JC's picks

[JoshC58]

I should say I'm new to this forum but I'm not new to the ups and downs and heartaches of betting basketball. I don't have any special abilities or inside information or anything like that, and I don't really buy into following "trends", so take these picks with a grain of salt, or follow them and curse me the following day.

I will probably include NBA as well just to keep from posting on both forums.

Oklahoma +6.5

I haven't taken this yet as I was hoping it might climb to 7, and with my luck it will probably drop to 6. The stats seems to favor Iowa State, but I see OU hanging around in this game and getting a backdoor cover, losing by 4-5 points.

Siena +8

Fairfield has played 2 road games in the last 3+ weeks, losing by 11 at Iona and winning by 7 at St. Peter's. Siena's FG% has struggled, but they have been shooting really well from the FT line the past few games, and being able to shoot 75%+ in NCAAB has really become a luxury for any team. I think Siena takes an early lead, then ultimately loses steam to the more talented Fairfield squad, but they keep it within 8.

Northern Arizona +7
Dewayne Russell is coming off 2 bad shooting performances, and Gabe Rogers had a rough outing against Southern Utah. I think they both return to form tonight and Sacramento State won't be able to pull away and win by more than 2-4 points.

Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers over 176

I'll bite on this one, even though I may be a sucker for it. I am aware of the various "systems" that might lead one to think the under is the play here, and I know the Bulls are pretty banged up; however, I think the absence of Noah and Boozer in the paint will help the over more than hurt it. The officiating grew for this game have 100 games between them, 11 of which have gone under 184.5 points. There is some concern that if the game is a blowout there won't be the opportunity for late FT's and added points, but I don't see the Pacers scoring less than 95 points, so I'm counting on the Bulls to get to the low 80's.

Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz under 199.5

The Kings are finishing a 6 game road trip, are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, and have a 4 day layoff coming up. The Jazz are also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. I see the Kings licking their wounds before the upcoming time off, and while the Jazz can possibly get to 100-105 points, I don't see the Kings breaking 95. I'm hoping this one keeps creeping up.


Good luck to everyone with your plays tonight.

[JoshC58]

Adding 3 more that I will refer to as "gut-feeling" plays, which are more about how I felt when I first saw the line than any in depth analysis:

Washington Wizards 1H +1.5 vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Wizards have played 3 of their last 10 on the road, and while they aren't a good team by any stretch of the imagination, they do play much better at home, and I think they will have a lead at halftime. I'm hoping Nene and Okafor can team up to give Griffin trouble, and I'm looking for John Wall to start off hot.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves over 192.5

This total just feels too low to me, and I think it will be played at a fast-pace.

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder under 210

Dirk and Durant are both probable, and these teams went over 210 the previous 2 times they played; however, both of those games went into OT. I don't see it happening a 3rd time. It will probably be close but I think 210 is a little high.

[JoshC58]

Oklahoma +6.5: Terrible call, OU simply got run out of the building. L

Siena +8: I thought they would stay inside the number but they ended up being a basket away. L

Northern Arizona: N. Arizona really closed the game out strong and got the outright win. W

Bulls @ Pacers over 176: This one was a surprise that it got that high but I'll take it. W

King @ Jazz under 199.5: I feel pretty lucky that this game went to OT and still went under by 10 points. W

Wizards +1.5 1H: They came out pretty strong. W

Trail Blazers @ Minnesota over 192.5: It took a miracle 4Q but a win is a win. W

Mavericks @ Thunder: I was certain this one was going to end up going over, but the huge lead by OKC made the 4Q meaningless. W

YTD:

NBA: 5-0
NCAAB: 1-2

Overall: 6-2

[JoshC58]

Youngstown State -135 @ Cleveland State

I like Youngstown State to win this game, but I wouldn't take it any higher than 3. I feel that Kamren Belin and Kendrick Perry will continue their recent success and will be too much for Cleveland State to handle over 40 minutes. Look for a close game, with Youngstown State pulling away in the final minutes. I'm changing this pick to Youngstown State ML. It's not worth buying a half point to -2.

