Wednesday leans, plays, discussion thread

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  • 2daBank
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-26-09
    • 88966

    #1
    Wednesday leans, plays, discussion thread
    i like doing these when i have the chance and it went well yesterday so figured id start one up for 2marros action..been playing more totals than sides this yr and obviously not many of those to choose from overnight these days so dont have as much to start the thread off, a few leans and 1 play that i already locked in..once we get totals up i will come back and as always try to answer any questions/talk about any plays anyone wants to discuss....

    already locked in..

    Illi st -1..ill be the 1st to say betting road favs in the mvc is not a great idea, i know this (although think 2 actually covered tonight so maybe tide turning a little from the unreal run they were on).. it gets worse, illi st only beat the aces by 5 at home and now they favs at a place Evansville has only dropped 1 conf gm all season...on the bright side illi st underperformed in almost every category and still came away with the win in the 1st meeting, they have finally started looking much more like the team i expected to start the year and i think they bounce back off that disaster against the shockers last time out and get the W here....

    leans...

    minny +5.5 or ov 127...kinda tough gm and may end up staying away, both teams have had their share of struggles lately, obviously gophers even more so than osu but when i saw this line i immediately thought "take the points", after looking little more im kinda starting to make a case for the over but think i can sleep on it and if anything get better line on either possibly...

    wiscy/nw un 115..be great if this got bet up a few points as ppl seem to insist on wanting to take overs with these low totals, no clue why as it really hard to look at these teams and come up with much more than 105, maybe i should look again and typically never hurts me to wait on these so will revisit in the morning but this got everything you could ask for to get a total shitfest,,NW lives by the 3 and wiscy doesnt even allow teams to hit 30% from behind the arc, convinced neither team would take a shot ever if it wasnt for that damn shot clock , both are horrendous free throw shooting teams,, like i said if you can tell me how exactly they can crack even 110 here im all ears...

    ku/okie st un 135.5....think this has a chance to get bet up a few more points just based off how high the 1st meeting was and both teams avg in the 70s so my guess over will get some love...the 1st gm was a shootout no doubt but both teams combined to shoot 52 fts in that gm and hit a combined 5 more 3s than they avg on the season, throw in 34 offensive rebounds and there you have it they score 165 on a 129 total which if anything i think gives a little more value to this number..both teams capable of tightening the screws in this one and think we see a gm where 68-70 points takes it..if this thing ticks up and i can get a 137 or higher ill most certainly be on it....

    provo +13...they have lost 1 gm all season by more than this...makes it pretty tough to pass up the points..

    ok that all for now, im tired and that should be plenty to get ya'll going, still a ton of gms i havnt gotten to but what the point when i have to wait on the totals anyway.... be up for a few more minutes then back after all the totals get released...
  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #2
    Good to see Banker. I have the same leans with Providence and Minnesota, and I feel the same way about Illinois State -- especially after Sunday's debacle. You're the totals expert; I'll leave those to you.

    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #3
      Originally posted by No coincidences
      Good to see Banker. I have the same leans with Providence and Minnesota, and I feel the same way about Illinois State -- especially after Sunday's debacle. You're the totals expert; I'll leave those to you.

      for the sake of honesty im not gonna lie and say that shit on sunday isnt playing a part in why i immediately jumped on this one as the way i see it these bitches owe me 1!!
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        Originally posted by 2daBank
        for the sake of honesty im not gonna lie and say that shit on sunday isnt playing a part in why i immediately jumped on this one as the way i see it these bitches owe me 1!!
        I like Evansville -- especially the Ryan kid -- but if Illinois State brings their A game and plays angry instead of hung over from that loss, this should be a slam dunk.
        Comment
        • Louisvillekid1
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-17-07
          • 52143

          #5
          Illy st as you guys know was my biggest sleeper coming into this season and just when they look to be in form they fukk it up. I'm not sure about their mental state after the jump kick debacle that lead to the loss to the shockers last out. I mean that was a bracket buster type game.

          GL and love these threads...
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #6
            Originally posted by No coincidences
            I like Evansville -- especially the Ryan kid -- but if Illinois State brings their A game and plays angry instead of hung over from that loss, this should be a slam dunk.
            they certainly been a tough out, especially at home (of coarse that describes most the conf),,i would think Carmichael balls out in this one, not only cause of that play that screwed everything up sunday but simply cause evansville just doesnt have a answer for that kid...bout time this team started playing better cause they had me feeling rather stupid in thinking they were a team to watch at the start of the season....
            Comment
            • 2daBank
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-26-09
              • 88966

              #7
              Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
              Illy st as you guys know was my biggest sleeper coming into this season and just when they look to be in form they fukk it up. I'm not sure about their mental state after the jump kick debacle that lead to the loss to the shockers last out. I mean that was a bracket buster type game.

