Is the playoffs a completely different game in terms of betting?

[MoneyOnBball]

This is my first year ever betting so I'm just thinking out loud here. Feel free to respond to this with anything you want.

But the playoffs is completely different for betting than the reg season right?

The reg season is all about finding trends, knowing about player motivation, understanding which team is more rested, and maybe looking at line movement if that's your thing, etc.

The playoffs is just about who is the better team, period. It's more qualitative. You watch the games and judge the matchups with your eyes.


Or in other words, a genius number cruncher who doesn't even know what a NBA hop-step is can be more successful than an expert in basketball in the regular season (let's say this expert is a former player or something...like Kenny Smith). But Kenny Smith would do a much better job in the playoffs than this number cruncher.

What do you all think?

[rockaflocka]

regular season, playoffs are all about value , last year I made most of my money of off series bets and futures (IE Dallas to win championship, Heat to win east after game 1 in chicago) . The series lines change up and down with wins and loses- you just gotta know where to buy

[MoneyOnBball]

Good post^, placing a series bet at the right time and getting value would definitely be important.

Any one else with any thoughts on my opening post? Or does anyone want to share their first experiences betting on the playoffs and how it compared to their first time betting on the reg season?

[suicidekings]

Like you say, success in betting the playoffs is dependent on understanding HOW one team will beat another team, in terms of matchups. Statistical averages can let you down very easily. It's also very easy to over-correct when a team puts up a particularly strong or weak performance, especially early in the series so keeping a big-picture approach is key. Also, the first two rounds can offer a lot of value, but after that the lines get a LOT tougher to beat.

[bleek88]

its a whole different animal my man

[bleek88]

its all about adjustments

[byronbb]

More money coming in from the squares can give nice value fading the public. They also like to keep betting their winner, rolling over profits and upping their bets but the books are always out to find a way to get their money back. Watch the square books and how they deal to their customers and how it skews from the sharp books. If the public fav is losing at half or close to tie 2nd half fade can see very good value if you shop a line.