what do use to cap college hoops?

[ebbearsfb1]

Sites etc..
Is kenpom still worth buying?

[sportsguy04]

Flip a coin.

Heads-team a
Tails team b

[ebbearsfb1]

Lol.

Was trying to see if kenpom is worth buying.

[BiffTFinancial]

kenpom is worth buying, hands down.

[Louisvillekid1]

kenpom is very much worth it, its only $20

I use my eyes more than anything when capping...

[ebbearsfb1]

Kid just pmed you.

Didn't see your response in here..

Eye test is good
Haven't been able to watch as much hoops this year as id like.after tonight though

[Louisvillekid1]

i sent you back a pm

[ebbearsfb1]

I think im going double under on irish games tonight

[sportsguy04]

What exactly is ken Pom? Is it where he predicts the scores,

[BiffTFinancial]

What exactly is ken Pom? Is it where he predicts the scores,

it's a lot more than that, but his projected scores are there. very detailed breakdowns of teams on numerous statistical categories, helpful for spotting mismatches, and the best (only?) pace-based info around.

[ebbearsfb1]

I noticed. The tempo stuff on the front page. Iwhat kind of the info is in the paid section..
Waiting for my payment to process

it's a lot more than that, but his projected scores are there. very detailed breakdowns of teams on numerous statistical categories, helpful for spotting mismatches, and the best (only?) pace-based info around.

[BiffTFinancial]

I noticed. The tempo stuff on the front page. Iwhat kind of the info is in the paid section..
Waiting for my payment to process

pace-adjusted for/against stats for pretty much every aspect of hoops. point distribution, style components, analysis regarding overall team height. excellent resource with amazing amount of data.

[ebbearsfb1]

Lot of awesome info.


Is the game predictions useful.. ala if he has a total at 126 and its at 130 play the under?

[BiffTFinancial]

Lot of awesome info.


Is the game predictions useful.. ala if he has a total at 126 and its at 130 play the under?

the game predictions are useful, but it's just like any other power ratings-based resource (just more complex) in that you still have to answer the ultimate question in handicapping: where the line differs from the power ratings, is the difference value, or is it a "message" from the book? figure out how to answer that question on a consistent basis and you will have too much money to waste time here talking to chuckleheads like us.

[ebbearsfb1]

the game predictions are useful, but it's just like any other power ratings-based resource (just more complex) in that you still have to answer the ultimate question in handicapping: where the line differs from the power ratings, is the difference value, or is it a "message" from the book? figure out how to answer that question on a consistent basis and you will have too much money to waste time here talking to chuckleheads like us.

gotcha, good infor biff...

my theory from seeing other power rankings over the years as an example

if a power ranking system has depaul winning by 8 vs uconn tonight,

and uconn is minus 9.

more likely then not its a power ranking issue,

and take uconn..


basically, more often then not if a power ranking system is off by more than i'd say 8 points, something is funky or not being taking in to account by the rankings,

[ebbearsfb1]

the game predictions are useful, but it's just like any other power ratings-based resource (just more complex) in that you still have to answer the ultimate question in handicapping: where the line differs from the power ratings, is the difference value, or is it a "message" from the book? figure out how to answer that question on a consistent basis and you will have too much money to waste time here talking to chuckleheads like us.

hahahahaha..hopefully, as i get use to checking out his rankings, im able to do, that,

been fairly successful without it, hope using his info, and stats and what not, will bring it to the next level.


hahah chuckleheads lol


thankful the main reason i come to sbr is for the laughs, a little info and not picks lol,

besides a handful of guys, id be in the poor house coming here just looking for picks


chucky cheese heads

[BiffTFinancial]

gotcha, good infor biff...

my theory from seeing other power rankings over the years as an example

if a power ranking system has depaul winning by 8 vs uconn tonight,

and uconn is minus 9.

more likely then not its a power ranking issue,

and take uconn..


basically, more often then not if a power ranking system is off by more than i'd say 8 points, something is funky or not being taking in to account by the rankings,

i don't have a set threshold, but if it's just a couple of points, i definitely don't view that to be significant. a big thing that kenpom helps with that power rating don't (and can't) consider is match-ups. for example, when the best offensive rebounding team faces a team that can't stop offensive boards, or a team that commits a lot of dumb fouls plays a team good at drawing FTs, that likely is not considered in many power rating comparisons, which are supposed to compare all teams against a hypothetical team. i'm sure that kenpom and other more advanced power rating systems try to account for that, but i think that those mismatches can fundamentally impact the nature of a given game. ken pom makes it really easy to identify those mismatches. also i don't see how you can play totals without using kenpom's pace info. that stuff's fundamental.

