Think me and my shit streak are gonna take some time off to recover.
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Think me and my shit streak are gonna take some time off to recover.Comment -
Not making any real money wagers for at least a week, but gonna keep capping so that maybe I can turn this around when I'm ready. No write-ups in the mean time, just picks. I'd say fade these with my record, but when there's none of my money involved - they'll probably do great!
SUNDAY: 11.23.08
San Diego +4.5
Delaware/Marist UNDER 143.5
Portland (PICK)
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Still suckin' the kawk. 1-2. Delaware & Marist looked great at half time, then they explode in the 2nd half and go into OT to cinch an over. Guess I should be thankful no real money was lost. But damn.Comment -
Thanks
Thank you for a great spread sheet.
Great job.
Keep it up,the season is young
The VacComment -
Had some time to just add mini-notes about the games. Still no real money betting, these are just to try and get my capping skills on track while I chill out on losing money.
MONDAY: 11.24.08
Jacksonville State/UMASS UNDER 155
UMASS shouldn't have much trouble here, but they are right now a volume offense. Taking alot of shots to score while shooting a low percentage. I imagine they get their 70-80 points, but Jacksonville State isn't prolific on offense. UMASS isn't great on defense, but should do enough for this to stay under.
Miami (OH) +105
I think the wrong side is favored here, but such is life with a team playing on the road. Wright State is a tough defensive minded club, but so is Miami. Wright State lost to two clubs - Illinois St. & C.Michigan who I don't think are as solid as this Miami team. I think the Redhawks have the edge on offense though. No point in taking +1.5 here, money line or nothing.
UCONN -5
I was a little shocked at how Wisconsin put away San Diego in the end yesterday, but in all honestly the Toreros had no business being in the game with their poor shooting and lack of offensive options right now outside of two players. UCONN will provide a much more stern test for Wisconsin and the Huskies should have too much length, size & athleticism for the Badgers. Expecting UCONN to pull away late in the 2nd half.
Thinking of a 4th play with UNLV -1.5, but something is keeping me from pulling the trigger right now to make that a play.
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Whoa. Could it be? 3-0. A couple more days of this and I might take the noose off my neck.
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TUESDAY: 11.25.08
Ball State/UW-Milwaukee OVER 131
UW-Milwaukee has the ability to score in bunches & give up points in bunches. Both great qualities for an OVER. Ball State isn't an offensive juggernaut, but they do have enough scoring punch in the front court to put up points on this UW-Milwaukee club.
Cornell -6
Just a better team period here in Cornell even with their best player still sidelined. E.Michigan has been bad on the road so far, losing by double digits in 3 out of 4. Cornell might make it 4 out of 5.
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I think I have rediscovered discipline in this time of no money bets. Fell into bad habits early this year, instead of just making the plays of the day - was jacking around too much with extra games, etc. Need to stick my the picks I like and quit adding crap!
When I dive back in next week. It's PODs only. I'm hooking myself up to a shock collar. 2-0, what, what?
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Congrats on your string of luck the past few days. I knew you were going to bounce back. You are a good capper. Looking forward to the rest of your weeks playsComment -
Likely will not be making any more picks until Saturday night when I get back from Thanksgiving trip. GL with your plays this weekend!
WEDNESDAY: 11.26.08
Cleveland State -4.5
The Vikings were tabbed as one of those mid-major programs that could make some noise this season. They've been a bit up & down this season, but their two losses came to power conference teams in Washington & Kansas State. Florida International is really struggling to score points (58 ppg) and just barely beat the same Toledo team that C-State routed yesterday. State needs Cedric Jackson to be a factor soon, but should have too much for FIU.
Arkansas/South Alabama UNDER 150
S.Alabama likes to push the tempo as evidenced by their 76 ppg average. I do think they will score close to their average in this one, but Arkansas is why I like the under. The Razorbacks are struggling to score. They have a 72 ppg average, but the #s are tricky. They scored 91 (OT), 68 & 57. Arkansas is shooting just 43% from the floor. Since the opener though, their defense has tightened. Allowing around 69 ppg, but with 87 coming in that opener. I can see S.Alabama getting into the 70s, but even with a weaker defense, the Razorbacks may have a tough time getting there with them.
