OKC ML for 3 Units

[SparJMU]

Big Picture: I understand how good the Spurs are, and I understand that they are 10-0 in the playoffs. I believe (and really hope) they will win it all this year. I also understand that OKC was on the same playing field as San Antonio all year long, and they were 8-1 in the playoffs before they had to play two games on the road against the Spurs. San Antonio is a well oiled machine with all star veterans who won't get rattled on the road, but they still rely on a a lot of youth (Green, Leonard, Neal) and they are not immune to a letdown on the road. OKC is one of the best home court advantages in the NBA.

Matchup: Scotty Brooks finally realized in the 4th quarter of game 2 that he needs to go with smaller lineups. When OKC plays with 4 guards and Ibaka, they can create some serious mismatches for the Spurs (Yes Simmons wrote this yesterday but it was obvious before then). Kendrick Perkins really has no place in this series. They brought traded for him to beat LA, now they need to go athletic against SAN. Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson have been great on Durant, but we all know some of that solid defense will turn into personal fouls in OKC.

Other: For all your conspiracy theorists out there, don't you think the NBA wants this series to go 5-7 games? OKC is loaded with up and coming superstars, they need national exposure and this series is perfect for that. A Spurs sweep would be very boring.

This line opened at OKC -3 and has moved all the way to -4, always a good sign for an OKC backer.

Since 2005, looking at all conference finals, I only see 4 times that the higher seed has begun the series with a 2-0 lead. All four times the lower seed stole game 3 at home.

2007 SAN-UTAH and DET-CLE
2008 LAL-SAN
2010 LAL-PHO

OKC ML -170 means OKC has to win this game 63% of the time to break even. I believe they win this particular game at a rate higher than 63%. I am not calling this a 10 unit lock of the year, but I believe OKC deserves a 5.4 to win 3 unit play in this situation.

[Tofudog]

I think your right. At the very least they will give OKC some extra free throws like in the game that the Lakers won against them. I still wouldn't take OKC -4. Instead, Im going with the under, which I made a thread for.

Also, I thought I'd say that Gary Neal is like 28 or 29, its just his second year in the NBA (or maybe third, but I think second)

[SparJMU]

Interesting I knew Neal was a rookie last year, I had no idea he was already 28. I just looked him up and he played professionally in Europe for a few years. So erase him from my original comment. Green and Leonard are still youngsters though.

Good luck with the Under.

[SparJMU]

Line is up to OKC -4 now. -195 ML.

[SparJMU]

Okc -4.5. -220 ml.

[SparJMU]

You're welcome.

[SparJMU]

Since Game 3 worked out as well as it did, I am just going to keep the same thread, and make the same bet on Game 6.

This series is unfolding exactly like the 2007 Pistons-Cavs series. The Pistons were the veteran #1 seed who ran deep, and they jumped out 2-0 on the up and coming Cavs. The Cavs won both at home, pulled off the upset in game 5, and finished them off in game 6. Oklahoma City and San Antonio are both great teams, but OKC has proven that not only are they more talented, but they can perform under pressure and win big games. Obviously San Antonio is going to put up a fight, and it may be worth checking the in-game lines to get an even better price, but I have faith that OKC will pull it out. I am starting with 3 units, and if OKC falls behind early on I will be adding another 3 units at a better line.

OKC ML (-220) 3 Units.

[SparJMU]

I mean can someone create a more "spot-on" thread? I would love to brag more about some Live bets I made, but since I didn't post them I won't go there.

Don't worry guys I will keep giving you guys winners for the rest of the playoffs.

[bureK]

[parlayin]

[SparJMU]

Here we go again. The thread is currently up 6 units.

I think there are too many question marks in this series to pick a clear cut winner, but OKC will win game 1 at home. I'll spare you the long write up because we have all heard the arguments by now, but in the last 8 years, the home team is 7-1 in game 1. OKC is young and may falter on the road in this series, but they are a dominant home team. And if Miami somehow catches all the breaks and steals game 1, I will double down with confidence in game 2.

OKC-MIA Game 1 - OKC ML (-200). 4 units to win 2.

[SparJMU]

OKC all the way up to -230 now.

[SparJMU]

The thread is now up 8 units. 3 ML bets. OKC has won these three games by 20, 8, and 11.