John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread

[Mrscofield25]

So, what have you guys done today and how's the weather in the US - started to snow yet?

[J.M. Disciple]

No, you said "seize"! But as far as the 13 unit comments go, if you feel -13 units in chase 110, and -7 units in NHL Gold is bankrupting people, then yes, poor little Austin gets bankrupted very easily. Since the majority of the people in here use a 50 or 100 unit bankroll budget, I would say that absolutely no one is even remotely close to busting out by playing these systems to date. But as I said earlier, you just like mimicking the other two trolls with data and facts that are completely inaccurate. You think every question in every thread has to be answered by you, regardless of who they are directed at, and with responses that are just so stupid at times. You constantly pop in here to let everybody what you're doing at the moment, or what your personal "take" is, like it's your homo facebook page, and nobody cares. Just More Drivel, you are merely an attention whore. By the way, post #2962 wasn't directed at you either.

No, you said "seize"! But as far as the 13 unit comments go, if you feel -13 units in chase 110, and -7 units in NHL Gold is bankrupting people, then yes, poor little Austin gets bankrupted very easily. Since the majority of the people in here use a 50 or 100 unit bankroll budget, I would say that absolutely no one is even remotely close to busting out by playing these systems to date. But as I said earlier, you just like mimicking the other two trolls with data and facts that are completely inaccurate. You think every question in every thread has to be answered by you, regardless of who they are directed at, and with responses that are just so stupid at times. You constantly pop in here to let everybody what you're doing at the moment, or what your personal "take" is, like it's your homo facebook page, and nobody cares. Just More Drivel, you are merely an attention whore. By the way, post #2962 wasn't directed at you either.

Why post the same thing twice? People don't care what you or I say, do you really need them to read it twice? Do you suffer from narcissistic personality?

[BuckeyeKaptn]

So, what have you guys done today and how's the weather in the US - started to snow yet?

Yep, it sucks but at least Cleveland isn't supposed to get the 27 inches that Boston is supposed to get!!!

[Mrscofield25]

Yep, it sucks but at least Cleveland isn't supposed to get the 27 inches that Boston is supposed to get!!!

Yeah, I heard it this evening. It's insane. First Sandy and now storm and snow. Insane weather!

[dlunc3]

guess v1 is the only one worth playing these days

[adidas-b 88]

thank god for buying 3 pts on the GS series! It was a crazy game.

[kdavis]

guess v1 is the only one worth playing these days

I have been playing this JM system since 2008 and to be honest with you, the version 1 system is the the only one that has won consistently for me. I have tried all of the different versions with all the different scenarios but I have never won as much as I did in the 2008-2009 NBA season playing just the version 1 games. Seems like there was a whole lot less stress involved too. I actually looked forward to an upcoming version 1 series. Now when a version 2 or 3 series comes up I seem to hold my breath for the whole series. I am definitely done with the version 3 series and will probably drop the version 2 series after this season. I will be going back to playing only the V1 games and just increase my unit size per game. Whew! I feel better already.

[Huego]

anyone have the historical record breakdown on the different versions?

[KennyM10]

Unfortunately when wallco made this "JM" thread it was just to boost a chance to sell his own losing system Now that it failed again he resorts to arguing. Notice how there is a V3 win and another winner and the only guy without a play is the guy calling this the jm thread.

[KennyM10]

Kdavis why try to explain to someone that cannot understand.

[petters72]

thank god for buying 3 pts on the GS series! It was a crazy game.

First time I bought 3 points...feels really, really nice.

[knugen]

How many losses can we have with the 7/5 and still get any profit?
now there is a loss every other game

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 49-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -13.30 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 27-24
(B) 14-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: HOU (-35.91 u), ORL (-26.39 u)


Games for (2/9/13):
#52 Golden State (+5½) @ Dallas (A) (8:35 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[thelimit0310]

How many losses can we have with the 7/5 and still get any profit?
now there is a loss every other game

Depends on the amount of plays we get and if the win rate runs around. 2003-4 season had 13 losses and still finished +35 units. It's hard to call in a system where you can recover your losses so easily.

[thelimit0310]

7/5 Plays FEB 8

Golden State +3.5 vs Memphis - Bet 2

7/5 Plays FEB 9

No Plays

Results: -7.36
Bet 1: 17-16
Bet 2: 8-8
Utah 11/2
Portland 11/25
Boston 12/14
Houston 1/9
Minnesota 1/9
LA Lakers 1/20
Orlando 1/28
Golden State 2/5

Have a Question about 7/5?
Click here for your Answer

[adidas-b 88]

Kdavis why try to explain to someone that cannot understand.