Montana State +6
The Bobcats visit Corvallis, OR to take on an anemic offensive squad at Oregon State. The Beavers come off a 52 pt. performance in a home loss to Yale. Their other two games, a 47-45 loss to Howard and a 79-71 loss to Nevada. Montana State isn't going to be a part of the chase in the Big Sky, but the Bobcats have at least been competitive. Winning in OT at Colorado, sticking with Boise State until the 2nd half when they lost 74-61 & a 9 pt. loss to Nevada. The two road games in Colorado & Boise show me that this team won't be scared of an even less talented squad tonight. Leading scorer Bobby Howard and inside threat Divaldo Mbunga will need to do the damage. Without much scoring punch at OSU, this game should remain fairly close & Montana State could even sneak out with a win.
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SATURDAY: 11.29.08
St.Bonaventure -4
Although they aren't expected to be among the A-10 leaders, St.Bonaventure should have a little too much talent for Canisius. The Bonnies are averaging 73 ppg, while Canisius is struggling to put up 57 ppg. The Golden Griffs have been held in the 40s twice, while the Bonnies have made it into the 70s in 4 of 5. St.Bonaventure is sporting a trio of double digit scorers in Jonathan Hall, Chris Matthews & Andrew Nicholson that should be enough to get past this Canisius club which figures to be gritty, but not quite enough to keep pace.
Cal-Poly/Utah State OVER 128.5
Utah State has had little trouble putting up points at home this season and this one should be no different. The Aggies are averaging 73 ppg at home and are shooting over 50% on the season from the floor and 39% from beyond the arc. Cal Poly doesn't figure to slow that pace much having given up at least 67 points to teams with an offensive pulse this season. The main focus here will be if Cal Poly can do enough damage to help the over. They are averaging just 64 ppg on under 40% shooting. However, outside of a 40 pt. effort vs. UALR in their opener, they have been good for at least 64 in their other three contests. If they can achieve that # here and Utah State hits for 70+, should have a winner.
North Texas/Houston UNDER 158.5
The books have given a generous total here that looks good for an under effort perhaps. UNT is averaging 83 ppg, but Houston has been solid on D, allowing just 60 ppg. Even with gaudy offensive numbers for UNT, 3 oftheir 5 games have hit under tonight's total. Houston is off a 100+ point effort against Alcorn State, but had only hit for 63, 76 & 73 prior to that outburst. They remain an average offense with about 44% shooting from the floor. UNT's defense has held opponents to 41% shooting, but the volume of shots allowed is what would worry an over bettor. I see Houston getting plenty of opportunities offensively here and they may well make it to 80 points or a bit more. However, their defense should have enough to hold UNT down into the low 70s or less and that means the UNDER has a solid shot here.
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You should know real money is back in effect for me as St.Bonaventure blows a 5 pt. lead with :30 left in regulation. Fading is probably wise.
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Waiting for more totals to be put on the board before looking for other plays.
SUNDAY: 11.30.08
Wichita State/Michigan State OVER 132
The Spartans are averaging 81.5 ppg this season and come off an excellent performance against Okie State. Shooting over 51% from the field, State should find success against a Wichita State club that has been solid on D, but has yet to face a versatile offense like the Spartans. Michigan State has been a little lax on D to start the season, but they have also faced tough clubs like Okie State & Maryland. Still yielding close to 45% from the floor and 42% from the arc should give way to the Shockers getting in the neighborhood of their 65 ppg average, especially if Wichita State can find their 3 point stroke. I like the Spartans to get into the mid 70s or higher here and that means the Shockers should just need in the low 60s to get this thing over the posted number.
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SUNDAY: 11.30.08
Cal-State Fullerton +3
Josh Akognon (24.2 ppg). Know the name. This kid is a dynamo for Fullerton and is always the guy who can be the difference maker. If he is in the zone, he can carry the Titans past most teams of a similar talent level. Neither team shoots great, both in the low 40s from the floor. But Fullerton can get rolling with the 3 ball. In a basic toss-up game, the 3 points is very nice as I feel Fullerton has an outstanding shot to win this straight up. Moneyline at +130 if you're down with OPP. Ya you know me.