Penn State +2.5 vs. Purdue

All factors point to Purdue being the better team, and they won the previous meeting by 18 points. This is one of those picks where I feel like the line is set up to beg you to take Purdue. Penn State could get the outright win, but I will gladly take 2.5 points.

Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers over 182.5

The Hawks have broken my heart more than once this year, and I am probably walking into a trap on this total, but I think too much stock is being placed in some of the Hawks' low scoring games this year. I think both teams get into the 90's.

Ohio State @ Michigan over 131.5

These teams both stayed in the 50's in their previous meeting, but the Wolverines shot 38% from the field, and 30% from beyond the arc. They will improve on both of those percentages at home, even against a tough defensive team in Ohio State. Ohio State will want to slow the tempo, but I think they will get caught up in the big game atmosphere and you will see a lot of fast paced play.

Houston Rockets -1.5 1H vs. Golden State Warriors

The Rockets love to play a great 2Q to take a nice lead, only to give it right back in the 3Q, so I don't trust them to cover the 3.5 for the game. But, the Rockets are well rested and even with the injuries to Delfino and Lin (he will probably play), I'm looking for Harden to live at the FT line and take a 3-6 point lead into halftime.

DISCLAIMER: I had a good night with my NBA picks last night, so the law of averages will probably put me in my place tonight.

[enflip27]

Though the line is small on PSU, I think it begs more for people to take PSU, due to your reasoning.

I also like the Warriors to take the first half.

[JoshC58]

You very well could be right. It's hard not to delve into it too deeply and wonder is this line "reverse psychology" or "reverse-reverse psychology", or "double-reverse sideways through the loop and around the tree psychology". I've had decent luck betting against the lines that seemed too good to be true, which is why I feel like Penn State might be the play, but I've made plays similar to this before and then kicked myself when the better team absolutely dominated and covered the spread by 20+. We shall see.

I actually think the Warriors might win the game outright, but I've watched a lot of Rockets games this year, and when they are playing at home they always seem to hit an extra gear in the 2Q.

I guess we will be on opposite sides tonight, but what fun would it be if we all agreed? Good luck on the rest of your plays tonight.

[enflip27]

True. Penn State has a chance, but I see Purdue in a blowout.

The Rockets are scary in the 2Q, but Bogut's inside presence could be key to tonight's first half.

Good luck!

[JoshC58]

Adding:

Florida Gators @ Arkansas Razorbacks 1H under 66

[JoshC58]

YTD:

NBA: 7-0
NCAAB: 2-5 (maybe I'm not suited for the college game)

Overall: 9-5

[JoshC58]

I had jury duty today and tons of work to catch up on, so I won't be including any analysis, maybe some of you would prefer it that way anyway!

New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards over 191

Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks over 182.5

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Hornets under 194.5

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timber Wolves under 198.5

Providence +5 vs. Cincinnati

Iowa +9 @ Wisconsin

Stanford +11 @ Arizona

LSU -5.5 vs. Vanderbilt

[JoshC58]

New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards over 191--W

Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks over 182.5--W

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Hornets under 194.5--W

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timber Wolves under 198.5--W

Providence +5 vs. Cincinnati--W

Iowa +9 @ Wisconsin--W

Stanford +11 @ Arizona--W

LSU -5.5 vs. Vanderbilt--L

[JoshC58]

Wednesday 2/6/2013

NBA: 4-0
NCAAB: 3-1

Overall: 7-1

YTD:

NBA: 11-0
NCAAB: 5-6

Overall: 16-6

[JoshC58]

Unfortunately I don't like anything in NBA tonight, and that is really where I feel stronger about my ability to pick games. I'm going with some totals in NCAAB tonight based on a new system/formula I am working on. As you can see from my record, NCAAB is not my strong suit, so these plays are more about testing something new.

