Bet Virginia, Oregon, and Wisconsin and they all happened to have their worst games of the year.
Crate Mayne
SBR Wise Guy
01-19-13
655
#2
I hear ya man, so many dogs winning past couple days.... Reloaded my account yesterday, knew I shoulda just put it in the stock market instead
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#3
Pepperdine +4.5 is my only hope to get any money back tonight.
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Crate Mayne
SBR Wise Guy
01-19-13
655
#4
I took SD ML, so I'll hope you cash as long as SD gets the win.... Prolly a damn trap game though, SD spread should be higher
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#5
Stop betting ranked road teams
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#6
Didn't bet based on their rankings. Just happened to be the way it worked out tonight.
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#7
Okay. Wasn't trying to be a dick or anything btw
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#8
Last night I hit on Villanova and WSU....don't know what I was thinking tonight.
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hughesn2
SBR High Roller
01-14-13
229
#9
You picked Wisconsin to be within 4 pts at the Breslin??? Maybe it is b/c I am a Spartan but no way I would take any team but Indiana by 3 or more at MSU. Last night I had two $10 simple 10 team ML parlays...each one of them was a loss only b/c of Miami losing and I just added Miami's +1,000 just to make it 10 teams. Those two $10 bets could have profited me a total of $180 had Miami just won. The day before same thing happened b/c Indiana lost. Day before that had a 5 team NBA spread parlay and only loss was when Cleveland blew a 22pt lead where I had it at +3.5 and they fouled with 0.7 sec remaining in the game to make it a 5pt loss. And today lost two 10 team parlays (both around the +1,200 range) b/c NW loses to PSU
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#10
Had Wiscy +5.5. Figured the game would come down to last couple of possessions. I seem to always be one game off on those parlays, too. Sucks.
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hughesn2
SBR High Roller
01-14-13
229
#11
Originally posted by Drew0585
Last night I hit on Villanova and WSU....don't know what I was thinking tonight.
Those won b/c those two teams were AT HOME!!!! You picked three ranked AWAY teams. Last away game Oregon played they could only win by 2 on the road in OT over a crap Washington State team that got lucky last night.
-Virginia had lost their last 3 away games and 5 of their 6 ACC away games and FSU had won their prev. 2 home games.
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#12
Originally posted by hughesn2
Those won b/c those two teams were AT HOME!!!! You picked three ranked AWAY teams. Last away game Oregon played they could only win by 2 on the road in OT over a crap Washington State team that got lucky last night.
-Virginia had lost their last 3 away games and 5 of their 6 ACC away games and FSU had won their prev. 2 home games.
Not to mention VA laying 4 on the road.
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#13
Virginia was in a must win game vs a shit FSU team that really had nothing to play for. I was tailing someone on the Oregon game...obviously regretting it now.
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#14
Originally posted by Drew0585
Virginia was in a must win game vs a shit FSU team that really had nothing to play for. I was tailing someone on the Oregon game...obviously regretting it now.
That 'nothing to play for' thing is never true. They have pride too and enjoy spoiling an opponents tourney chances at home to end the season
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#15
Compared to playing for a spot to compete for the national championship, I'd say they didn't have much to play for. They may have pride, but should not have been near as motivated as Virginia. Also taking into account that FSU has been garbage all year.
Had them at -2.5
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#16
Backing road ACC teams is risky as all hell. Huge NC State fan but I refuse to bet them on the road even against the worst teams.
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#17
I had watched Virginia play a few times earlier this year and they looked very solid. I knew they weren't good on the road, but I figured they would still cover considering the fact that they were the better team and were trying to play their way into the tournament.
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#18
Originally posted by Drew0585
I had watched Virginia play a few times earlier this year and they looked very solid. I knew they weren't good on the road, but I figured they would still cover considering the fact that they were the better team and were trying to play their way into the tournament.
I understand why you took them. FSU is sh*t this year but I just never bought into taking a team b/c they have more to gain or the other team has nothing to play for.
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hughesn2
SBR High Roller
01-14-13
229
#19
Originally posted by Frisco
Backing road ACC teams is risky as all hell. Huge NC State fan but I refuse to bet them on the road even against the worst teams.
