Thurs, Dec 4 Dogs that should be Favs, YTD 112-89 +7,500 units

[curious]

The spreadsheet is driving me out of my mind. YTD should be 122-94 +9,200 units

I will post the full card including unit sizes and favs later today.

As always bet dogs on the moneyline and bet 2X on the spread to hedge the moneyline bet.

Youngstown St. +3
Buffalo +15
Southern California +9
Kent St. +3
Butler +3 1/2
Detroit +5
UCLA +6
Oklahoma St. +5
Citadel +8
Murray St. +1
Denver +9

[bigguyz]

i see none of those teams covering at all

[curious]

i see none of those teams covering at all

Then you don't have to play them.

[kipper32]

i see none of those teams covering at all

You should probably fade all the picks then and see who wins.

[bigguyz]

i no, the ones i would take would be kent st, butler, detriot and ok st.

[TPowell]

why should UCLA be favored against Texas and why should USC be favored against Oklahoma? Everything else looks fine, but I dont get that

[Dbldown11]

buffalo should be favored over UCONN???

[Lout84]

Let's wait until we see his spreadsheet. Usually that is much more definitive.

[curious]

[Husker36]

why should UCLA be favored against Texas and why should USC be favored against Oklahoma? Everything else looks fine, but I dont get that

Ofcoarse Texas should be the fav over pretty much ANYONE at home. Not to speak for Curious but I'm pretty sure what he's saying is that according to his calculations USC will win..... and since they are getting points that makes it a play.

My first reaction was to take Oklahoma...... but since Curious is the best handicapper on this site I took a look at it again. Oklahoma beat Davidson W 82-78 at home and Gardner-Webb W 80-76. Not that impressive. I think Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 but the Big 12 is down this year. USC lost to Missouri 72-83. Tough call on this one.....

Keep up the good work Curious!!

[curious]

Ofcoarse Texas should be the fav over pretty much ANYONE at home. Not to speak for Curious but I'm pretty sure what he's saying is that according to his calculations USC will win..... and since they are getting points that makes it a play.

My first reaction was to take Oklahoma...... but since Curious is the best handicapper on this site I took a look at it again. Oklahoma beat Davidson W 82-78 at home and Gardner-Webb W 80-76. Not that impressive. I think Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 but the Big 12 is down this year. USC lost to Missouri 72-83. Tough call on this one.....

Keep up the good work Curious!!

No, no, no, I am not the best handicapper on the site. Thanks for the complement though.

When I say a team should be a fav but are a dog instead what I mean by that is that my prediction model showed that the dog will win the game straight up which means that they should be giving points to the other team, not getting points. Since they are getting points, then I have an edge. Doesn't always work but my big dog money line plays are > 50% this year straight up and >70% ATS. Since I hedge the moneyline play with a 2X bet on the spread that is why I am up over 9,000 units even though the win loss ratio is not that impressive.

[Husker36]

buffalo should be favored over UCONN???

Ofcoarse not. But according to his calculations they have a good shot to win at home. So take them points! Just like he predicted in the Penn St/Georgia Tech game last night.

[Snevens88]

dont listen to these guys curious. that list looks primed and proper ready for some solid opportunities. much appreciated. gl

[Husker36]

Well IMO you are the best handicapper on this site. I'm not a big time bettor and I usually don't mess with basketball. I had $300 in my account and then I saw your post on Monday. I won a 9 team parlay on Monday and followed your picks Tues and Wed and now I have over $7k in my account! I am following your picks everyday until it changes. I don't know what system you use or how you calculate who is going to win but I'm impressed. Thanks for sharing your picks with us and keep up the good work!!

[curious]

Ofcoarse not. But according to his calculations they have a good shot to win at home. So take them points! Just like he predicted in the Penn St/Georgia Tech game last night.

And the Rutgers, TCU, Wyoming, Miami OH, Richmond, South Florida and Akron games. LOL

[TPowell]

Oklahoma also beat teams like Purdue and Davidson on a neutral court which is more than USC can say. I've already pounded Oklahoma -8

[Kingctb27]

Oklahoma also beat teams like Purdue and Davidson on a neutral court which is more than USC can say. I've already pounded Oklahoma -8

Same goes here. Looks like we have both beaten the closing #, so it's already a win in my book.

[BrandonLaz]

I don't agree with all the plays here, but if you have a system that has been working stick with it. I personally don't like playing that much money on different games and like to just pick a few that I feel confident on to play. I am against you tonight on 2 of the plays with UConn -15.5 and Oklahoma -8. That isn't saying much since I have started horrible so far in College Basketball and am much better in the NBA.

[demize21]

And the Rutgers, TCU, Wyoming, Miami OH, Richmond, South Florida and Akron games. LOL

thanks for those btw

[Wizard]

No, no, no, I am not the best handicapper on the site. Thanks for the complement though.

