What do sharps look for in picking a winner like that? Was it really a long shot that they could win this game? I'm just trying to get some insight from guys who have experience in seeing these big odds pay. I never really used to pay attention to moneylines besides their meaning of Team A should win and Team B should lose. I can pick off a +150-200 range from time to time. But to be honest, as an amateur bettor, I'm scared to death to put my money on odds like that, and would rather just take the points (kicking myself in the ass afterwards, thinking I'm a sharp). I picked Pitt tonight so I'm not trying to say I was about to take the ND money line. Lately I've been looking at these a lot, and I really want to hit one of these bitches! I dont want to force it tho. So any thoughts or insight would be greatly appreciated! BOL
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I supposed picking a game with two top 25 teams with identical records is a good place to look.Comment -
chuck dartsComment -
I should be a little more specific I suppose. Obviously they were both Top 25 teams. So the next time two Top 25's face off and one is a heavy favorite that I should go with the underdog? I cant say that would be an auto pick in the future. Why would the books offer up such big odds on a largely public pick? If that were the case (IMO) than everyone would be getting rich betting huge odd moneylines because itd be a lock. I as an amateur would be more under the perception that a team not largely backed by the public would hit more often on those big odds. No?Comment -
BINGO!
There really is no way to find those plays consistantly... IMO. You can find games that show alot of value in the spread, but to think you can find +500 and above winners on a consistant basis using a system I think it pretty far out.
As the previous guy stated, two teams in the top 25 WOULD be a good place to start. Its just a matter of catching a slumping team like ND on a hot night. I took ND +10, but I didnt think they would win the game, I figured a good spread would be between 6-8 for these 2 teams. So with that said, I dont think anyone can give a concrete answer, just finding the hot team and getting 'lucky'.Comment -
How about Pitt is kind of overrated not that Norte dame is leaps and bounds above them but that line was rediciilous for what on a neutral floor would be a toss upComment -
I think that hardest thing about betting on NCAA basketball is that it is so unpredictable and random, which is essentially why March Madness is so much fun to follow. There is really no telling when a team is or isn't going to show up.
A big reason why Pittsburgh was so favored was that Notre Dame had just come off of a terribly embarrassing loss to Providence. I feel that a lot of people see this and say to themselves, "Notre Dame can't beat Providence they sure as hell can't beat a much better Pitt team." People are short sighted man.Comment -
it was more the fact that notre dame looked god awful vs providence and had played alot of overtimes recentlyComment -
Guys lets face it both of these teams are middle of the road Big East teams. OK, they don't suck, but give me a St. Louis or a Stony Brook or a Valparaiso against either of these teams and I'm pretty tempted to bet against them. Neither is going to make any noise this year.Comment -
I look for teams in major conferences that I view to be overrated. Pitt was a perfect example tonight -- if you watch any of their games, you will not see a team that deserves to be a dd favorite, let alone ranked in the Top 25. Notre Dame isn't a world beater by any means, but they are an above average Big East team who was undervalued due to a bad last game.
When I bet these games, I bet a few units on the spread and a portion of a unit on the ML.Comment -
To be honest i have no clue. If i knew i would be a rich man.
Like a dumbass i had Pitt ML in a parlay. A truely humbling experience. Yes I know Pitt has layed some eggs at home over the past few years Notre Dame just got waxed by Providence.
Going into Saturday Ken Pom had Pittsburgh ranked #4.
Just doesnt make any sense. Usually when a 10 point dog wins like this they are home. And what is weirder is ND was down 15-3 to start the game.
And how the hell did Pitt only have 36 points with 2 minutes left in the game? most teams score that much by half time!Comment
