Full Court Press: 2008/2009 NCAA Hoops Picks

[EaglesPhan36]

Samford +9
Just a hunch play, Samford plays a very different brand of ball, very slow & deliberate. Georgia Southern might have a little more talent, but the slow down pace and solid D from Samford should keep this close. Don't be scared off by Samford's 22 point performance against Ohio State. As we saw today, OSU is solid.

[EaglesPhan36]

Last chance for romance.

Wyoming -7
The Cowboys lost their first road game of the season, a one point loss to a talented offensive club in Boise State. They don't face that same fire power tonight with Loyola(MT). The Lions have been lambs just about everywhere they've played this season. Loyola barely manages 54.6 ppg on 36% shooting. The Cowboys D has been stout so far, allowing 38% shooting & 72.2 ppg. The Wyoming offense is proficient with 85.5 ppg on 48% shooting. Loyola yields 70.6 ppg on 45% shooting. Throw in leading scorer Vernon Teel being out with a broken foot for Loyola & points figure to be hard to come by. Not good news against a team like Wyoming that has scored well just about everywhere. Cowboys should be able to pull away late.

[EaglesPhan36]

SUNDAY: 12.7.08

Niagara/Loyola(MD) UNDER 144.5
*Niagara: 1.054O/.867D - 72.98 possessions
*Loyola: .964O/1.038D - 68.63 possessions
FYI, this one tips early at Noon ET/11 am CT. Niagara is a little of a hidden gem in the unders early this season, cashing 3 of 4. Most people think Niagara and right away, think offense. Rightfully so as the Purple Eagles are averaging over 76 ppg. They're a volume offense and that is reflected in their FG% which is around 43%. Defensively though is where they don't get much recognition. Niagara is holding opponents to .867 points per possession & 38% from the floor. Loyola meanwhile is not quite as efficient on offense, less than a point per possession at .964. The Greyhounds already struggle with a 65 ppg on 38% shooting, so seeing a solid Niagara D won't be a welcome sight. Defensively, Loyola's numbers play right into Niagara's averages as they yield almost 75 ppg on 44% shooting. Niagara has only given up more than 63 pts to two opponents this season. Appalachian State & Villanova. With Loyola being neither a volume offense like Appy State or chock full of studs like 'Nova, Niagara should keep them at or below their avg. If Loyola keeps Niagara at theirs, this one should finish around 140 or so & sneak under the #.

Fairfield -4.5
The Stags seem to be hitting their stride in their last three games as the offense has put up 82,78 & 76 points. Fairfield has been especially deadly from distance, hitting almost 40% there and a healthy 46% from the floor overall. That's a stark contrast to the struggles of Iona. The Gaels average just 61 ppg on about 42% shooting. Fairfield's defense hasn't been outstanding, but should be fine against Iona. The Gaels defense is tough to crack as they limit opponents to 58 ppg on 40% FG shooting, but playing on the road in conference play against one of the better MAAC teams should prove too tough. Fairfield covers late, I think.

(May have more plays after more totals are released)

[EaglesPhan36]

Florida/Florida St. OVER 137.5
Florida has been able to score in bunches this season, shooting 47% from the field and 40% from 3. For the most part, teams seem willing to play up-tempo with this crew and I think FSU will welcome that after playing slow-down against Northwestern. The Seminoles have been very good defensively, allowing just 37% from the floor. This however will be the best team that they have played with California probably ranking 2nd. They allowed 77 to Cal. Offensively, FSU is good, but not great. 69 ppg on 43% shooting. The Gators though have had trouble defensively thus far, only giving up 66 ppg, but allowing 47% shooting and close to 40% from 3. They've also allowed 150 points in their last 2. Florida is 1.15 pts per possession. FSU is 1.005 per possesion. Florida's D is just under a point per possession, while FSU is at .896. Both teams average 69.5 possesions. This game feels like it should land in the 140s.

