Picks with short reasonings

RPK2004 · 03-07-13, 01:12 AM

Thursday 3\7
Florida St.\Virginia UNDER 125
Can't remember the last time these two teams combined for this many. Virginia goes at a crawling pace on the road and FSU no prize offensively either. Snoozer of a game, lets hope.

UMASS -1
I HATE going against Butler as a dog. They're like the K St of football: Not tons of talent, but they're they have EXCELLENT coaches and know how to win. But Butler this past month has been shaky at best, especially on the road. They run into a hot Umass team who, if they can score and shoot well can put a stamp on a good season knocking off the Bulldogs here.

TEXAS ARLINGTON +12.5
Denver has been a real money maker lately at home ( and on the road), but Arlington can play and score and seem to do both better away from home. They're starting to peak at the right time and I think Denver might be peaking ahead, which I'm hoping might cost them the DD cover.

COLORADO -3
My favorite play of the day. Colorado is 7-0 ATS last 7 home finales and on top of that is a home favorite vs a Top 25 team (I think UO is, but who cares) which anybody who pays any attention knows that's a nice trend. In regards to the actual game, which is where it counts, both teams are a scary bet, but Buffs play good at home and Oregon pretty shaky on the road. Ducks also seem to have something wrong on offense lately, which they're probably going to need tomorrow. Buffs roll...I hope.

Lastly I'm going to take Drake -2 for the early line movement and no other reason at all, although I haven't grasped the MVC as well as I'd like.

GOOD LUCK!

RPK2004 · 03-07-13, 01:15 AM

And check that.....Those are obviously for THURSDAY not Wednesday. Long week

Poison-Nut · 03-07-13, 01:54 AM

RPK nice hits, 5-0 with 1 push. That's nice.

I'm going to tail you on Thurs picks. Hope we can get the same results.

Keep up the good work.

Nomadik · 03-07-13, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by RPK2004

Thursday 3\7
Florida St.\Virginia UNDER 125
Can't remember the last time these two teams combined for this many. Virginia goes at a crawling pace on the road and FSU no prize offensively either. Snoozer of a game, lets hope.

UMASS -1
I HATE going against Butler as a dog. They're like the K St of football: Not tons of talent, but they're they have EXCELLENT coaches and know how to win. But Butler this past month has been shaky at best, especially on the road. They run into a hot Umass team who, if they can score and shoot well can put a stamp on a good season knocking off the Bulldogs here.

TEXAS ARLINGTON +12.5
Denver has been a real money maker lately at home ( and on the road), but Arlington can play and score and seem to do both better away from home. They're starting to peak at the right time and I think Denver might be peaking ahead, which I'm hoping might cost them the DD cover.

COLORADO -3
My favorite play of the day. Colorado is 7-0 ATS last 7 home finales and on top of that is a home favorite vs a Top 25 team (I think UO is, but who cares) which anybody who pays any attention knows that's a nice trend. In regards to the actual game, which is where it counts, both teams are a scary bet, but Buffs play good at home and Oregon pretty shaky on the road. Ducks also seem to have something wrong on offense lately, which they're probably going to need tomorrow. Buffs roll...~~I hope.~~

Lastly I'm going to take Drake -2 for the early line movement and no other reason at all, although I haven't grasped the MVC as well as I'd like.

GOOD LUCK!

I like where your head is at. And the Buffs will roll. #buffstape #RollTad

drfunkmaster · 03-07-13, 02:57 AM

good luck

RPK2004 · 03-07-13, 08:45 PM

FRIDAY 3/8

Going to go extremely light on Friday, because the card sucks and I'm already ready for Saturday. But, I'm going to throw in one parlay and call it a day, and hopefully have a little extra on Saturday

Rutgers +3.5
The dog in this series has been an absolute beast, covering the last 6 ATS. Even though Rutgers is garbage on the road, I feel this one in my bones.

UNC Greensboro -2
Greensboro won 6 in a row ATS against Chatt., including 2 SU wins this year. I really am weary of betting a team to beat another for a third time in one season, as that always seems like a tough thing to do, but I'm not going to get in the way of a good streak with another short line.

