Tuesdan Night NIT: Fade NCAA Bubble Teams

survivalinstinct · 03-19-13, 01:36 AM

Don't have previous years data but just looking at matchups, ky ala and den look like good fades

Fishscale · 03-19-13, 04:41 AM

Fading Kentucky is mandatory. The others, who know, just fade them all and hope for the best. Most of those teams are probably ashamed and want it to be over, while the teams they're playing get a shot at a powerhouse.

Owls · 03-19-13, 05:56 AM

Hard to tell who shows up, probably best thing is to bet the over for these teams, they won't be putting any effort on defense in all likelihood.

thfootball · 03-19-13, 07:29 AM

from what i remember from last year, the teams play a bit loser, and playing on their own court means alot. Have to keep track for next year. Alot of the teams are happy to be playing still.

Regul8er · 03-19-13, 07:33 AM

YA, Ive tried this strategy before, and it backfired. Tred carefully.

Serbone · 03-19-13, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

YA, Ive tried this strategy before, and it backfired. Tred carefully.

Yes, I think you have to consider a lot of things, not simply "go directly against the bubble team with the same wager amount for all".....the type of coach involved... is he up and coming and still hungry and pushing the kids for next yr? And of course the competition, are they competent, up and coming, think they can get to NCAA's next yr, building for that, etc, etc. I think KY on the road might not play hard at all, hell they didnt do well on the road anyway.

So I will handicap each game and bet different units depending upon that assessment.

Hard to know how the kids will react, wtf they are thinking, and I do not have long term "data", but some of these bubble teams in the past simply do not show up, even at home, as big favorites.

SO I am thinking maybe to also make small money lines wagers, fading the bubble teams, and getting a few big payoffs on the ones that collapse. Nothing major, large.

rm18 · 03-19-13, 08:03 AM

home teams usually cover at a very high rate in the NIT, so you are betting almost all road teams here except the Kentucky game

Regul8er · 03-19-13, 08:07 AM

Denver stands out to me as a good play tonight. Very tough at home, plus Ohio travelling half way across the country on short notice.

nyyanks773 · 03-19-13, 09:13 AM

I can see Alabama going down, would be around a +600 win for Northeastern

homerbush · 03-19-13, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by Serbone

I am considering fading the disappointed NCAA bubble teams that failed in their last games, MD, KY, ALA, VA, and Denver in the NIT Tuesday night. Do they want to be there?
KY is on the road to boot, may not show up at all.
Any data on this in previous yrs? I think it has worked to some extent. Thoughts?

i don't have data but the last couple years it as not worked well as before that. Colorado two years ago was considered the biggest surprise left out of you tourney and they still made NIT final four.

Serbone · 03-19-13, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by Regul8er

Denver stands out to me as a good play tonight. Very tough at home, plus Ohio travelling half way across the country on short notice.

Yes, first round time zone travel games in the NIT.... Ohio @ Denver -7, Stephen Austin at Stanford -9, Lehigh at Wyoming -5, Vermont at Santa Clara -8...

Again, you can't just bet them all, and bet the same units, you have to understand the mindset of the team, example being a new up an comer coach who wants to win some games in the NIT and build the program and the kids "buy in". That is a key.

thfootball · 03-19-13, 05:16 PM

heck, i even posted in Lehighs facebook page about what i knew about Wyomng since i've watched them twice on the net. I'm putting some cash on Lehigh, hoping they cover, and maybe win.