I agree...

[Wilba]

I have been playing this JM system since 2008 and to be honest with you, the version 1 system is the the only one that has won consistently for me. I have tried all of the different versions with all the different scenarios but I have never won as much as I did in the 2008-2009 NBA season playing just the version 1 games. Seems like there was a whole lot less stress involved too. I actually looked forward to an upcoming version 1 series. Now when a version 2 or 3 series comes up I seem to hold my breath for the whole series. I am definitely done with the version 3 series and will probably drop the version 2 series after this season. I will be going back to playing only the V1 games and just increase my unit size per game. Whew! I feel better already.

That's the one thing I've never understood about why the limit weights V1, V2, and V3 series' for the same unit bet amounts in his 7/5 method. You are right in thinking that V1 is hugely stronger than V3, not just this year but every other year too on average. Speaking approximately and again based on past results V2 is actually just as good as V1, but there is a massive difference between the performance of the out of conference road trips compared to in conference. No idea where it is now as it was over a year since I posted it, but in a thread last year or the year before I posted very detailed stats over a 10 year period (with about 1000 samples of road trips) showing the huge difference in the performances of the different versions. Limit what was your reasoning for playing the in conference for same weighting as the out of conference? From memory V3 only made a very humble profit when playing buying 3 points, and only broke even when playing without buying the points. Would have to check my records/old post to confirm that, but I know I ruled it out of the things that I play, and wouldn't have done that without a good reason. Did you filter out the V3 games in 7/5 and compare the results?

[kdavis]

You guy"s are going to think I am crazy for having done this and looking back at it now I probably was. During the 2008 - 2009 NBA season I would look for a night when there were (2) Version 1 "B" games going the same night. I would take HALF of my bankroll and put half of that on 1 "B" game and the other half on the other "B" game. Two "B" games lost in the same night only once while doing this, and that was early on in this wild experiment. If one won and the other lost, I would only lose the juice. I made so much, so fast doing this that the rush from it almost got scary. My bankroll grew so fast that it got to the point that I was putting so much on these games that I literally couldn't handle the pressure anymore. I finally scaled way back and it became fun again. I still do this every so often, but only on games that I do a little bit of handicapping and ONLY on Version 1 games. Just a little something to think about if you decide to play only Version 1 games. I still don't recommend doing it with risking half of your bankroll though.

[bauerranch]

You guy"s are going to think I am crazy for having done this and looking back at it now I probably was. During the 2008 - 2009 NBA season I would look for a night when there were (2) Version 1 "B" games going the same night. I would take HALF of my bankroll and put half of that on 1 "B" game and the other half on the other "B" game. Two "B" games lost in the same night only once while doing this, and that was early on in this wild experiment. If one won and the other lost, I would only lose the juice. I made so much, so fast doing this that the rush from it almost got scary. My bankroll grew so fast that it got to the point that I was putting so much on these games that I literally couldn't handle the pressure anymore. I finally scaled way back and it became fun again. I still do this every so often, but only on games that I do a little bit of handicapping and ONLY on Version 1 games. Just a little something to think about if you decide to play only Version 1 games. I still don't recommend doing it with risking half of your bankroll though.

Boy I have done some crazy things but never that- glad you survived. I would of lost it all the first night

[KennyM10]

Quiz, when was the last time wallco won a game?

[KennyM10]

Guys can we please limit responses to one or two sentences, it took me a few minutes to find wallcos big pick for Saturday was a blow out loser on Golden State.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 49-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -13.30 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

(2/9/13):
#52 Golden State (+5½) (A) - Loss

v1 Plays
(A) 27-25
(B) 14-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: HOU (-35.91 u), ORL (-26.39 u)


Games for (2/10/13):
#52 Resumes (B) on 2/12/13
#53 Portland @ Orlando (+3) (A) (6:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[BCC585]

Quiz, when was the last time wallco won a game?

We're still waiting for your thread of picks.....

