Anyone else think the Zags line is too low?

[Frisco]

-5 seems pretty low

[Dilo]

it makes me think st. mary's. but they are playing on a neutral site in las vegas

[Frisco]

Capped it at -7 myself but I understand why it would be lower w/ last years tourney loss to the Gaels. Think they roll tmrw

[Dilo]

sounds like there could be some revenge music playing in the background. but is there any reason to think that gaels can't beat them again?

[Frisco]

Its definitely possible they could but more likely Zags win fairly comfortably. Line just jumped to 5.5 and I'd be shocked if it isn't at 6+ come morning. Gaels lackluster performance against USD is fresh in everyones head and they only won that game b/c the refs wanted this matchup. The conference needed this game to happen

[Dilo]

if that's the case, how do we know the conf doesn't want another national showcase type of game? something that is a concern for bulldog backers is olynyk 3-10 lackluster performance vs loy mar.

[Frisco]

if that's the case, how do we know the conf doesn't want another national showcase type of game? something that is a concern for bulldog backers is olynyk 3-10 lackluster performance vs loy mar.

Anything is possible in these tourney games, just thought there was good value on them @ -5 (which is already moving)

[Dilo]

i agree with you, and think the bulldogs are the right side. but i like you say, it is tourney time and anything can happen. these two squads are rivals and bulldogs beat them twice this year already. three consec times is tough, and that is why i ask if there are any other reasons why we should back down from zags.

[werecats]

Thought you guys would like to see the number comparisons: I personally think it is will be a tough fought game, that should stay close.

St Marys vs Gonzaga Overall Points/Game 75.6 (#17) 59.8 (#30) Opp Points/Game Avg Score Margin +12.4 (#12) -17.4 (#3) Opp Avg Score Margin Assists/Game 14.6 (#50) 9.7 (#14) Opp Assists/Game Total Rebounds/Gm 37.1 (#68) 30.5 (#23) Opp Total Rebounds/Gm Assists/FGM 0.555 (#124) 0.465 (#26) Opp Assists/FGM Assists/Turnover 1.212 (#36) 0.709 (#25) Opp Assists/Turnover	Gonzaga vs St Marys Overall Points/Game 77.2 (#11) 63.3 (#85) Opp Points/Game Avg Score Margin +17.4 (#3) -12.4 (#12) Opp Avg Score Margin Assists/Game 14.9 (#32) 10.4 (#33) Opp Assists/Game Total Rebounds/Gm 37.4 (#58) 28.5 (#2) Opp Total Rebounds/Gm Assists/FGM 0.545 (#150) 0.481 (#43) Opp Assists/FGM Assists/Turnover 1.327 (#19) 0.895 (#132) Opp Assists/Turnover

[Serbone]

if that's the case, how do we know the conf doesn't want another national showcase type of game? something that is a concern for bulldog backers is olynyk 3-10 lackluster performance vs loy mar.

Think.
If anything, THE CONFERENCE will want Gonzaga to win big, get a # 1 seed in the NCAA, and possibly retain it's # 1 ranking in AP and USA Today. Keep them in the limelights. They do not want their #1 ranked team / # 1 seed to get beat by goddam St. Mary's.

[Frisco]

i agree with you, and think the bulldogs are the right side. but i like you say, it is tourney time and anything can happen. these two squads are rivals and bulldogs beat them twice this year already. three consec times is tough, and that is why i ask if there are any other reasons why we should back down from zags.

Nah just thought there was value in the 5 and figured it would be moving up. Always like to beat the line

[Dilo]

Think.
If anything, THE CONFERENCE will want Gonzaga to win big, get a # 1 seed in the NCAA, and possibly retain it's # 1 ranking in AP and USA Today. Keep them in the limelights. They do not want their #1 ranked team / # 1 seed to get beat by goddam St. Mary's.

That actually brings up another thought, #1 teams have been rotated in and out all season. Big Ten, ACC, SEC have had teams ranked #1 nationally. And not to dismiss this zags teams, but the previous #1 teams were just as formidable if not better. I understand your concept, but the thing is I think that so does everyone else. The way the end of the season has unfolded, I wouldn't be surprised if the Gaels pull this out. Line moves are important to me, but I weigh other angles just the same.

[Boddhissatva]

The line does seem low....and the Gaels looked poor against SD. I might just do a money line bet on the Zags.

[Dilo]

Nah just thought there was value in the 5 and figured it would be moving up. Always like to beat the line

We are the same because I always look to beat the line. But what interests me with this line is that its the same as the BYU line, makes me look at it a little different. I always try to be on the right side, but sometimes that's not the winning side, which was evident this weekend.

[Rookie-Capper]

mon

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/teams/team2265.html -4

[Frisco]

We are the same because I always look to beat the line. But what interests me with this line is that its the same as the BYU line, makes me look at it a little different. I always try to be on the right side, but sometimes that's not the winning side, which was evident this weekend.