Penn +4
Ivy League BBall gives me nightmares. With that being said, Brown is Penn's bitch, even if Brown is a better team this year. With Penn getting points here, I think they win SU.

Akron/Kent St. Under 139.5
I wouldn't call either team's defense "underrated", but they are better than perceived in my opinion. Not to mention I have a feeling everyone and their mom will be on the Over here, and with it being on ESPN2 (I think), I'll go against the public (again, I'm hoping) and cash this.

Like I said, I'm parlaying these picks, as I wouldn't want to go 1-3 with such a crap card, so if I lose I'll deal and move on to Saturday.

Good Luck!

RPK2004 · 03-07-13, 11:23 PM

Going to make one straight play for Friday Akron\Kent under 139. Had a lean to this side before, but Akron PG busted dealing weed I like this more.

RPK2004 · 03-08-13, 10:26 PM

SATURDAY 3/9
On a real hot streak lately and I think I found some nice plays for Sat.

PURDUE +2.5
This is practically a fade against Minnesota on the road. I don't care how inconsistent Purdue is, the one consistent thing in the Big 10 this year is that Minny blows on the road. Purdue has shown some heart lately and I'll always side with that. Couldn't a lay cent with gophers laying points here.

Dayton -1
Not a big fan of going against the home team here, or betting Dayton on the road, but after the Flyers have won 3 straight, they get a GW team who has thrown in the towel and have lost 7 straight ATS. Dayton would finish .500 in a tough A 10 with a win and 4 straight heading into the conf. tourney. I like Dayton.

Marquette -7.5
Risky play here, but Marquette has been good to me lately as I grabbed the opening 5.5 vs. Rutgers and stole one. I wasn't so lucky here because the line opened at 5.5 and missed the best of it. This is it for Marquette, at game time they'll know whether or not G'Town won or lost and L'Ville will go right after them to see who wins the Big East. They face a St. Johns team who put up a fight against Providence in their first game without Harrison, but got blown out in the second half at Notre Dame and now come limping home and will be without Pointer after throwing a punch late in the game vs the Irish. You could see the team unraveling before your eyes. So there's one less cog in the breaking wheel that is St. Johns and they see a team looking for blood. Buzz Williams should have his team ready to break out of their offensive slump and put the storm out of their misery and use this as a nice tune up for playing in the Garden next week.

Tennessee +1
Both teams fighting for byes in the SEC tourney, but if the Vols want any shot of sniffing the NCAA tournament, they'll need to win here and make a deep run in the conf. tourney. Mizziu has won 3 in a row, but 2 were at home and the road win was against cupcake SC. Tennessee been playing hot and I'm not convinced Mizzou is over their road woes. Its almost the same as the Minnesota game above. Its a classic choke spot for the Tigers and Mizzou has no business being a favorite here.

Tulsa -6.5
Tulsa has won the last 8 SU and the last 6 ATS. Tulsa's been a hard team to get a read on. Inconsistency has either had me stay away from them or go against them, but Rice is one of the worst teams I've seen all year and after losing their last 4 ATS @ home, it looks like they're ready to pack it in and take a short trip down to South Padre for spring break. Take this for what its worth, but Rice is also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home finales. Love Danny Manning's Golden Hurricanes big.

9-2-1 the last 3 days also hitting my 4 team parlay tonight. Feel pretty good about these picks for Sat.

Good luck to everyone!

Poison-Nut · 03-10-13, 04:47 AM

RPK We should have had that Dayton game, BS at the end. Besides that and Marquette, you are on fire man. Keep it up. I like your work.