              GL and love these threads...
              i was in same boat brother, thought they would be really good and for whatever reason they were anything but for a lot of the year..honestly im pretty sure before the shocker bs they were already to the point they have to win the conf tourney, i think they shake that shit off and get back to the business of trying to secure the best seed they can for the mvc tourney...
              Comment
              • Brent13081
                SBR High Roller
                • 04-23-09
                • 166

                #8
                Don't bet on tubby and the gophers... Buckeyes will cover... Have you seen the gophers versus a basic Zone d? Lol
                Comment
                • 2daBank
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-26-09
                  • 88966

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Brent13081
                  Don't bet on tubby and the gophers... Buckeyes will cover... Have you seen the gophers versus a basic Zone d? Lol
                  have you seen osu offense? they not exactly offensive powerhouses,,,not to mention does osu even play zone? im sure they mix a little in but most the times i catch part of their gms they playing man... i may pass but for me it either take the points or nothing..
                  Comment
                  • 2daBank
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 88966

                    #10
                    CoC looks very tempting laying pretty small number to a shit western carolina team,,,CoC is a rare team that if anything doesnt drop off on road if they not just flat out better away from home..dont think western carolina has beaten a team in the top 200 all season,,just a thought..im going to bed, talk to ya'll 2marro...
                    Comment
                    • BlitzTheBooks
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 10-05-12
                      • 472

                      #11
                      Take a peak at Clev St.....Wright state without their two leading scorers, on the road with 8 days rest (chance at coming out rusty). Just a thought
                      Comment
                      • Brent13081
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 04-23-09
                        • 166

                        #12
                        Well have you seen the pathetic Gophers offense?? Brutal, they can't shoot... Soo the under looks good! And I love doin first half unders. I'm seriously 80% on first half totals and mostly lean on unders... Now the zone defense is easy to run2-3 zone.. The kids have been running it since AAU! If Thad Motta doesn't run the zone 50% of the time against the gophers there is something wrong!just watch the game film
                        Comment
                        • richierich1421
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 01-23-13
                          • 15

                          #13
                          wisconsin/northwestern under now at 117, like it?
                          Comment
                          • ridims
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-15-10
                            • 3863

                            #14
                            auburn looks intriguing. big play worthy
                            Comment
                            • hougigo
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-01-12
                              • 3665

                              #15
                              Really like JMU.
                              NE hasn't exactly been blowing people out and have been winning on the seat of their pants.
                              Doesn't seem like a bad play IMO
                              Comment
                              • Dom177
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-11-11
                                • 1080

                                #16
                                Pound NW and wiscy once it gets to 118!
                                Comment
                                • 2daBank
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-26-09
                                  • 88966

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by richierich1421
                                  wisconsin/northwestern under now at 117, like it?
                                  yea just debating on whether to hold out little longer and see if we can squeeze another point or 2 out of it? (dont think really need tho as i said i think 105 is bout right and 110 bout the ceiling) i have no idea what ppl see in some of these low numbers that makes them drive the line up? been going on all yr where i have it set lower than the opener yet thing climbs all day and more times than not they dont come close to sniffing the opener in the ones i play,, i used to play a lot at open but got sick of having a shit number even tho it hasnt hurt me, so now i just wait on these 1s with totals under 120 cause they almost always tick up some...i seriously doubt this one climbs any more but im no line expert, hell i thought uva/mia was maxed at 118.5 and it shot to 120.5 on some sights yesterday..so i guess answer is i think there plenty of value at 117 so think im gonna play it for a unit now and then if it climbs any more may add little..
                                  Comment
                                  • 2daBank
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 01-26-09
                                    • 88966

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Dom177
                                    Pound NW and wiscy once it gets to 118!
                                    you think it gets there? i feel pretty good at 117 and again have no clue why anyone pushing this line up (much like uva/mia yesterday)..
                                    Comment
                                    • Dom177
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-11-11
                                      • 1080

                                      #19
                                      I back tested a little bit the last months lowest and highest totals and even if you just blindly bet under on the lowest and over on the highest you'd come out on top. I think that's where the books make a lot of money probably. 117 is good but it's not even 12 yet and it's moved 2 pts already. It should go up a little more
                                      Comment
                                      • Frisco
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-27-12
                                        • 6138

                                        #20
                                        The Minny/OSU game looks like a degen game to bet. Really like Murray State tonight. Been fading them a lot this year but I like this spot
                                        Comment
                                        • Da Beer Guy
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 02-11-13
                                          • 393

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Dom177
                                          I back tested a little bit the last months lowest and highest totals and even if you just blindly bet under on the lowest and over on the highest you'd come out on top. I think that's where the books make a lot of money probably. 117 is good but it's not even 12 yet and it's moved 2 pts already. It should go up a little more
                                          great post. this was definitely the case last night
                                          Comment
                                          • Notsradamus
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 02-07-13
                                            • 75

                                            #22
                                            What does your card for tonight look like so far 2DaBank?
                                            Comment
                                            • Brent13081
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 04-23-09
                                              • 166