[BiffTFinancial]

hahahahaha..hopefully, as i get use to checking out his rankings, im able to do, that,

been fairly successful without it, hope using his info, and stats and what not, will bring it to the next level.


hahah chuckleheads lol


thankful the main reason i come to sbr is for the laughs, a little info and not picks lol,

besides a handful of guys, id be in the poor house coming here just looking for picks


chucky cheese heads

i will be the 1,000th person today to say that SBR is not as good as it used to be. sorry to see Dexter leave as he was sharp to discuss games with and very generous about sharing his info. i'm all for a site where people can speak freely and talk shit to each other, but people who come online to pick fights with strangers just seem pathologically weird and sad to me. what's more, and why the proliferation of these people sucks, is that sharp people don't want to come and discuss games with that sort of nonsense. eh, whatever, with my current hoops record, i'm begging to get hot enough to be heckled.

[ebbearsfb1]

i will be the 1,000th person today to say that SBR is not as good as it used to be. sorry to see Dexter leave as he was sharp to discuss games with and very generous about sharing his info. i'm all for a site where people can speak freely and talk shit to each other, but people who come online to pick fights with strangers just seem pathologically weird and sad to me. what's more, and why the proliferation of these people sucks, is that sharp people don't want to come and discuss games with that sort of nonsense. eh, whatever, with my current hoops record, i'm begging to get hot enough to be heckled.

good post biff,


it use to be a good site to talk sports, now its just for the laughs.. soo much trolling, and now people being banned

we still get good discussion from time to time, ala the playoff thread we discussed about last week.

it was a good adult like discussion, no name calling, or bickering.

just talking sports...


its better like dex mentioned getting some posters fb names, and chatting with them on there,
to discussion a game or 2...



i've at least worked it down, where i have systems, or better reasoning for all my plays, so that i dont need to ever blindly tail someone here...

its odd, that they let trolls run wild anymore, and let good posters walk..

its a shame actually..


hopefully, you get hot as well!!! goood luck

[BiffTFinancial]

i don't have a set threshold, but if it's just a couple of points, i definitely don't view that to be significant. a big thing that kenpom helps with that power rating don't (and can't) consider is match-ups. for example, when the best offensive rebounding team faces a team that can't stop offensive boards, or a team that commits a lot of dumb fouls plays a team good at drawing FTs, that likely is not considered in many power rating comparisons, which are supposed to compare all teams against a hypothetical team. i'm sure that kenpom and other more advanced power rating systems try to account for that, but i think that those mismatches can fundamentally impact the nature of a given game. ken pom makes it really easy to identify those mismatches. also i don't see how you can play totals without using kenpom's pace info. that stuff's fundamental.

note: an important consideration is the reaction of the market. for instance, kenpom's projected score for Bama/Missou was much lower than then posted total of 133 (i don't have it with me; written down at home, but i think that it was around 126-127). in this instance, i treated that as value, in part because my own model had that game at around 125-127. in hindsight, the high total that didn't drop should've been a signal to me that the game was going to soar over the total that would've normally been expected by normal kenpom pace-based numbers. i should've been able to take a cue from the market's reaction to the relatively high posted total.

when does a model show value and when does it show that the book is tipping its hand? this is the borderline-existential question to be answered.

[BiffTFinancial]

good post biff,


it use to be a good site to talk sports, now its just for the laughs.. soo much trolling, and now people being banned

we still get good discussion from time to time, ala the playoff thread we discussed about last week.

it was a good adult like discussion, no name calling, or bickering.

just talking sports...


its better like dex mentioned getting some posters fb names, and chatting with them on there,
to discussion a game or 2...



i've at least worked it down, where i have systems, or better reasoning for all my plays, so that i dont need to ever blindly tail someone here...

its odd, that they let trolls run wild anymore, and let good posters walk..

its a shame actually..


hopefully, you get hot as well!!! goood luck

quality not quantity. there are a dozen or so guys on here that i really like discussing games with (Bank, Pacocn, Madison, Rick22, NoCoin, Hot Wings, Dexter, just to name a very few). as for trolls, i think that they are best ignored (which, importantly, requires less time and effort). they need attention like a fire needs air. i tend to stick to the same threads where there isn't a lot of that going on. maybe with their daily SBR points, everyone should get a reminder that one should never argue with fools because a passerby can't tell the difference.

take it easy, taking a break from hoops for a bit.

[ebbearsfb1]

Good post like you said... the total on bama didnt move at alll.
Where as duke started trending down closer to kenpoms number.
Same thing on creighton. Total started moving closer to the ken pom number


Same thing can be considered with sides..
Pitt 11
Gtown 44
Lined opened at plus 2 moved down to 1.

I believe marshall/tulsa today is same way.. will need to follow the market

note: an important consideration is the reaction of the market. for instance, kenpom's projected score for Bama/Missou was much lower than then posted total of 133 (i don't have it with me; written down at home, but i think that it was around 126-127). in this instance, i treated that as value, in part because my own model had that game at around 125-127. in hindsight, the high total that didn't drop should've been a signal to me that the game was going to soar over the total that would've normally been expected by normal kenpom pace-based numbers. i should've been able to take a cue from the market's reaction to the relatively high posted total.

when does a model show value and when does it show that the book is tipping its hand? this is the borderline-existential question to be answered.