RPK2004 · 03-11-13, 11:01 PM

TUESDAY 3/11

USF (pk)
USF went through a pretty rough patch through Feb getting blown out damn near every game. They have now won 2 of 3 and very well could have upset Cincy Saturday. The bulls were on the bubble last year when they entered the Big East tourney and they had a couple Jrs. and Soph (Redd, Poland, and Collins) step up and get a win vs Nova and took ND to OT, only to lose, but securing a spot in the dance. Now those kids that stepped up last year are Srs and Jrs, but they've got no shot at a tourney bid and see the end is near. Seton Hall was in a similar position to USF last year going into B East tourn, probably needing to win a few games. They did blow out Providence, but lost to Lville the next day and were NIT bound. That team was led by Seniors Theodore and Pope, with Cosby the only real threat returning from that team. If it wasn't for a late collapse by Nova a few weeks ago, Hall would have lost last 12 SU and 16 of last 18. These 2 have never met twice in the same season, and I expect for USF to come out with a real purpose here and get one last win. These two teams also seem to trade SU wins, which doesn't mean jack, but its the Bulls turn in the win column, so that can't hurt.

NEVADA +3
Tough 3 weeks for Nevada, facing a brutal schedule. They haven't threatened to win a game for a while, but Wyoming hasn't faced an easy schedule by any means. The difference between these two lately seems to be the production of their star players. Leonard Washington, the player who has hurt Nevada in both of Wyos wins over the pack this year, has been virtually non-existent recently. On the flip side, Nevada's backcourt of Malik Story and Burton have been lighting it up, relatively speaking for Nevada. I hate Wyoming as a favorite and I love Nevada getting points here in the first winnable game they've been involved in for a while. Wish I could grab another point or 2, but after beating the pack twice already, they won't match Nevada's intensity. Enough to warrant a small play on.

GOOD LUCK!

Frisco · 03-11-13, 11:06 PM

Really like the Bulls tmrw. On opposite of Nevada but not sold on it. It's a tourney played in Vegas and Wyoming should be heavily bet by the public so we'll see

RPK2004 · 03-11-13, 11:17 PM

I hear ya, I'm going to wait and see which way the line moves on that Nev game, but got a feeling that one goes to the wire. Got lucky and grabbed USF when it came out at + 1.5, but agree I like em straight up too.

Poison-Nut · 03-12-13, 01:18 AM

With you RPK. Let's make some money.

SASH · 03-12-13, 04:55 AM

I have the exact same rationale for wanting to take USF tomorrow, exact. Havent placed the wager yet, but after researching this game strong USF lean. Not a huge wager, but as of right now its USF or nothing for me

Poison-Nut · 03-12-13, 05:27 AM

Originally posted by SASH

I have the exact same rationale for wanting to take USF tomorrow, exact. Havent placed the wager yet, but after researching this game strong USF lean. Not a huge wager, but as of right now its USF or nothing for me

Love the Avatar Sash. I was always a Wally Backman fan. 86 you had Dykstra, Mitchell, and Strawberry, Wally, Keith Hernandez, Ray Knight, Gary Carter, Rafael Santana. What a sick team.

Poison-Nut · 03-12-13, 11:07 PM

Rough day today. That's ok get em tomorrow.

SASH · 03-12-13, 11:54 PM

Thanks Poison, great team that 86 Mets team, bunch of nuts. I was at alot of games that year. Dont forget about HoJo, Tim Teufel and the Teuful Shuffle, George Foster, Doug Sisk, Sid Fernandez (the used to hang pineapples instead of K's for his strikeout count at games), Ron Darling, Mookie. Great squad

RPK2004 · 03-13-13, 05:14 PM

WEDNESDAY 3/13
Don't have time for a detailed write-up today or tomorrow, but I'll get what I can in here...Tough losses yesterday, especially that USF game. I'm glad I didn't see the end. Would have been a lucky back door cover last night with Nevada, but they let it get too far away early in the 2nd and were sunk.

TEXAS TECH +8.5
Too many points to lay with an offensively challenged WV team. Tech has been improving on offense and playing better lately (with the exception of the KU game) and WV, well, has not. Neither team is any good and in a game like that, I expect the dog to make this one close against a Mountaineers team who has NOBODY averaging in double figures and could be a live dog here.