[EaglesPhan36]

MONDAY: 12.8.08

Indiana State/Ohio OVER 136
Short & sweet. These 2 teams combine for about 137 possessions per game and both have point per possession averages at over one point. Do the math 137 times anything over one, equals more than 136! Ohio games have also gone over this afternoon's total in 5 straight. The Bobcats offense should match up well against an Indiana State crew giving up over 73 ppg. ISU meanwhile is off their best offensive game of 68 pts on 47% shooting and 50% from distance. Ohio yields a little more than 71 ppg. Both teams were blown out by Louisville, so looking at their mutual match-ups with Lamar might provide some insight. Ohio & Lamar played to a 143 total. ISU & Lamar played to 134 (1st half featured 80 pts). This should be a battle throughout with the biggest question being how each team responds to their 3rd game in 3 days. Looking for this to sneak into the upper 130s or 140-ish range.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Goodluck today EaglesPhan

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. I need it after yesterday. Hate those days. Go 5-1 one day, then can't just take a slight loss the next at 1-2, gotta go 0-3!

[MoneySportsGuy]

Yeah , capping is not easy let me tell you!

[EaglesPhan36]

SOB. Man, when I hit a losing skid, I do it right. Hitting 4 straight losses today easily with this wack over bet not having a chance in hell. Gonna take my losses and go home until tomorrow. I was hoping to get Hawaii at +23, but with how my picks have been the last two days -- time to step back.

[EaglesPhan36]

TUESDAY: 12.9.08

Toledo +5
If Wright State were at full strength, this should probably be a pick 'em game. For Toledo to get points with Wright State missing their top scorer, the points are a huge plus here. Toledo has not played up to its capability this season as some had them picked to finish as high as 2nd in the MAC's West Division. They've been fairly pedestrian offensively with a 59 ppg on 43.6% FG shooting. Wright State is giving up almost 67 ppg on 44% shooting and 42.6% from beyond the arc. On the other side, without Vaughn Duggins (11.8 ppg) - Wright State may find it tough to get beyond their average of 56 ppg on 36% shooting. Toledo's D is not great, a 67 ppg avg on 44% shooting. Still, Wright State doesn't look like they will take advantage with their current group of players. Toledo has an excellent shot to win this outright if their offense - especially Tyrone Kent & Jonathan Amos - can carry the load.

CS-Fullerton -2
You can actually get Fullerton plus points right now in some spots. Even better. Still, I think the Titans are the pick against Montana State. The best player you still don't know - Josh Akognon - leads CSF with 24.6 ppg. CSF remains a volume offense, shoot first - ask later as they put up 77 ppg, but shoot just 43%. They can get hot from distance, although they average just 34% there. Should be a good match though against a Grizzlies D that gives up 75 ppg on 45% shooting. Montana State for their part on offense do put up almost 71 ppg, but shoot just 41% from the floor and 31% from 3. CSF gives up points, but has been tougher on the opposition. They yield 75 ppg, but limit foes to 41% shooting. With Akognon locked in right now & capable of carrying the team any night, the Titans should get by Montana State here for a road win.

Idaho State/Wisconsin OVER 119.5
Two offenses here who average more than a point per possession. ISU gets 1.03 pts per possession while Wisconsin does work at 1.116 pts per possession. That is especially impressive considering the Badgers only average about 63 possessions per game. Idaho State gets almost ten more possessions at 73. Defensively, Wisconsin yields .941 per possession & ISU .988 per possession. Crunching the numbers, if they reach anywhere near their averages - this game should ease past the posted number which just seems a shake or two low to me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Marist +17
Another hunch play here. Siena is studly and the class of the Metro Atlantic, but Marist seems to play them within this line - or at least they have over the past 5 years no matter the make-up of the teams. Visitor has covered I believe in 13 of the last 17 in this series. We'll see.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn I thought Marist was gonna get an easy cover and I get lucky they push. They had a 50-48 lead in the 2nd half and then got smoked 29-7. Sheesh. That Toledo/Wright State game easily worst of the year.

[EaglesPhan36]

This losing streak is getting hilarious. Lost the over by 2 points. CSF in the process of blowing what was a 9 point half time lead, now trailing by 5 in the 2nd. Good gawd.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fade me till I pick one correctly.

WEDNESDAY: 12.10.08

New Mexico (PICK)
Not alot goes into this pick for me other than San Diego is still adjusting to life without their best player, Brandon Johnson. The Toreros struggled to score with him and continued to without him, losing to San Jose State at home in their last game. New Mexico has been up & down this year, but they do shoot the ball well at 47% from the floor and almost 38% from beyond the arc. They also possess a stingy defense like SD, limiting foes to 38% shooting and 66 ppg. Like the Lobos to win an ugly one.