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Cornell -3
I've looked for anything that would indicate why you should think Cornell won't beat Indiana. Home court for IU? Big whoop. This is a Hoosiers squad that BARELY beat Chaminade in Maui. They had trouble locking down the 3 pt. shooters for that club & that is a strength again here for the Big Red of Cornell. Cornell is hitting over 38% from beyond the arc, while IU yields 39%. Cornell isn't going to scare anyone defensively, but they should be adequate against the duct tape unit from Hoosierland. Don't expect Cornell - an NCAA tourney club from last season w/experience - to be intimidated by the name on the jersey.
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Really disappointed with the two losses today. If Michigan State & Wichita State have a pulse in the 1st half, the over gets done. Cornell, I guess that was a trap because I didn't expect to shoot well again and for Cornell to be icy . Might have one more play tonight to try and even it up.
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Drake/New Mexico OVER 137.5
New Mexico had their first subpar offensive outing in losing to VCU last night, 67-55. Prior to that, the Lobos had been rolling along with no less than 71 points in any of their other 5 games. New Mexico shoots the ball well, at a 49% clip and 37% from distance. Drake has struggled on D, despite allowing just 66 ppg, the Bulldogs are giving up 45% shooting from the floor & over 40% from beyond the arc. On the flip side, Drake is putting up about 66 ppg and remains a 3 pt. threat at 38%. The New Mexico defense has been steady, yielding just 38% shooting from the floor, but still giving up 67 ppg. Drake is off a poor effort against Vandy as they neither shot the ball well nor defended in a 72-57 loss. Josh Young needs to get untracked for Drake as he leads them in scoring at almost 14 ppg, but is shooting under 40%. New Mexico needs leading scorer Tony Danridge to bounce back from an awful night against VCU for this to go over. With plenty of other weapons outsid of Danridge, look for the Lobos to get back on track offensively now that they have a game under their belt in Mexico. Drake may find a few more holes against New Mexico that they did with a solid D from Vandy. If Drake gets into the mid 60s, Nex Mexico should do the rest.Comment -
Alright, so we made it through the first month. Finished a tad over .500 at 22-21, but down over a unit. Learned alot about what to do and what not to do in the first month, hopefully that translates to profits in December!
MONDAY: 12.1.08
Wisconsin/Virginia Tech OVER 121
The number here seems a shade low to me although this should be a battle in the 60s. The Badgers average 67 ppg on a decent 45% from the floor and 38% from distance. Va.Tech's D limits opponents to around 64 ppg and just 38% shooting. Turn it around and you see the Hokies with almost 69 ppg on 42% shooting, just 32% from 3. Wisconsin keeps opponents down to 58 ppg and 41% shooting, around 35% from beyond the arc. The will be the first true road test for the Badgers, while Va.Tech will be looking for an early season "marquee" win against a Top 25 club for their NCAA resume. With that in mind & good talent on both sides offensively despite the numbers, I think this slips past the number and into the mid 120s or higher.
Idaho +3
The Vandals have owned this series against Sacramento State (10-1 all time) since the Bees became a D1 program in the 90s. The Vandals are off their most complete game of the season, a record setting 101-47 demolition of UC-Irvine. That is the largest margin of victory in Idaho school history. All five starters got into double figures. Idaho has been solid on the offensive end this season, shooting 47% from the field & about 42% from distance. That should match up well with the leaky Sac State D which has yielded 71.5 ppg on 48% shooting and 44% from beyond the arc. Sac State has struggled to find the net all year with just a 57.8 ppg average despite decent percentages. Idaho won't be mistaken for a front runner in the WAC, but the three points is a plus for a team that has a great shot at a ML win at +135.
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CS-Northridge/Drexel UNDER 142.5 (1/2 unit)
Northridge is a volume offense, but they still do not shoot a high percentage. Barely above 43%, while their 3 pt prowess is worse at 27%. Drexel meanwhile is a little tough to gauge perhaps defensively. Pounded by Georgetown, but keeping Penn down at 37% shooting might be a more accurate gauge of tonight's. Drexel also appears limited offensively, shooting in the low 30s. Northridge is giving up 80 ppg, but alot of that has come to teams willing to gun it out with the Matadors, not to mention teams like Stanford & New Mexico that have the firepower. Unless Northridge shoots a higher percentage, I don't see this game getting past the number.