[2daBank]

love ken-pom,,only service ive ever paid for but i been using since before he charged and to me it well worth the 20 bucks,,,i dont use for the projected scores all that much cept for like a base but use his numbers for my own projections..

[ebbearsfb1]

Mississippi is an example for tonight
They are 30
Tennessee 75

Kenpom has mississippi winning close.

Might be a worth a play if it moves towards plus 2/1.5

If it goes higher stay away or tennessee

Same thing with Arkansas at plus 2..

Might be worth checking

[No coincidences]

Darts?

In all seriousness, I don't really get the KenPom fascination given Vegas basically copies his numbers for their lines. I remember a few years ago I tracked it and over a three-week period of time, like 93% of Vegas' lines were within a possession of KenPom's projections. I personally think with all of the college games on the board, oddsmakers are lazy and just rip him off sometimes.

[2daBank]

Darts?

In all seriousness, I don't really get the KenPom fascination given Vegas basically copies his numbers for their lines. I remember a few years ago I tracked it and over a three-week period of time, like 93% of Vegas' lines were within a possession of KenPom's projections. I personally think with all of the college games on the board, oddsmakers are lazy and just rip him off sometimes.

whats not to get? again i dont really use his gm projections and yes quite often they line up very close to vegas numbers..not sure how you cant find his site useful tho? i mean all the numbers he has are invaluable to me,,, but i cap hoops almost strictly off numbers so maybe that it, i dunno..not sure how you dont find this all very useful?

against D-I teams only
Conference only

Adj. Efficiency	100.0 162	97.3 129	99.4
Adj. Tempo	66.0 216		67.0
Four Factors
Effective FG%:	45.9 250	43.9 39	48.3
Turnover %:	18.5 69	16.1 333	20.7
Off. Reb. %:	32.3 157	30.1 103	32.1
FTA/FGA:	32.0 253	41.0 275	35.6
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	32.1 218	31.3 88	33.5
2P%:	44.8 261	42.6 47	47.3
FT%:	62.5 318	69.5 207	68.9
Block%:	9.4 178	8.8 195	9.5
Steal%:	9.0 84	7.3 316	10.2
Style Components
3PA/FGA:	32.7 184	29.4 72	32.9
A/FGM:	65.7 7	59.5 286	54.0
Defensive Fingerprint:	Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:	28.2 157	23.8 276	27.3
2-Pointers:	53.9 130	51.7 195	52.4
Free Throws:	17.9 273	24.5 32	20.2
Strength of Schedule
Components:	101.7 53	97.0 48	99.4
Overall:	.6183 41		.5000
Non-conference:	.6581 40		.5000
Personnel
Bench Minutes:	35.2% 94		31.4%
Experience:	1.87 yrs 121		1.69
Effective Height:	+0.6 126		0.0
Average Height:	76.7" 180		76.7"

[No coincidences]

whats not to get? again i dont really use his gm projections and yes quite often they line up very close to vegas numbers..not sure how you cant find his site useful tho? i mean all the numbers he has are invaluable to me,,, but i cap hoops almost strictly off numbers so maybe that it, i dunno..not sure how you dont find this all very useful?

against D-I teams only
Conference only

Adj. Efficiency	100.0 162	97.3 129	99.4
Adj. Tempo	66.0 216		67.0
Four Factors
Effective FG%:	45.9 250	43.9 39	48.3
Turnover %:	18.5 69	16.1 333	20.7
Off. Reb. %:	32.3 157	30.1 103	32.1
FTA/FGA:	32.0 253	41.0 275	35.6
Miscellaneous Components
3P%:	32.1 218	31.3 88	33.5
2P%:	44.8 261	42.6 47	47.3
FT%:	62.5 318	69.5 207	68.9
Block%:	9.4 178	8.8 195	9.5
Steal%:	9.0 84	7.3 316	10.2
Style Components
3PA/FGA:	32.7 184	29.4 72	32.9
A/FGM:	65.7 7	59.5 286	54.0
Defensive Fingerprint:	Mostly Man
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3-Pointers:	28.2 157	23.8 276	27.3
2-Pointers:	53.9 130	51.7 195	52.4
Free Throws:	17.9 273	24.5 32	20.2
Strength of Schedule
Components:	101.7 53	97.0 48	99.4
Overall:	.6183 41		.5000
Non-conference:	.6581 40		.5000
Personnel
Bench Minutes:	35.2% 94		31.4%
Experience:	1.87 yrs 121		1.69
Effective Height:	+0.6 126		0.0
Average Height:	76.7" 180		76.7"

Don't get me wrong, it's incredibly useful -- I'm just saying that since linesmakers copy his homework and conclusions on games and set the lines where he has them, there isn't an "advantage" to having his stuff -- i.e., it's already all built into the line.

[ebbearsfb1]

Of the post totals
Biggest difference I see is 7pts
Wvu/texas 128.
Ken pom 121.

If line stays still or goes higher play over.

If line starts moving down under has a shot

See 4 totals worth watching