Notre Dame tonight

[No coincidences]

I was thinking about this game afterward and realizing how truly easy gambling can be if you just show a ton of discipline and make huge isolated bets from time to time when the opportunity presents itself.

We had an Irish team that return 80-some percent of its scoring and minutes from a year ago at home -- where they've been borderline invincible and have an incredible history of pulling off big upsets -- in a prime-time game against a Kentucky team full of kids who have never been in a true road game. Kentucky is in the Top-10, Notre Dame is unranked, yet the line is ND -1.

Seriously, the books were literally beating us over the heads with this one. The play was so obvious, and yet, I'm dicking around with other CBB plays, looking at the (rigged) NBA, playing the NFL game, etc. I won 4U with Notre Dame, true. But why wasn't this a 20U type play? Writing was on the wall from jump. I watched the game from start to finish and this Notre Dame team was never losing to this Kentucky team under these circumstances on this given night. They could've played the game 100 times and this play would've cashed over and over again. Books told you everything you needed to know.

If any of us were smart, we'd pass on 99.999% of the plays out there and wait until games like this came along -- then drop the hammer. I guess I'm more trying to tell myself this than anything else, because I'm as guilty as anyone. But I know some of you out there are in my boat. Love the damn action too much....

[Mr. Doughnut]

I do agree to a point, but hindsight is 20/20 my friend.

[hkarmy_kenny]

Well said

[ridims]

gambling... its a helluva drug

[Ralphie1412]

Duke v.s kentucky and ND v.s. Kentucky were my two biggest plays so far this year. Calipari doesnt have it this year. Not even close.

[alamo]

Isn't the gift of hindsight the most wonderful thing that only very few of us have been gifted with. NC has this gift, use it well sir.

[No coincidences]

Duke v.s kentucky and ND v.s. Kentucky were my two biggest plays so far this year. Calipari doesnt have it this year. Not even close.

Exactly. You know this, the books know this, and anyone who watches college basketball knows this. Opportunities like these don't come along very often, but when they do, you have to take full advantage. I'm not saying Kentucky won't still be overvalued because of their name, but never again like they were in the two games you mentioned.

[No coincidences]

Isn't the gift of hindsight the most wonderful thing that only very few of us have been gifted with. NC has this gift, use it well sir.

I played Notre Dame. It's not like I passed. I'm just saying it should have been a monster based on a "perfect storm" of scenarios that led to the line being where it was. If you can disagree with anything I said re: the game itself and the fact that it played out exactly the way it should have, feel free.

[Ambition]

We say this now after the game is over. And that's all the risk in gambling, bankroll management is most important. So if you want to put your house on only 2 plays a year then go for it but, those 2 game aren't locks and you never know what could happen. That's why it's gambling. But, I do understand your reasoning behind it. The most obvious plays scare us the most and I believe thats the reason why we don't unload.

Think about this; if you put 20 units on ND and they lost don't you think you'd be kicking yourself since you put that much units on an unranked team against the #8 team in the country?

[og4667]

its frustrating absolutely...my two plays last night were Heat -5.5 and Notre Dame -1...Miami felt like free money after seeing the move to 13 knowing I bought in early.

These ND -1 type of plays are great but sometimes we are afraid of success without even knowing it. Your right, the books were hitting us over the head with this play and the Miami Fl -1 play the day before. Florida was also in the same boat as far as I can tell seeing a huge majority of bets on Marquette with the line going from 9.5 to 11.

Maybe we should just stop trying to guess/handicap what will happen and let the market dictate our plays, especially for marquee tv games.

You should start a "Hammer Bet" thread so we can discuss these type of plays as they present themselves...

[PaperTrail07]

very well said....i say it all the time....if the bet is not deposit worthy....dont bet it.....line should SCREAm in your face!

[TheBetBuysDanK]

very well said....i say it all the time....if the bet is not deposit worthy....dont bet it.....line should SCREAm in your face!

Great way to put it.

