to slow it down. Who gets their way? I don't know.
2) IU (-5.5) vs. Syracuse: This is a game that I can't touch. Syracuse plays ridiculous defense and we all know about IU's offense. Which style of play wins out? This will determine the game, right? Syracuse cannot score with IU, but can IU score against the zone?
3) OSU (-3.5) vs. Zona: Who knows here? Arizona has disappointed for much of the season, but seem to be turning it around. Hard to bet against OSU as Craft should shut down Lyons. When Lyons is pressured you can expect wild, forced shots all over the court. However, Zona has the athletes to match OSU's wing players. Who matches up with Hill? Ross or Thompson? I doubt its Thomas as they won't risk foul trouble, so if its Ross or Thompson I have to like the Senior's chances against either Soph.
4) Wichita (-4.5) vs. La Salle: Another toss up to me. Wichita has the advantage inside. La Salle was dominated on the offensive glass by Ole Miss and WSU is very strong inside. However, both teams have been inconsistent all year. No angle on this game if you look at the numbers. It seems like another game of conflicting styles.
To me this is about finding the team that is most likely to dictate the pace of play. If you can do that, I think you will have a successful Sweet 16. The question is, however, which teams will do this?
Thoughts and suggestions, more than just "Take IU and thank me later" are appreciated.
1) Miami (-5.5) vs. Marquette: I would imagine the Miami is a strong public play after Marquette squeaked out two wins in Lexington, but I lean Marq +5.5. Personally, I thought the Big East was overrated all year and had Marq getting knocked out before this, but tf Marq can keep in the half court I like their chances. Marquette is deep with 9 guys playing double digit minutes. With Reggie Johnson out, that leaves a Miami with a 6 man rotation (5 guards/wings and Gamble inside). Even if Jekiri plays extended minutes, I see him struggling to handle Gardener inside. Marquette may not win, but I see it being a close game. Miami would rather speed it up, Marquette will look to slow it down. Who gets their way? I don't know.
2) IU (-5.5) vs. Syracuse: This is a game that I can't touch. Syracuse plays ridiculous defense and we all know about IU's offense. Which style of play wins out? This will determine the game, right? Syracuse cannot score with IU, but can IU score against the zone?
3) OSU (-3.5) vs. Zona: Who knows here? Arizona has disappointed for much of the season, but seem to be turning it around. Hard to bet against OSU as Craft should shut down Lyons. When Lyons is pressured you can expect wild, forced shots all over the court. However, Zona has the athletes to match OSU's wing players. Who matches up with Hill? Ross or Thompson? I doubt its Thomas as they won't risk foul trouble, so if its Ross or Thompson I have to like the Senior's chances against either Soph.
4) Wichita (-4.5) vs. La Salle: Another toss up to me. Wichita has the advantage inside. La Salle was dominated on the offensive glass by Ole Miss and WSU is very strong inside. However, both teams have been inconsistent all year. No angle on this game if you look at the numbers. It seems like another game of conflicting styles.
To me this is about finding the team that is most likely to dictate the pace of play. If you can do that, I think you will have a successful Sweet 16. The question is, however, which teams will do this?
Thoughts and suggestions, more than just "Take IU and thank me later" are appreciated.