[Dfjay9]

Damnit! I liked NM haha :P

[MoneySportsGuy]

Eagles,

Man dont know what happend with Marist, everybody and their mother was on Siena, I saw that line thought owow they can cover that and then boom 2nd half horrible.

Same with Toledo, 35 points total for a game? @#$#@$ sick

[EaglesPhan36]

Northeastern/Harvard UNDER 134
I just kept seeing this number climbing higher and well, I think this one is a high 120s game or even low 130s that still gives this number a shot. Both teams are under a point per possession. NE at .986 & Harvard at .949. Both defenses though do give up just a bit more than a point per possession. NE at 1.02. Harvard at 1.06. They average about 129 possessions per game with just below a pt. per possession average between them. The Huskies have had trouble consistently scoring, shooting just 40% from the floor. Harvard is better at almost 46%. Both defenses give up 65-66 ppg. Still, Harvard totals have only gone over this number twice and that was against better offensive competition. Only 1 of Northeastern's 5 road games has surpassed 134. All have been close as I expect this one to be. WTF!

[EaglesPhan36]

Really. Funny because it's sad. Sad because it's true. Northeastern/Harvard - funny.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm just wondering how New Mexico is gonna F me here in the end. It's probably gonna be a 3 pointer at the buzzer. I mean what else is left?

[EaglesPhan36]

THURSDAY: 12.11.08
Idaho State +12
Hard for me to believe the oddsmakers set the line here. Idaho State has been very competitive this season despite their 2-6 record. The Bengals nearly rallied to beat Wisconsin on the road the other night and has gone to OT twice on the road this season against Hawaii and Boise State. They also KO'ed a decent Utah team at home. Adequate on offense, ISU will need Ammorrow Morgan to lead the way again. The team's leading scorer has been MIA in the last four games or so after starting out red hot with games of 12, 26, 31 & 20. UW-Green Bay may be 5-2, but they have not shot well. Just 38% from the field, they actually shoot 3s better than thier overall FG%. Idaho State has been good defensively on the perimeter, allowing just 28% from distance. UWGB has won five straight with the last two by 11 points each over offensively challenged Wright State & Detroit. The Bengals should have confidence from their near miss against Wisconsin and I like them to stay within range of the Phoenix.

UW-Milwaukee +14
This one seems a bit off to me. Miami (OH) is a solid ball club, but their offense remains in question. The Redhawks are shooting just 42% from the field (42% from 3) and averaging 64.6 ppg. Their D is the reason they are winning, allowing just 61 ppg on 42.7% shooting. Milwaukee has not shot particularly great, averaging just under 43% from the floor (36.7% from 3), but they do put up a high volume of shots and get over 70 ppg. Milwaukee should be ready for the half court/defensive minded style of Miami after playing Wisconsin, Wright State & Detroit in succession. If they can find some success beyond the arc, I think they can stay within this number.

[EaglesPhan36]

Man this week has been ROUGH. Guarantee you if you want to make money, FADE ME until I pick one right ... please continue. At least I can provide some sort of service to humanity!

1-10-1 in my last 12 picks. After I had blown by the .500 mark and didn't want to look back. Here I am again. Wow.

[EaglesPhan36]

FRIDAY: 12.12.08 (COSTANZA MODE)
Wright State/Arkansas-Little Rock OVER 115
That's right, it's full blown George Costanza time. Time to do the opposite of what I think because everything I have thought this week has been shit. Wright State. UALR. Defense. Defense. Defense. Low scoring. Under. Wrong. Costanza it and we go over. Numbers actually back this up as not a bad try. Wright State averages 63.03 possessions. UALR averages 66.08. Wright State is .858 pts per possession offensively. UALR is .980 pts per possesion on D. UALR on offense is .993 pts. per possesion while Wright State is .953 pts per possession on D. Put it in a blender and this should come out in the high 110s or near 120. COOOO-stanza!

[EaglesPhan36]

COOOO-stanza! Somehow got this. After 70 first half points, needed two in the last 4 seconds to earn a win. Sweet sailing from here.

[EaglesPhan36]

SATURDAY: 12.13.08
Harvard +10
This may be the Ivy league against a bigger conference, but talent wise I don't view this as a double digit dog match-up. Harvard is legit on offense under Tommy Amaker, averaging 67 ppg on a solid 45.7% shooting. GW will pose a good test on D as they allow just 38.7% shooting. Offensively, GW has shown the ability to connect from 3 as they hit over 39% there and 42% overall from the floor. Big weakness so far for the Colonials though is FT shooting at under 60%. That could be big here.