Washington St. +2.5
Cougars found new life lately and they are playing a rival who has beat them twice already this year in two tight games. You can see the recent improvement in the Cougs as they lost back-to-back games vs. UCLA and USC in early Feb., only to come back last week and beat both of them (@home). Washington St. will have arguably the best player on the court in Motum, who has been on fire, and this line is strange to me, but the movement is favor of this play here.

Good luck!

ljohnso8 · 03-14-13, 01:46 AM

hey good picks today what is your overall record?

RPK2004 · 03-14-13, 01:58 AM

THURSDAY 3\14
ILLINOIS +2
For some reason I have something against Minnesota this year. I just hate the way they play and anytime they're away from home (neutral court or not) and a favorite, I'll take that opportunity to fade them. Illinois has had a decent season, some might say a little disappointing. I love them right now. With senior leaders Brandon Paul and D J Richardson, with solid PG play from Abrams, they know how to win with a tournament mentality. They're built like a dangerous tourney team if they get hot, and I fully expect Paul to step up big time, and I'll take the Illini with the better backcourt in this early tip game.

UMASS -2.5
I don't understand this line and that scares me, but I can't resist. GW did pull out a season finale win, which may have given them confidence coming into this game. They have actually lost 8 in a row ATS against the closing number and have not proven they deserve this short line. Umass has proven they can compete and win against quality teams, home and away, but have also looked a little shaky lately. Line movement on this game compared with the early money has me a little skittish, but I missed the best of the Dayton number against GW and it cost me. I don't think that will matter in this one. I'm pulling the trigger with the Minutemen.

drfunkmaster · 03-14-13, 02:06 AM

good luck

RPK2004 · 03-14-13, 02:08 AM

13-7-1 updated record since starting the thread about 8 days ago (unless you count the three wins from the Friday parlay, which I gladly will, it's 16-7-1). Lucky comeback with Wazzou tonight, but after a few times betting the opening number and getting beat by the hook, I'll take em any way I can get em. In the end, they all even out, unless you're hitting that extra 2.5%

Poison-Nut · 03-14-13, 06:42 AM

Nice 2-0. That's the way to do it RPK. Keep it up.

RPK2004 · 03-15-13, 02:35 AM

FRIDAY 3\15
I'll admit there isn't a lot of analysis in these two picks but I feel good about both.

GEORGETOWN -2
After seeing quite a bit of these two lately, it's obvious to me that Syracuse is too soft to win this game. They definitely have the talent to do it, but the bball IQ and passion doesn't seem to click, causing them to still really not know who they are as a team. Georgetown seems to be in the exact opposite position right now, playing some of their best ball of the year and they know exactly who they are and how they win. The two wins by the Hoyas already this year negatively effects the Orange in my opinion, because they just don't have any real balls to come out and put up a fight for a full 40 minutes. I think it'll be a better game than I'm hoping for, but in the end I can't see Cuse pulling it off.

IOWA ST. +6.5
Very excited to watch this game tomorrow. Should be the most exciting game of the whole day. To say the Cyclones want to win this game really bad would be a gross understatement. The fan in me is scared that ISU got all that horrible 3-point shooting out of their system today, as OU deserved that game, but Iowa St wanted it more. With all due respect for Cyclone fans, I've never seen a fan base more dejected than they were after the loss to the Hawks in Ames, and rightly so. ISU fans came down to KC in droves and although they won't match KU fans, there'll be enough to make some serious noise, which normally I wouldn't account for too much, but ISU needs that to feed off of. Big 12 race is over and the pressure is finally off KU. As dominant as they've been in the conf regular season, they've been, just ok in the Big 12 tourney. If this was any other team, this would be a great spot for KU as they're dangerous when they're loose, but there's no way they match the clones intensity. Despite not looking good today, ISUs legit and looking to stomp a mud hole in KU. I'd be shocked if this didn't come down to the last shot again. Hopefully I'm wrong here....I'll take a loss to the wallet to see Hoibergs kid cry again (classic sports moment)

GOOD LUCK!