When I say a team should be a fav but are a dog instead what I mean by that is that my prediction model showed that the dog will win the game straight up which means that they should be giving points to the other team, not getting points. Since they are getting points, then I have an edge. Doesn't always work but my big dog money line plays are > 50% this year straight up and >70% ATS. Since I hedge the moneyline play with a 2X bet on the spread that is why I am up over 9,000 units even though the win loss ratio is not that impressive.

just so i'm straight here. your prediction model has buffalo beating uconn straight up?

[MoneySportsGuy]

goodluck today curious !

[curious]

just so i'm straight here. your prediction model has buffalo beating uconn straight up?

Yes, I have them on both the spread and the moneyline.

[curious]

I don't agree with all the plays here, but if you have a system that has been working stick with it. I personally don't like playing that much money on different games and like to just pick a few that I feel confident on to play. I am against you tonight on 2 of the plays with UConn -15.5 and Oklahoma -8. That isn't saying much since I have started horrible so far in College Basketball and am much better in the NBA.

I am confident on all of these or I would not be plaing them. I am also up 9,000 units since November 25th when I started following basketball again after a long hiatus.

[Dad]

Kill it today, Curious!

[WestsidePete]

Keep up the good work curious

[BrandonLaz]

Now curious how does this spreadsheet work on picking a favorite on who should win straight up. That is the one thing I am curious about so I can look into seeing how it works. I will follow your thread more often to keep tabs on what you are doing. I just want to know where you get the numbers on for who to pick.

[curious]

Now curious how does this spreadsheet work on picking a favorite on who should win straight up. That is the one thing I am curious about so I can look into seeing how it works. I will follow your thread more often to keep tabs on what you are doing. I just want to know where you get the numbers on for who to pick.

I build a mathematical model of each team that includes factors like offensive efficiency, team contribution to defense, strength of schedule, defensive efficiency, regional rivalry, motivation, etc. This model then predicts how strong each team is if they played today. I then compare the numbers for the teams that are playing each other to see how much they would score against each other. That predicts the score for each game. I then equate the predicted score to both a spread and a moneyline. For any game where I think my spread or my moneyline are more accurate than the linesmakers and I think I have an edge, that is a play.

My system is really good at finding big dogs which win and the only reason they are big dogs is because the other team is being evaluated as better than they are because of some bias, usually publicity or popularity, so the line set by the linesmakers includes their bias.

[fuall 2]

i can't get any of your lines. Most the lines moved in your favor. some as much as 4.5.

[curious]

i can't get any of your lines. Most the lines moved in your favor. some as much as 4.5.

You have to get the opening line. That is when they are weakest.

[bostonbasher]

I build a mathematical model of each team that includes factors like offensive efficiency, team contribution to defense, strength of schedule, defensive efficiency, regional rivalry, motivation, etc. This model then predicts how strong each team is if they played today. I then compare the numbers for the teams that are playing each other to see how much they would score against each other. That predicts the score for each game. I then equate the predicted score to both a spread and a moneyline. For any game where I think my spread or my moneyline are more accurate than the linesmakers and I think I have an edge, that is a play.

My system is really good at finding big dogs which win and the only reason they are big dogs is because the other team is being evaluated as better than they are because of some bias, usually publicity or popularity, so the line set by the linesmakers includes their bias.

So what upsets/ big dogs have you picked that won straight up??????

[curious]

So what upsets/ big dogs have you picked that won straight up??????

These were all +250 or more I think

11/26/08
Pacific
Montana St

11/27/08
Maryland
UTEP

11/28/08
California

12/02/08
Ohio St

12/03/08
Penn St
Miami OH
Akron
TCU

[dob08]

So what upsets/ big dogs have you picked that won straight up??????

He picked Michigan St last night over UNC. OH, that's right, that was a 35 point win by UNC. The fact is, the model isn't very accurate on the fact that the underdog upsets the larger spreads, but the overall system works. No way is it smart to take Buffaloe ML, or MICH St. money line last night, when clearly there is no way it will pay off. Unless a terrorist takes out the team. But, who am I to say it won't happen.

[dob08]

Here are all my moneyline dog plays since the 28th of November.

So it looks like if they are only 1-6 point favs, they sometimes work. But 10point +, doesn't look so good.

[curious]

He picked Michigan St last night over UNC. OH, that's right, that was a 35 point win by UNC. The fact is, the model isn't very accurate on the fact that the underdog upsets the larger spreads, but the overall system works. No way is it smart to take Buffaloe ML, or MICH St. money line last night, when clearly there is no way it will pay off. Unless a terrorist takes out the team. But, who am I to say it won't happen.

The model isnt very accurate? +9,200 units from 11/25 to 12/04 using an inaccurate model?

Crackhead the moneyline dog plays win at a % > 50%. So what one play lost. Doesn't mean anything.

[curious]

So it looks like if they are only 1-6 point favs, they sometimes work. But 10point +, doesn't look so good.

Not sure what you are talking about. The moneyline dogs win at a ratio > 50%. Moneyline dogs where the spread is greater than 10 points don't have to win very much. I also hedge the moneyline play with 2X on the spread.