Play these at your own risk:

Clemson @ Virginia over 113

Old Dominion @ Drexel over 123.5

Indiana @ Illinois under 147.5

Missouri @ Texas A&M over 129.5

Washington @ UCLA under 148

Colorado @ Oregon under 136.5

St. Mary's @ Santa Clara over 145

[JoshC58]

Adding:

Clemson +8 @ Virginia

I think Virginia wins, but I don't see them running away from Clemson and Clemson gets it to 4-6 points at the end.

[JoshC58]

Clemson @ Virginia over 113--W

Old Dominion @ Drexel over 123.5--W

Indiana @ Illinois under 147.5--W

Missouri @ Texas A&M over 129.5--W

Washington @ UCLA under 148--W

Colorado @ Oregon under 136.5--W

St. Mary's @ Santa Clara over 145--PENDING

Clemson +8 @ Virginia--L

[JoshC58]

Thursday 2/7/2013

NBA: No picks
NCAAB: 6-1, 1 pending

Overall: 6-1, 1 pending

YTD:

NBA: 11-0
NCAAB: 11-7, 1 pending

Overall: 22-7, 1 pending

[JoshC58]

Clemson @ Virginia over 113--W

Old Dominion @ Drexel over 123.5--W

Indiana @ Illinois under 147.5--W

Missouri @ Texas A&M over 129.5--W

Washington @ UCLA under 148--W

Colorado @ Oregon under 136.5--W

St. Mary's @ Santa Clara over 145--W

Clemson +8 @ Virginia--L

[JoshC58]

Thursday 2/7/2013

NBA: No picks
NCAAB: 7-1

Overall: 7-1

YTD:

NBA: 11-0
NCAAB: 12-7

Overall: 23-7

[lazylover]

Great job, keep smashing em.

[JoshC58]

Thanks man. It's worked so far but it won't keep up that pace, it never does. It's a work in progress right now and I'm still playing with some of the factors and formulas. I'm trying to be thorough without getting TOO complicated. In all truth based on the way averages always end up playing out, I may be fade material tomorrow.

[lazylover]

Your right. Ups and downs. I think as long as your selective, disciplined, and patient, you can do well. It is difficult for me to apply those methods. Anyway, I am trying to nail down two games that will work tmro. Just looking off-hand, what do you think of New-Orleans +4.5, Cleveland -6.5, GSW+3, and OKC-12 for tmros card?

[JoshC58]

I'm about to crash for the night so I will look in depth more tomorrow. Off the top of my head I can tell you I hate betting anything in Hawks games, they are so inconsistent it drives me crazy. They have the talent to blow someone out and they will turn around a lay an egg in the next game.

The GSW +3 intrigues me a little because of the matchups. I'm not sure on OKC and Cavs without looking at them more, will check them out in the morning.

[lazylover]

Yeah, time for bed. I will check back tmro, thanks.

[tto827]

Thursday 2/7/2013

NBA: No picks
NCAAB: 7-1

Overall: 7-1

YTD:

NBA: 11-0
NCAAB: 12-7

Overall: 23-7

Great job so far. Hope you can stay hot

[JoshC58]

Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards over 186

Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz over 184.5

Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers over 188.5

[JoshC58]

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers under 197

I'm going to go ahead and grab this one, but I could see this number climbing a little throughout the day.

[lazylover]

Which one you feel most confident in? Also, what are your thoughts on NCAAB, Utah St-6

[JoshC58]

Which one you feel most confident in? Also, what are your thoughts on NCAAB, Utah St-6

Probably the over in the Nets/Wizards. But I would hate for that to be the one game you add to your parlay and it lose and the other 3 games I picked end up winning. That would be a good day for me, while you would probably want to kick my ass. That's why I stick to straight bets, if I go 2-2 in these games it's acceptable to me.

