NBA Season is real real close!!!!!

Dark Horse · 10-24-08, 11:30 PM

If you ever see me in this NBA dump, talking about anything else than zebra stats, show me the door. Kick me out.

The zebra tendencies WILL outweigh the player qualities.

fearless · 10-25-08, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

If you ever see me in this NBA dump, talking about anything else than zebra stats, show me the door. Kick me out.

The zebra tendencies WILL outweigh the player qualities.

Are you talking about ATS or SU? I agree with you in general but if you have a determined Spurs team playing at home against the Grizzlies, the refs can't stop the Spurs from winning outright. ATS might be another story. Do you agree?

Dark Horse · 10-25-08, 01:53 PM

ATS.

New season, but these are last year's tendencies:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/statistics/2006-2007/referee_ats.html

Idea is to have two out of three refs with the same habits.

Some refs are stable from season to season, others may flip from one extreme to another. In L3 years Mike Callahan has been biggest road ref, finishing dead first (last on home ref sheet) twice! Joe DeRosa flipped from the next biggest road ref in 2005-06 to the biggest home ref since.

fearless · 10-25-08, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

ATS.

New season, but these are last year's tendencies:

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/statistics/2006-2007/referee_ats.html

Idea is to have two out of three refs with the same habits.

Some refs are stable from season to season, others may flip from one extreme to another. In L3 years Mike Callahan has been biggest road ref, finishing dead first (last on home ref sheet) twice! Joe DeRosa flipped from the next biggest road ref in 2005-06 to the biggest home ref since.

I'm with you on this. Remember last year's finals? I got on board with you then and I'm gonna keep this thing rolling. Thanks!

fearless · 10-25-08, 09:56 PM

Dark Horse,

One question, in your opinion does vegas adjust the lines based on who the refs will be? For example, if they can see that there's some huge homer refs on a particular game, wouldn't they take that information into account when adjusting the spread? Have you seen evidence for that? If so, when are the lines adjusted by vegas, when the lines are made or as soon as the refs are announced to the public (or does vegas have advanced info about this)? Or does vegas not take the refs into consideration at all when adjusting the spread?

Dark Horse · 10-26-08, 01:08 AM

I'm sure good linesmakers are aware of any stat worth considering. My guess is that Vegas would not adjust the line to a ref, though. That would start to look real strange real fast. Imagine a three point difference following a ref around the country. It would be easier to adjust a line if a book got uneven action.

fearless · 10-26-08, 02:48 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

I'm sure good linesmakers are aware of any stat worth considering. My guess is that Vegas would not adjust the line to a ref, though. That would start to look real strange real fast. Imagine a three point difference following a ref around the country. It would be easier to adjust a line if a book got uneven action.

That can help put us one step ahead of vegas then. I mean, if their line for a particular game is -5 for a home team no matter who the refs are and we know we've homer refs, that gives a nice edge, wouldn't you say?

THEGREAT30 · 10-26-08, 03:56 AM

Looking forward to the season. Not big on future props, but I might look into 1 or 2 pertaining to team wins if they have those out there. Looking forward to seeing what Portland, Miami, Chicago and teams like that can do. The east is gonna be better than advertised Chicago, Miami, Atlanta, and Washington are gonna be battling all year long for those 7 and 8 spots in the east.

Dark Horse · 10-27-08, 12:37 PM

Originally posted by fearless

That can help put us one step ahead of vegas then. I mean, if their line for a particular game is -5 for a home team no matter who the refs are and we know we've homer refs, that gives a nice edge, wouldn't you say?

There definitely are some refs worth following. The ones that have shown consistent tendencies over the years.

And combining records of the three refs on a game can be useful as well.

This is the most cynical approach to the NBA. I love it.