                                              #23
                                              I am with you guys on the Wisc/ Northwestern Under! I have lived in Minnesota most of my life and watch a ton of Big 10 basketball.. And these 2 teams love to run the shot clock and have mediocre offenses . perfect recipe for and under
                                              Comment
                                              • 2daBank
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-26-09
                                                • 88966

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by hougigo
                                                Really like JMU.
                                                NE hasn't exactly been blowing people out and have been winning on the seat of their pants.
                                                Doesn't seem like a bad play IMO
                                                few things worry me bout them,,bad perimeter d against a northeastern team that shoots good from behind the arc.. offensively jmu depends on getting to the charity stripe and northeastern is pretty disciplined at not committing fouls... id prob look at the ml before the spread just cause northeastern capable foul shooters so if they up late id expect them to extend the lead at the line and most jmu road losses have been by a wider margin than the 5 they catching in this one..
                                                Comment
                                                • 2daBank
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-26-09
                                                  • 88966

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Notsradamus
                                                  What does your card for tonight look like so far 2DaBank?
                                                  as of right now..

                                                  illi st-1
                                                  CoC-2.5
                                                  provo+13

                                                  still waiting on the totals and only bout halfway through entire card..
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 2daBank
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-26-09
                                                    • 88966

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Frisco
                                                    The Minny/OSU game looks like a degen game to bet. Really like Murray State tonight. Been fading them a lot this year but I like this spot
                                                    yea i could do w/o playing the minny/osu gm,,,neither in good form,,,think i still have a soft spot for minny from early in season when they looked like a solid team, fact is they turn the ball over entirely too much and as brent said they really cant shoot over a zone.. far as murry st not a big fan of a team on their 3rd consecutive road gm..
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 2daBank
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 88966

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                      as of right now..

                                                      illi st-1
                                                      CoC-2.5
                                                      provo+13

                                                      still waiting on the totals and only bout halfway through entire card..
                                                      wiscy/Nw un 117.5

                                                      sip st/bama un 121.5...bama hasnt given up more than 58 points in over a month and that the high side,,last time they faced in mississipi state scored all of 43 and not real sure it gets much better on bama's home court,,,states piss poor defense is a small concern but bama plays at such a slow pace dont think they go for more than 65ish..

                                                      still holding out on the ku/okie st total hoping it gets to 137...lean over in santa clara/zags gm, not sure why total coming down tho and prob a squarish type play seeing how it gonna be on tv but i made this considerably higher as i think santa clara will be up to give the zags a gm and that means they have to score which they more than capable of doing...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • No coincidences
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                        • 76300

                                                        #28
                                                        Do you like the St. John's/USF under?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Louisvillekid1
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-17-07
                                                          • 52143

                                                          #29
                                                          Great info as always banker!

                                                          When he posts, you'd better listen.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • 2daBank
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-26-09
                                                            • 88966

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                            Do you like the St. John's/USF under?
                                                            not really,,,if it was @ s.fla i prob would but johnies been hitting 70 pretty regularly at home of late.. figure they gonna look to run some back home tonight after being held under 60 the last 2.....dont get me wrong i dont like the over and certainly wouldnt shock me if this was some ugly ass gm played in the 50s but think the 118 is bout right..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • tto827
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 10-01-12
                                                              • 9078

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Dom177
                                                              I back tested a little bit the last months lowest and highest totals and even if you just blindly bet under on the lowest and over on the highest you'd come out on top. I think that's where the books make a lot of money probably. 117 is good but it's not even 12 yet and it's moved 2 pts already. It should go up a little more
                                                              I've always thought that would be the case. I'll never play the over on a NCAA hoops total less than 120, and NBA I'll never play the under on a total over 218 or so. The lines look to good to squares, so there has to be some built in edge there.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RavensFan2k3
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 08-18-12
                                                                • 17378

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                not really,,,if it was @ s.fla i prob would but johnies been hitting 70 pretty regularly at home of late.. figure they gonna look to run some back home tonight after being held under 60 the last 2.....dont get me wrong i dont like the over and certainly wouldnt shock me if this was some ugly ass gm played in the 50s but think the 118 is bout right..
                                                                Given what you said, you think St Johns wins this?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BiffTFinancial
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-29-09
                                                                  • 22670

                                                                  #33
                                                                  what's up Bank, good to see ya. on Providence, Cleveland State, like Minn/OSU under and Wisky/NU under. working through rest of card now. BOL tonight.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • tto827
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 10-01-12
                                                                    • 9078

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                                                    Given what you said, you think St Johns wins this?
                                                                    St. Johns definitely should win this game. But if its that ugly, scrappy type, winning by 8+.........
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • No coincidences
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                                      • 76300

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                                      sip st/bama un 121.5...bama hasnt given up more than 58 points in over a month and that the high side,,last time they faced in mississipi state scored all of 43 and not real sure it gets much better on bama's home court,,,states piss poor defense is a small concern but bama plays at such a slow pace dont think they go for more than 65ish..
                                                                      Unreal.

                                                                      What a "sharp" line, eh?
                                                                      Comment
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