[thelimit0310]

7/5 Plays FEB 9

No Plays

7/5 Plays FEB 10

No Plays

Results: -7.36
Bet 1: 17-16
Bet 2: 8-8
Utah 11/2
Portland 11/25
Boston 12/14
Houston 1/9
Minnesota 1/9
LA Lakers 1/20
Orlando 1/28
Golden State 2/5

Have a Question about 7/5?
Click here for your Answer

[thelimit0310]

It wouldn't be the 7/5 if I used different unit weights for each version! As far as disregarding V3, the 7/5 is a playing method of the JM system, so I never really factored different versions into it when I was testing it, I always had in mind that all 3 versions would be used. Buying points, only 1 season in recent memory would have caused a net loss in units for V3, this was 2005-2006, and many seasons are equal with V1. Granted more losses come from V3 it also allows for more qualifying plays (most of any version) and wins to offset this. For example last year there were 4 losses, 3 of them were from V3, removing V3 would have taken away those 3 losses however it would have removed enough wins to make it a net loss of units (this wasn't hard to determine either, a lot of units came from V3). I expect that trend would have continued, especially if other years have more losses on other versions, but I can look deeper into it. The system isn't perfect and I've already got a few things to consider for next year in improvements, including more testing of the 1-7/5 Wallco suggested.

[knugen]

anyone gonna post todays play?

Houston are a v3, A bet tonight.

BOL all

[stevex]

JM Traditional


2/10/2013


V1


Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 31-1-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 32-1
Current series pending: 0


V2


Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 19-3
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 19-3
Current series pending: 0


V3


Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 43-4-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 48-3
Current series pending: 1


1. Houston Rockets A Bet -6 @ Sacramento Kings
Houston Rockets A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Sacramento Kings

[play4win]

i really hope houston don't make playoffs! just pathetic.
you can't even stop a lil midget without fouling?
obviously the ref whistle all the call on him

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 50-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: -12.30 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-1.10 units)

(2/10/13):
#53 Orlando (+2½) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 28-25
(B) 14-10
(C) 7-3
(D) 1-2
Losses: HOU (-35.91 u), ORL (-26.39 u)


Games for (2/11/13):
#52 Resumes (B) on 2/12/13
#54 Boston @ Charlotte (+4) (A) (7:05 pm EST)
#55 Washington @ Milwaukee (M/L) (A) (8:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[Wilba]

and many seasons are equal with V1...I expect that trend would have continued"...

I have to agree to disagree with you there - for ten years V3 was vastly inferior to V2 and V3. I very much doubt that will change anytime soon as 1000+ samples is generally a pretty reliable indicator.

I'm aware that the occasional season V3 does perform very well, but what you say in the next sentence is exactly what I am getting at - for me a very good V3 season is only a trend and not a historically expected event. I strongly suggest that this would be a really good way to improve 7/5 (not saying that it's not already good - I'm sure that it is). If V3 plays were to stay in there fair enough, but to me there is no justification for betting plays which historically have a hugely reduced win % for the same unit value as other stronger plays.

[thelimit0310]

The "trend continuing" in that case was a net loss of units by removing V3 from the system, not being equal with V1. As for what you suggest I'll have to go back and look at the seasons before I make any sort of drastic decision like that. All I have so far is last season looked at, where getting rid of V3 caused a loss of units.

The justification is that many of our wins come from V3 in the first place, to lower your unit amount is to shoot yourself in the foot. 3 V3 losses @ 21.67 a loss / 6 (average of 7 and 5) shows a rough estimate that only ~11 V3 wins are needed all season to make those 3 losses worth keeping in the system. Which it turns out was the case. The trend continuing that I mentioned was in response to this.

I'm not dismissing what you say, I will look into it but until I look over the other seasons I would suggest to continue to play the 7/5 as is, any type of improvements aside it has made over +750 units and definitely works as is.

[thelimit0310]

7/5 Plays FEB 10

No Plays

7/5 Plays FEB 11

No Plays

Results: -7.36
Bet 1: 17-16
Bet 2: 8-8
Utah 11/2
Portland 11/25
Boston 12/14
Houston 1/9
Minnesota 1/9
LA Lakers 1/20
Orlando 1/28
Golden State 2/5

Houston Bet 1 takes place tomorrow 2/12

Have a Question about 7/5?
Click here for your Answer

[Mrscofield25]

Been pretty silent in here since Friday. Nice that no one is arguing.

[njb5572]

Shut up mrs. cofield

[stevex]

We bust balls. Its all fun and games. Makes the thread a bit more entertaining