Yea beating the line means nothing if you're wrong lol. Haven't locked in a play on this one but personally think the Zags take care of business. It's been nothing but dogs these last 2 days and we might be due for a favorite to cover. Kind of wouldn't be shocked to see majority of $$ on Zags and some RLM to make bettors 2nd guess themselves. We'll see tho

[bubblebuttluv]

How do you come up with your line for a game? They way I cap a game is I compare a number of different stats, and factoring in fatigue and home field/court, I come up with who I think will win straight up. But, I can't effectively come up with my own line for a game. Any advice on a method you use?

[bubblebuttluv]

That was for Frisco, or anyone else.

[Speedy88]

Definitely a St Mary's line.

[darrell74]

Gonzaga is the play

[stevenash]

Definitely a St Mary's line.

It's a sharp line.

Almost all numbers suggest this a 5.5 game.
Look at the Sagarin numbers, the Dunkel numbers, RPI's are very close, the SoS's are very close, all numbers are close. Gonzaga has the edge on paper in most categories, but nowhere close to a major edge.

The line is pretty much spot on, if one thinks Gonzaga blows out St. Mary's, then load up on the Zags, I don't want any part of this game however.

Game could go like this. Gonzaga up 5 late, St. Mary's goes into foul mode and loses by 9.
Or
St. Mary's could be down by 1, with the ball, and 00:32 left on the clock, and wins on a buzzer beater (or loses at the buzzer, but covers the number)

Pass, know this though, both teams can fill it up, over 137.5 might be the better option.

[Frisco]

It's a sharp line.

Almost all numbers suggest this a 5.5 game.
Look at the Sagarin numbers, the Dunkel numbers, RPI's are very close, the SoS's are very close, all numbers are close. Gonzaga has the edge on paper in most categories, but nowhere close to a major edge.

The line is pretty much spot on, if one thinks Gonzaga blows out St. Mary's, then load up on the Zags, I don't want any part of this game however.

Game could go like this. Gonzaga up 5 late, St. Mary's goes into foul mode and loses by 9.
Or
St. Mary's could be down by 1, with the ball, and 00:32 left on the clock, and wins on a buzzer beater (or loses at the buzzer, but covers the number)

Pass, know this though, both teams can fill it up, over 137.5 might be the better option.

Think your first scenario is the most likely. 4.5 point teaser of both sides probably cashes in this game

[jinxpro13]

if vegas wanted 50/50 action for this game the line would have opened at 6.5 7 imo..
#1 team in the country favored only by 5.5 over an unranked team? I know the gaels beat them last year, but this line is fishy.
my guess 85% + of the bets will be on gonzaga.
plus the game is in vegas.. has any public fav covered there yet this year?
gonzaga's in the big dance no matter what .. st mary's needs this
something's tellin me to take the gaels.

[HOT WINGS]

Thinking the Gaels win this game, but still going to think on it some more first.

[Frisco]

if vegas wanted 50/50 action for this game the line would have opened at 6.5 7 imo..
#1 team in the country favored only by 5.5 over an unranked team? I know the gaels beat them last year, but this line is fishy.
my guess 85% + of the bets will be on gonzaga.
plus the game is in vegas.. has any public fav covered there yet this year?
gonzaga's in the big dance no matter what .. st mary's needs this
something's tellin me to take the gaels.

Yea despite thinking its too low I just can't lock in a bet, doesn't feel right. Probably just going to live bet this one looking for something juicy

[k13]

Think.
If anything, THE CONFERENCE will want Gonzaga to win big, get a # 1 seed in the NCAA, and possibly retain it's # 1 ranking in AP and USA Today. Keep them in the limelights. They do not want their #1 ranked team / # 1 seed to get beat by goddam St. Mary's.

Or they could want TWO teams in the tournament.....

[SmackdownV]

Gonzaga/St. Marys does this every year.

The WCC want's two teams in the tourney so the +6 tonight is a gift.

Gonzaga is in no matter what.

Blow your wad on St. Marys +6.

Can't lose.

[Frisco]

Or they could want TWO teams in the tournament.....

St. Mary's is most likely already locked in. A win for the Gaels would help make their pathetic conference look more competitive tho

[jinxpro13]

St. Mary's is most likely already locked in. A win for the Gaels would help make their pathetic conference look more competitive tho

st mary's is very far from locked in.

[Frisco]

st mary's is very far from locked in.

I don't think they should be but from what I've been hearing it sounds like they are. Think they still get in w/ a close loss tonight

[jinxpro13]

I don't think they should be but from what I've been hearing it sounds like they are. Think they still get in w/ a close loss tonight

definitely not a sure thing. they've had a couple bad losses to sub 100 rpi teams and their scheudle was soft. they are definitely on the bubble imo. we'll see what happens tonight.

[Bdolan33]

In their last matchup, Gonzaga won by---wait for it--- 5. Duh.

[Frisco]

In their last matchup, Gonzaga won by---wait for it--- 5. Duh.

Hey bozo, you sure about that?

[jamt31]

Why even bet the line, Zags should win, just bet the ML.

[Frisco]

Why even bet the line, Zags should win, just bet the ML.

Thinking I'll do this live. St. Mary's should be in it for a while and might be able to catch Zags at around even $$ at some point.