WHAT HE SAID!!! ^^^^
ACC, Big East, and Big Ten Top 25 road games are near impossible to cap over the last month. Just look at UM, they deserved to lose last night to Purdue, they won by 5 but that was a 1pt game the entire game. So far this year the SU record of ranked teams at home (since January 19th) is 162-33...and 14 of those 33 losses were to a ranked opponent at that time. In the last 7 weeks, 84% of the time a ranked team wins at home. And I bet the road winning % is in the 60s, and when playing a non-ranked team a ranked team is 138-19 (89%!!!!) since January 19th.
This is why assuming a 2 to 4pt win is much easier to gamble on when at home than when on the road
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hughesn2
SBR High Roller
01-14-13
229
#20
Originally posted by Drew0585
I had watched Virginia play a few times earlier this year and they looked very solid. I knew they weren't good on the road, but I figured they would still cover considering the fact that they were the better team and were trying to play their way into the tournament.
And you probably only watched Virginia on ESPN when the game was AT VIRGINIA. everybody though NC State was a amazing b/c they beat Duke at home, NC State has been seen to suck on the road. I lost money b/c I thought NC State would beat Maryland on the road after they beat Duke.
Also, Virginia is one of the top teams in the entire nation when looking at ATS at home with a 13-2 ATS at home, but entering today were 4-8 ATS on the road. Michigan and Duke are two of those teams that are 12-7 or better at home ATS but are 3-7 ATS on the road.
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Frisco
SBR Hall of Famer
02-27-12
6138
#21
Originally posted by hughesn2
WHAT HE SAID!!! ^^^^
ACC, Big East, and Big Ten Top 25 road games are near impossible to cap over the last month. Just look at UM, they deserved to lose last night to Purdue, they won by 5 but that was a 1pt game the entire game. So far this year the SU record of ranked teams at home (since January 19th) is 162-33...and 14 of those 33 losses were to a ranked opponent at that time. In the last 7 weeks, 84% of the time a ranked team wins at home. And I bet the road winning % is in the 60s, and when playing a non-ranked team a ranked team is 138-19 (89%!!!!) since January 19th.
This is why assuming a 2 to 4pt win is much easier to gamble on when at home than when on the road
Just like UM, Marquette barely squeaked out a 6 pt win against Rutgers the night before. Either didn't cover or pushed depending on the line but had no business even pushing after trailing all game.
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#22
I UNDERSTAND how difficult it is to play conference games on the road. I simply thought I had a good read on these two teams.
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hughesn2
SBR High Roller
01-14-13
229
#23
Try having FOUR straight days of 10 team ML parlays (and one 5 team spread parlay) that each would pay out $150 on a simple $10 bet to have each of them be lost by a team that I thought had a for sure chance at winning.
Mon: Cleveland Cavs (at +3.5) blew a 22pt lead and with 0.8sec left being down by 3 they fouled the Knicks to make it a 5pt loss. 5 team spread parlay that would paid out +1,200 failed b/c a team choked
Tues: Indiana (ML) after winning by 13 AT Ohio State earlier in the year I thought they'd win. Nope. 10 team parlay at +1,400 missed out because Indiana choked at home.
Wed: Miami (ML) blows a 13pt halftime lead to lose at home to an unranked GT team on a game winning bucket, missed out on a +1,100 parlay.
Tonight: Northwestern hands PSU their second win and first road B1G win. I expected this to be a for sure game, missed out on a +1,340 and a +1,100 10tm parlay. Just my luck I get the simple +500 6tm parlay but not the +1000s ones.
Last 4 nights in just in just 5 simple bets (total of $30 placed) just 4 losses has cost my bankroll an extra $450 b/c 4 teams that seemed as being guarantee wins at the beginning or at least at halftime of their game. You wanna talk about a crap night, I have had a crap week in one loss out of 10 to lose it all!!!!
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Drew0585
SBR Sharp
12-29-09
440
#24
Just like it's not smart to bet Virginia on the road, it's probably not smart to bet 10 team parlays.
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hughesn2
SBR High Roller
01-14-13
229
#25
Yeah but when you place $5 to win $80 why not???? 3 of the 4 are just 10 team ML parlays. I feel as if it is a good calculated risk to pick 10 teams that are either playing crap teams or a good home team. I don't place away teams in my ML parlays