After reading Crimson Queen pick Phx tomorrow as one of his 2-unit plays, my interest was piqued enough that I decided to research the card.
Keep in mind that this is just a brief analysis and anything is possible in sports wagering. However, I do think it's too generous to give Phx 10 pts and here are some reasons why.
Feel free to post any comments, critiques, etc.
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As fave LA scores 83.6 and allows 75 on average
As dog, Phx scores 78.1 and allows 89.2 on average
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After 15pt loss, Phx is 2-1 ATS
No applicable record for LA
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Day Games
LA 2-3 ATS
Phx 1-3 ATS
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Against under .500 opponents, LA is 0-4 ATS in AWAY games and 4-7 overall.
Against over .500 opponents, Phx is 1-2 ATS in HOME games and 4-3 ATS overall.
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After a win, LA is 6-5-1 ATS
When playing an opponent that is coming off a loss, LA is 2-4-1 ATS
After a loss, Phx is 5-7 ATS
When playing an opponent that is coming off a win, Phx is 3-2 ATS
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After scoring 75+ LA is 6-6 ATS
After allowing 75 or less, LA is 5-0-1 ATS
After scoring less than 75, Phx is 1-3 ATS
After allowing 75+, Phx is 6-9 ATS
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vs Western Conference:
LA scores 82.7 and allows 80.5 on average
Phx scores 77.2 and allows 88.1 on average
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Phx has lost the last two games this season against the Sparks by a margin of 11 and 9.
Phx has the 11th and 12th off before playing Seattle before the break. This may give them yet another incentive to give more effort.
LA will have one day off before visiting Indiana who is second in the East at 9-6. LA, like many teams in all sports, may have trouble getting excited over a losing team and may already have their sights on playing a more 'worthy' opponent in Ind with just one day's rest.
This could open the door for a possible back door cover by Phx. They may not win the match; however, pride could keep them from giving up a double-digit loss.
Olympian Candace Parker (LA) will most likely play and she has been averaging about 30 minutes per game, but the question remains how much of an effort will she put out tomorrow?
Her fellow Olympian, Diana Tausari, has not played the last 14 games due to a strained hip flexor. Being in Phoenix tomorrow, this may play in Parker's mind. Will she risk a possible injury with London just around the corner...? I think there is good possibility that she will play on the conservative side.
As for LA's Toliver, she has clearly done well against Phx. She has performed season/career highs against Phx on June 23 with 10 field goals and 4 offensive rebounds. On June 8 of this year, she reached season/career highs against Phx with 9 assists.
However, note that on the following game against Phx on June 23, Toliver was held to 4 assists. That's less than half of what she accomplished on June 8. Does Phx have a plan to limit her field goals and offensive rebounds as well? If their coaching staff have half a brain and an ounce of motivation to keep their jobs, I think the answer is yes.
Also, Toliver played the full 40 minutes against Atlanta on Sunday
By defeating Atlanta on Sunday, LA broke a six-game losing streak as well as ending a very tough schedule (Minn Lynx, Seattle Shock, Atlanta Dream) with a perfect 3-0 in a four-day span.
This leads me to believe the Sparks are in a good spot for a let-down performance. Sure, they will most likely win straight up against the Mercury...but by double digits...?
I suspect the Sparks see tomorrow as game against a less worthy opponent in which they have several reasons to do just enough to get the win. I also suspect Phx is playing for revenge and pride so they can take the Olympic break off with some semblance of dignity.
I'm going to check my filters tomorrow and make a decision. At this time, I am leaning Phx +10.
Keep in mind that this is just a brief analysis and anything is possible in sports wagering. However, I do think it's too generous to give Phx 10 pts and here are some reasons why.
Feel free to post any comments, critiques, etc.
**********************
As fave LA scores 83.6 and allows 75 on average
As dog, Phx scores 78.1 and allows 89.2 on average
**********************
After 15pt loss, Phx is 2-1 ATS
No applicable record for LA
**********************
Day Games
LA 2-3 ATS
Phx 1-3 ATS
**********************
Against under .500 opponents, LA is 0-4 ATS in AWAY games and 4-7 overall.
Against over .500 opponents, Phx is 1-2 ATS in HOME games and 4-3 ATS overall.
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After a win, LA is 6-5-1 ATS
When playing an opponent that is coming off a loss, LA is 2-4-1 ATS
After a loss, Phx is 5-7 ATS
When playing an opponent that is coming off a win, Phx is 3-2 ATS
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After scoring 75+ LA is 6-6 ATS
After allowing 75 or less, LA is 5-0-1 ATS
After scoring less than 75, Phx is 1-3 ATS
After allowing 75+, Phx is 6-9 ATS
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vs Western Conference:
LA scores 82.7 and allows 80.5 on average
Phx scores 77.2 and allows 88.1 on average
**********************
Phx has lost the last two games this season against the Sparks by a margin of 11 and 9.
Phx has the 11th and 12th off before playing Seattle before the break. This may give them yet another incentive to give more effort.
LA will have one day off before visiting Indiana who is second in the East at 9-6. LA, like many teams in all sports, may have trouble getting excited over a losing team and may already have their sights on playing a more 'worthy' opponent in Ind with just one day's rest.
This could open the door for a possible back door cover by Phx. They may not win the match; however, pride could keep them from giving up a double-digit loss.
Olympian Candace Parker (LA) will most likely play and she has been averaging about 30 minutes per game, but the question remains how much of an effort will she put out tomorrow?
Her fellow Olympian, Diana Tausari, has not played the last 14 games due to a strained hip flexor. Being in Phoenix tomorrow, this may play in Parker's mind. Will she risk a possible injury with London just around the corner...? I think there is good possibility that she will play on the conservative side.
As for LA's Toliver, she has clearly done well against Phx. She has performed season/career highs against Phx on June 23 with 10 field goals and 4 offensive rebounds. On June 8 of this year, she reached season/career highs against Phx with 9 assists.
However, note that on the following game against Phx on June 23, Toliver was held to 4 assists. That's less than half of what she accomplished on June 8. Does Phx have a plan to limit her field goals and offensive rebounds as well? If their coaching staff have half a brain and an ounce of motivation to keep their jobs, I think the answer is yes.
Also, Toliver played the full 40 minutes against Atlanta on Sunday
By defeating Atlanta on Sunday, LA broke a six-game losing streak as well as ending a very tough schedule (Minn Lynx, Seattle Shock, Atlanta Dream) with a perfect 3-0 in a four-day span.
This leads me to believe the Sparks are in a good spot for a let-down performance. Sure, they will most likely win straight up against the Mercury...but by double digits...?
I suspect the Sparks see tomorrow as game against a less worthy opponent in which they have several reasons to do just enough to get the win. I also suspect Phx is playing for revenge and pride so they can take the Olympic break off with some semblance of dignity.
I'm going to check my filters tomorrow and make a decision. At this time, I am leaning Phx +10.