And you're absolutly right NC. I know we all love the action, and think that we can be smart enough to find angles and make good reads on mulitple games on any given day. But if you exercised the true patience to only "drop the hammer" on these few, PRIME opportunities, then it becomes a lot less like gambling, and a lot more like investing. myself, I love to gamble via sportsbetting. It why I will make 70+ wagers in a week, hell, maybe even a weekend. But I ALSO like making money. I think it may be prudent to seperate the gambling plays from the "investment" plays. Have an account where you can dick around on mid week mac games or ACC football, where it is ALWAYS gambling, but ALWAYS fun....but then have a seperate "drop the hammer" account where you simply unload large %s of that bankroll on these rare, great opportunites. I think this type of approach would seriously help a degenerate like myself. Ill say it again, GOOD THOUGHT, NC!

[Madison]

I was thinking about this game afterward and realizing how truly easy gambling can be if you just show a ton of discipline and make huge isolated bets from time to time when the opportunity presents itself.

We had an Irish team that return 80-some percent of its scoring and minutes from a year ago at home -- where they've been borderline invincible and have an incredible history of pulling off big upsets -- in a prime-time game against a Kentucky team full of kids who have never been in a true road game. Kentucky is in the Top-10, Notre Dame is unranked, yet the line is ND -1.

Seriously, the books were literally beating us over the heads with this one. The play was so obvious, and yet, I'm dicking around with other CBB plays, looking at the (rigged) NBA, playing the NFL game, etc. I won 4U with Notre Dame, true. But why wasn't this a 20U type play? Writing was on the wall from jump. I watched the game from start to finish and this Notre Dame team was never losing to this Kentucky team under these circumstances on this given night. They could've played the game 100 times and this play would've cashed over and over again. Books told you everything you needed to know.

If any of us were smart, we'd pass on 99.999% of the plays out there and wait until games like this came along -- then drop the hammer. I guess I'm more trying to tell myself this than anything else, because I'm as guilty as anyone. But I know some of you out there are in my boat. Love the damn action too much....

After 40 years gambling I have adopted this theory in principle. There are 2 main caveats that fail for 99.9% of the people who try this. DICIPLINE. Can you wait a month to your next big play and ACTION. In my father's words (and I'm sure he didn't pen them) "What's the money burning a hole in your pocket". In essence right on ... just VERY hard to exercise.

I post my NFL plays in Biff's thread and we couldn't be any more different in that he is a volume player. Me, I'm usually one and done, and haven't made a posted play over 2U all year. Circa +12U.

[Madison]

Isn't the gift of hindsight the most wonderful thing that only very few of us have been gifted with. NC has this gift, use it well sir.

However hindsight is one of life's greatest teachers i.e. try not repeat history but learn from it.

[PaperTrail07]

people wanna learn from history but if you study hard enough...you see history repeats iteslf

[RG3ING]

Duke v.s kentucky and ND v.s. Kentucky were my two biggest plays so far this year. Calipari doesnt have it this year. Not even close.

Easy trigger we are playing without a point guard fade calipari an the boys early don't try it a month from now!! An don't try next year even early in season we have the greatest recruiting class in the history of college basketball coming!! We will still be a sweet16 team this year!!

[Frisco]

Wonder what the line will be when Kentucky goes to Florida.

[No coincidences]

its frustrating absolutely...my two plays last night were Heat -5.5 and Notre Dame -1...Miami felt like free money after seeing the move to 13 knowing I bought in early.

These ND -1 type of plays are great but sometimes we are afraid of success without even knowing it. Your right, the books were hitting us over the head with this play and the Miami Fl -1 play the day before. Florida was also in the same boat as far as I can tell seeing a huge majority of bets on Marquette with the line going from 9.5 to 11.

Maybe we should just stop trying to guess/handicap what will happen and let the market dictate our plays, especially for marquee tv games.

You should start a "Hammer Bet" thread so we can discuss these type of plays as they present themselves...

Well said og.