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Great start to December. Nice call on backing off Cal State and betting the under. Let's pull for Idaho now
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Yeah too bad the Team Contest doesn't let ML wagers fly. Would have taken Idaho there too. Think I need to play my PODs all in that one and see what happens. Definitely should have gone for Wisconsin/Va.Tech over. Was pretty sold on that. The UNDER just happened to be one that I didn't notice until the # got out of control and went up 6 points during the day.Comment -
TUESDAY: 12.2.08
Villanova -13.5
The Wildcats have come out hitting on most of their cylinders offensively this season. Averaging 79.2 ppg on 47% shooting. Dante Cunningham leads the charge with an average of 17.5 ppg while Scottie Reynolds & the two Coreys (Fisher/Stokes) all post double digit averages as well. 'Nova has shown a good knack for the getting to the FT line as well. Knocking down 77% from the stripe helps. The Cats have been equally impressive defensively, yielding just 58 ppg on 37% shooting. Penn has had a rough start offensively, hitting just 40% from the floor, yet still netting 70 ppg. The Quakers did stick with North Carolina in their opener (losing by 15), but since has last 3 of 4, losing by 2 to Drexel, 12 to Penn State & 10 to Albany. With an uneven offensive performance and a leaky D, expect Villanova to take control of this in the 2nd half and pull away.
CS-Fullerton/LSU OVER 144.5
This should be a track meet. I've been hyping this kid all year and he certainly is someone to watch. Fullerton's Josh Akognon is averaging 24.4 ppg and leads the charge for the Titans. They are a high volume shooting team and they live up to that billing. Lots of shots, FG% at 43.8%. They shoot a decent 3 pt. % at almost 36 and are a very streaky team from 3. Their challenge is to get past the stifling LSU defense which is yielding just 57 ppg on 32% shooting! The good news is that LSU when encountering a team that likes to run, will run as well. The Tigers are averaging 80 ppg on 45% shooting, 40% from distance. They shouldn't run into alot of resistance from a CSF team giving up 75 ppg. At home this season against other volume shooters like Northwestern State & Troy State, the totals tipped at 149 & 151 for the Tigers with LSU getting to 90 points in both contests. CSF has given up no less than 75 pts in any game and this one should be no different. LSU should break 80 here, the main question is can CSF get into the mid 60s to push the OVER? They've gotten at least that in all but one of their 7 games this season, so I say YES WE CAN! Looking for the total to get to about 150 or more.Comment -
Iowa/Boston College OVER 127 (1/2 Unit)
Trying another one that has had some late line movement in a positive direction for what I want here - this total dropped from 130 to the current #. Iowa is one of those efficient half court squads that simply is not going to get into a running contest with anyone. However, the Hawkeyes have had two straight games against teams like BC that would prefer an uptempo game. Against W.Virginia & Kansas State, both Iowa games hit at 128 or more. Iowa is shooting just under 50% from the field, 41% from beyond the arc. BC gives up around 41% and 65 ppg. Where Iowa is adding alot is from the FT line. 40 points in their last two from FTs. BC is putting up about 75 ppg on 45% shooting. Iowa yields just under 59. With the exception of a road game at St.Louis, the Eagles have pushed past tonight's # in all their games. And at home, they've scored no less than 80 points - although none of those games featured a slow tempo team. Still, if BC can dictate a decent tempo in their favor, they should creep into the upper 60s. Iowa's efficient offense should be good for 60 against a good, but not great BC defense. See this one slipping over, just barely.
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Late add
Virginia +8 (1/2 unit)
Skipped too many picks that I liked today and decided to finally play one that I did. UVA took Syracuse to the wire on the road. Think they can stay within reach of a good Minnesota club.
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WEDNESDAY: 12.3.08
East Carolina +110
The Pirates have been a bit of a suprise in the early-go. Their offense has been solid, averaging 79 ppg on 46% shooting. Sam Hinnant is the real deal here, leading the team with 19 ppg. This should be a good match-up for ECU against a Wilmington D that hasn't stopped anyone. UNCW is allowing 92 ppg on 49& shooting! Wilmington does have a volume offense, averaging 92 ppg on 43% shooting. But this team just got crushed by A&M-Corpus Christi on the road & faces an ECU D that limits foes to 38% shooting and 67.7 ppg. Expect a back & forth affair here, but ECU has enough to get this done.