Seton Hall -12
Just a simple match-up of good offense against bad offense with Seton Hall & St.Peter's. The Hall is going to get thrown around once they get into Big East play, so a chance to beat up on the poor shooting Peacocks should be enough motivation here. Seton Hall is averaging almost 80 ppg while St.Peter's struggles to get 60 most nights. That's dumb guy math. And I'm dumb enough to follow.

[kcjhawk]

EaglesPhan36,

What do you think about Wyoming -3?

[EaglesPhan36]

No real thoughts on that one. Probably would take Wyoming though.

[EaglesPhan36]

Indiana/Kentucky OVER 131
Little bit of a gut call here on this one. Both teams do average over 70 possessions each. Kentucky closer to 76. I expect the Wildcats to continue their recent run of putting up points in this one and get into the 70s. In fact, I wouldn't be suprised if Gillespie ran up the score here to exact a little revenge from last year's 70-51 loss. The shoe is on the other foot right now and you can bet he'd like to give the Knetucky fans something to cheer about. Real question is can IU get to 60? If the Hoosiers find 60 in this one, I think it gets done.

Mississippi +4.5
Like getting the points here in a pretty even match-up. The Rebels have been the more offensively consistent club between the two (New Mexico). They've also done a decent job travelling this season. New Mexico has just been a bit uneven this year and their homecourt advantage has not been quite as big as usual. They've lost to Drake at home, beat Southern Miss by just 2 & lost to UCF by 1 - a UCF team Ole Miss demolished by 32. I think this one is close throughout and there is a shot Ole Miss could steal a road win if they stay even on both sides of the ball.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think I would have had more fun actually flushing the money down the toiley myself on these last two. Indiana & Kentucky had 10 points in the last 10 minutes I think. IU sucks balls, kinda like Ole Miss.

Need to go back to Costanza University.

[EaglesPhan36]

Northern Iowa/Wyoming OVER 128.5
Late add. Tipoff is 5:30pm ET. Why? Because the voices in my head told me this one would do well.

[EaglesPhan36]

East Carolina -14
Another late add. Tipoff at 7pm ET. Why? Pirates are cool. UNC-Greensboro stinks.

[EaglesPhan36]

Marist +9
Dipping back into the pool of the Red Foxes even after they boned an easy cover against Siena last time, but salvaged a push. Why go here? Cleveland State is the Vikings. Marist is the Red Foxes. Redd Foxx was a black man who wouldn't take no guff from any Nordic s.o.b. & he sure the **** wouldn't lose by double digits.

[EaglesPhan36]

Portland/BYU OVER 137
Moving on. Both these teams have the ability to score. BYU shoots better than 50% from the floor and has been killing it at home all year. Portland's D is leaky enough to allow BYU to close in on their average of 81 ppg. Portland should be good enough for the rest with some garbage time buckets in what might become a run-away game for the Coogs in the 2nd half.

[winchester]

I was pulling for Marist just cause of your write-up.

[EaglesPhan36]

Hehe. Yeah the black man took a beating there. That IU/Kentucky game would have gone over if IU showed up in the 1st half like they did in the 2nd. Got one more that will hopefully be for the winning day. At the least, I've gotten some winners today so hopefully I'm back on track.

Eastern Washington +3
The Eagles have been better than most expected early in the season. They've got a couple decent road wins already over UC-Irvine & Portland. They got blown out by two Big 10 teams on the road, Illinois & Minnesota. Hawaii meanwhile has been playing tight games at home all season. They have 3 wins by a combined 12 points and they lost to San Francisco & CS-Fullerton. The two teams are pretty much dead even in most statistical categories. Slight edge to E.Washington in 3 point shooting. Any time you got a toss-up, go with the points and a mascot that does have the word rainbow in it.

[EaglesPhan36]

SUNDAY: 12.14.08
Niagara +5
Two good ATS teams here. The Purple Eagles are 6-1 ATS & S.Florida is 4-1. Why? Niagara Falls is beautiful & South Florida is the land that God pounds with hurricanes. So, apparently God loves Niagara. That and they shoot FTs a bit better.