As for Utah State -6, I haven't followed them much but I know they have been inconsistent. I will look into it a little more.

You mentioned you needed a 2 team parlay, do you absolutely need it for tonight for $ reasons?

[lazylover]

Basically, yes. I would not hold any ill-will as the final decision would be mine, of course. However, I do value input from anyone who is running hot.

[lazylover]

Maybe cleve and houst? Cleve has been playing well and Orlando has many injuries. Houston also playing well and Portland start slow but finish strong, if houston doesnt step of gas it could work.

Or Goldenstate and San Antonio?

Who knows......

[JoshC58]

I live in Houston, and you are right, the Rockets have been playing well, especially at home. 7-8 is kind of a big number though. The Rockets have this tendency to play a good 1Q, kill it in the 2Q, then come back to earth in the 2H. If you look at their games this season they have been very strong in the 2Q.

I don't consistently bet the sides in NBA games because at the end of the day, every player on the court is one of the top 500 players in the world, one guy getting hot for the underdog can take a game over and even if the favorite wins, I hate laying points.

I originally liked the Warriors but I don't like J. Jack being out, he is a consistent scorer and not having him will hurt. As for the Spurs, if Duncan and Ginobili are out again, I actually may look at taking the Pistons, especially if it is +6 or higher.

I don't want to try to talk you out of parlays, but I just want to offer this example. I'm going to use $100 increments to make the math easy. Let's say you have $400 dollars you are willing to risk on any given day. There are four games you want to bet each day for 5 days (A, B, C, D). You could risk $200 on a parlay of A/B, and $200 on a parlay of C/D. Let's assume you do that, and on day 1 bet D loses; on day 2 all bets win; on day 3 bet B and bet C lose; on day 4 bet A and bet D lose; and on day 5 bet A loses. That's 70% for the week and you are up $880 when it's all said and done.

If you made the same bets, but bet $100 on A, B, C, D, and the same bets won and lost on days 1-5, you would be up $740.

Now, we assumed that day 2 was a perfect day, but if you had lost just ONE bet out of the 4 that day, with the parlay method your $880 becomes $160, with the straight bet method your $740 becomes $530.

Believe me man, I used to parlay everything every night, thinking I can risk so much less and all I have to do is hit ONE for the big payoff. If you absolutely NEED the money to pay for something essential, I suppose a 2 teamer is your best bet in the short-run.

[lazylover]

makes sense. I will just fire a two teamer, WIZ over and Cleve under.

[JoshC58]

makes sense. I will just fire a two teamer, WIZ over and Cleve under.

I hope it works out for you man. There are a lot of NBA games tonight so there may be a good bet out there on the side, I just don't feel like I'm that strong in betting the side unless I am taking a dog. If I had to pick one right now, I would take the Pistons +6 and hope that Ginobili and Duncan, who are both doubtful, do not miraculously suit up for the game.

[lazylover]

Yeah, honestly, I was down to my last 200 for the week and did not want to end the week in a sour way.

I will try that 4x5 system next week. For this week I'm all in, which usually does not turn out well....
I ended up doing a bunch of crazy huge parlays hahahaha.

I have one 3 teamer which includes your WIZ over pick, and cleve-6.5, and Rockets-4 first half. I know 6.5 is huge for cleve but who knows, no risk no champagne......

[JoshC58]

That's what makes it fun. As long as you can afford to lose the amount you are betting then the losses are just bumps in the road. As for the 4x5 system, that was just an example, I don't bet the same amount of games each day for 5 days in a row or anything, I was just using it to show how the parlays can screw you. I usually place anywhere from 3-8 straight wagers on an given day and hope for a 2-1 ratio.

If you are going to bet 3+ team parlays, sometimes it's worth having one of the games that starts after the other 2 are completed, that way you can at least hedge it, and in some rare occasions you can get a good 2H line where you can win both ways. I'm not saying I think it's a good idea, but it's better than nothing.