Arkansas-Little Rock +145
Good match-up here for a tough Little Rock squad. They've been adequate offensively at almost 70 ppg on 45% shooting. That should bode well against a Missouri State team that has been awful defensively, giving up just 65 ppg, but on 48% shooting. Where UALR should win this game is on the defensive end however where they give up just 60 ppg on 41% shooting. Missouri State averages just 60 ppg and shoots just 40%.
West Virginia/Mississippi OVER 140.5
The Mountaineers should love playing a team that will push the tempo, especially after their debacle in Kentucky. WV is still averaging almost 77 ppg despite their 43 pt. output against Kentucky. Shooting 48% from the floor & 39% from distance. Ole Miss does have a decent D that is limiting opponents to 67 ppg and 40% shooting, but that hasn't kept most adequate offenses from scoring on the Rebels. Utah hit for 82 and Marshall (not exactly superior) scored 78. So, West Virginia should be able to do some damage. Ole Miss on the offensive side is led by David Huertas 22.7 ppg. The Rebels have scored at least 70 ppg in their last 5 straight & have let in 71, 83, 78 & 70 in 4 of their last 5 games. Overall, this game looks primed for both teams to have some success and work into the 70s.
Wyoming/Boise State UNDER 151.5
At first glance here, you see a couple of offenses with high averages. Wyoming is scoring 85.6 ppg, while Boise averages 76 ppg. Closer inspection though and you see the Cowboys of Wyoming do this with more of an efficient approach, rather than volume shooting as does Boise for the most part. That could see a lower total tonight against a Boise D that has allowed just 38% shooting. Wyoming's D has been stout as well, limiting foes to 36% shooting. If you take out a double OT game and their 100 point opener, Boise's offense has not been as good as the #s indicate, scoring 52, 74 & 62. Look for the defenses here to do enough to limit the accurate offenses.
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Appalachian State -4
The Mountaineers look like a good play here against conference foe Furman. The Mountaineers are 7-2 ATS vs. Furman in their last 9 meetings. That includes a pair of double digit wins last season. This is a battle of two awful defenses as Appy State is yielding 88.5 ppg on 45% shooting. Furman gives up 74.4 ppg on 48% shooting. The difference should be offense where Appy State has more talent. Averaging 86.8 ppg compared to 64 ppg for Furman. The Paladins want to slow the tempo, but they haven't done a good job of that so far this season as up-tempo Duquesne and Notre Dame rattled Furman for 85 & 93 points. Furman's four losses have all been by 5 or more (1-4 overall). The Mountaineers are a volume offense, taking alot of shots. While only hitting 43%, they do a solid job on 2nd chance opportunites as one of the leading rebounding teams in the nation with 46.5 boards per contest.
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GL EaglesphanComment -
Late add, no write-up
San Francisco -3.5
More offensive talent with the Dons. Cal-Poly has trouble scoring and defending. Hopefully SF wins smoothly in double digits.
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THURSDAY: 12.4.08
Oklahoma State/Washington UNDER 165
This one won't be for the faint of heart because at times, this game is probably going to look a good bet to go over 200. However, despite the pace both teams like to play, I think this total is a tad too high. OSU has been revving its offensive engine under 1st year coach Travis Ford to the tune of 83.6 ppg. However, in 3 straight, the Cowboys have failed to reach 80. Albeit that was against Gonzaga, Michigan State & Siena. All quality teams that can play solid defense. I think Washington can do that as well though, something you don't often think of with the Huskies. They are allowing 67.8 ppg on 43% shooting. Outside of an 86 point outburst from Florida, Washington has held the majority of their oppponents down. Offensively, the Huskies average almost 73 ppg on 44% shooting, while OSU allows about 75 per game on 44% shooting. Outside of the Florida game again (59% shooting/84 pts), the Huskies have not broken higher than 78. Despite all the run & shoot tactis, OSU has only broken higher than tonight's total in 2 of their 7 games. Washington, just one of 6.
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UConn/Buffalo UNDER 149
In looking at Buffalo, this is a team that does struggle to score. The Bulls average 66 ppg on 41% shooting. Their best output was their last, 83 points against Temple. Prior to that, the team had reached 70 just once in 4 games. They go up against a UConn D that has limited opponents to 60 ppg on 37% shooting & 34% from beyond the arc. With the exception of LaSalle who scored 81 on the Huskies, their other 6 opponents combined averaged just a shade over 56 ppg. Offensively, UConn has rolled up an averag of 84 ppg. That comes on 50% shooting from the field. For me this comes down to how much does UConn score? I expect Buffalo to have a tough time reaching much higher than 60-65 on a good night against a stiff UConn D. Can Buffalo keep UConn around 80-83? Last year's game was 82-57 in favor of UConn. I think something in that range of about 140-145 points is what to expect.
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I started looking at more stats and found some new info I am going to incorporate. The Pomeroy Ratings (kenpom.com) include how efficient (points generated) teams are with offensive & defensive possessions. The ratings are based on 100 possessions. For example, South Carolina has an offense rank in this system at 106.7. So for every offensive possession, they are averaging 1.067 points. Furman is averaging 89.5. So they average .895 points per possession. This is an interesting tool to me, specifically for totals. We'll see if it helps or hurts. These will be the numbers I put below the totals spread for any game I pick in the future with offense listed first & defense second. Average possessions next to both ratings. Average possessions based on a loose formula of (FGAs + Turnovers) - Offensive Rebounds x (FTAs x .475). This is not my formula, it's one I have seen used around. Believe this will be close, but like it to go into the mid 140s.
FRIDAY: 12.5.08
Furman/South Carolina OVER 142
*Furman: .895O/1.112D - 66.02 possessions per game
*South Carolina: 1.067O/.889D - 75.7 possessions per game
Don't forget the early tip - 6pm ET/5pm CT. You've got your high volume South Carolina Gamecocks going against an inferior Furman squad here. Things to like: The Cocks average close to 76 possessions per game with a 106.7% efficiency per possesion. They average 83 ppg on 47% shooting (41% from 3), you have to like their chances of putting up big numbers again. They've only been held below 80 once this season. Furman meanwhile has been destroyed by a pair of similar squads - Duquesne winning 85-65 & Notre Dame pounding them 93-61. SC doesn't possess quite the firepower of Notre Dame, but they're capable of equaling Duquesne's performance. Furman's D yields 72.8 ppg on 47% shooting. The only real question seems to be can Furman get to 60? They average 66 possessions per game. It looks likely as the Paladins have scored between 60-67 in each game. I don't think South Carolina has trouble cracking 80 with Devan Downey & Zam Fredrick raining down the Js.
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St.Peter's/Fairfield OVER 127
*St.Peter's: .796O/.973D - 67.9 possessions
*Fairfield: .987O/.977D - 68.35 possessions
St.Peter's definitely isn't going to wow anyone on offense. They're averaging just 56.8 ppg on a poor 36% from the floor. Fairfield though has given up 69 ppg on 44% shooting, so a chance to reach that average or more is there. On the other side, Fairfield should have success on offense as they come in off their best two games offensively this season. 160 points in their last 2 combined. Stags shoot it decently at close to 45% (38% from beyond the arc). St.Peter's gives up close to 46% shooting and 66 ppg. Fairfield also possess a 3 pt. attack that can catch fire and put up points. They have hit 18/33 over their last 2 games. Don't expect St.Peter's to give you more than 60, but I do think Fairfield should get into the upper 60s and that should sneak it by the #.
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Arizona/Texas A&M 1st Half OVER 64.5
No big insight on this one, just liked it when I saw it & well maybe that will work today?! Arizona has been getting off to decent starts this season, scoring in the 30s in every 1st half I believe. They've also allowed most teams to get into the 30s with the exceptions of MSVU & Loyola (MT). Both those 1st halves still went over tonight's total due to Arizona's offensive output. A&M will need a quick start to make sure this one happens though.
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SATURDAY: 12.6.08
Charlotte/S.Illinois OVER 129
*Charlotte: .974O/1.009D - 73.85 possessions
*S.Illinois: 1.041O/.962D - 68.85 possessions
Early on, both these teams have favored the OVER. Charlotte has hit it in 5 of 7 and S.Illinois in 4 of 5. Charlotte is averagins over 71 ppg despite just 41% shooting. They remain a volume offense as evidenced with their average of almost 74 possessions per game. S.Illinois has yet to find their defensive stride this season as they yield close to 69 ppg on 44% shooting. With the exception of St.Louis & a D2 school, most teams have been able to something close to their average or more on the Salukis. Offensively, SIU is efficient as they average well above a point per possession. That should match well against a Charlotte D that gives up over 75 ppg on close to 45% shooting & 39% from beyond the arc.
Rhode Island/Providence UNDER 163
*RIU: 1.19O/1.05D - 68.7 possessions
*PC: 1.045O/.983D - 74.08 possessions
No doubt we'll see plenty of running & gunning here, but the total seems a bit inflated even so. Providence averages a shade over 80 ppg on 45% shooting. RIU yields close to 75 ppg on 46% shooting. The Rams meanwhile average close to 82 ppg on opver 50% shooting. PC gives up about 72 ppg on 44% shooting. Even with all this, Rhode Island has only hit above this # twice in 8 games. PC hit well above this number twice in the early-go, but lately have been under this total in 5 straight including games against offensive juggernauts Baylor & St.Mary's. This won't be for the faint of heart again as there will be times when this game looks like a shoe-in for getting 180+ points. Hoping though that the road keeps the Rams down just a tad and that maybe PC's D does work today. It'll be close, but I think this one tops off in the high 150s near 160.
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Appalachian State -1.5
Appy State comes in against Wofford as one of the more prolific volume offenses in college hoops. They average 82 ppg, despite shooting just 42%. They also showed in their last game that they can win in the 60s. They barely covered the spread against Furman, 65-60. But they fought from behind and that should serve them well in another road game. Kellen Brand, the team's leading scorer, was held in check with 9 points so it was good to see his teammates step up. Wofford is yielding 69 ppg on 45% shooting. This will be the best up-tempo team they've faced since Clemson hung 93 on them early in the campaign. Wofford's bread & butter on the offensive end is the 3 ball. They've made 26 of 63 in their last 3 games, not coincidentally turning in their best point performances at about 74 ppg. The good news is the Mountaineers of Appy State hold opponents under 30% from distance. State is also one of the best rebounding squads in the country at over 46 boards per game (alot due to missing shots/off.rebounding). They've been outworked just once on the boards, that ended in one of their two losses (3-2). Appalachian State is another point + per possession team at 1.005. Wofford's D gives up over a point per possession at 105.5. Wofford offensively is less than a point per possession at .963 which should help counter act Appy State's 1.032 on D.
Arkansas State +7
Intriguing line here. Missouri State up until their white washing of Arkansas-Little Rock, 59-37, had been poor on both ends of the floor. They're still struggling to put up 60 ppg and shoot just under 40% from the field. Arkansas State meanwhile has been stingy defensively, giving up just 57.6 ppg on 35% shooting. Offensively, the Red Wolves get close to 70 ppg on 47% shooting. They've scooped up three straight wins on the road and lost to Ole Miss by 13 in their only road loss. The Wolves are 5-0 ATS so far, surprising to most. This would seem to be a pretty event contest, so getting points here for the team that might even be better seems like a solid option.
Dayton/Akron OVER 121.5
*Dayton: .994O/.797D - 68.25 possessions
*Akron: 1.094O/.901D - 65.38 possessions
Dayton looks to have found some offensive rhythm as they've put up back-2-back 80+ point efforts against Marquette & Troy. They'll face a stiffer test vs. an Akron D allowing just 56.6 ppg on 38% shooting. The Flyers though are averaging close to a point per possession while the intimidating Akron D still gives up .901 points per one possession. Akron meanwhile averages 68.7 ppg on 45% shooting, but also faces a tough go here. Dayton's D is giving up just 55 ppg on 35% shooting. Akron is very efficient offensively on its limited possesions, 1.094 pts. per one possesion. That should help off-set that Dayton D just enough. This game doesn't set up to be a barn burner, but if Dayton carries over with its improved offensive play, this should sneak into the mid 120s.
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