Can anyone explain the reverse line movement for the sixers/C's game?

BernardMadoff · 04-08-12, 06:49 PM

Dont read them and you will be better off.

Speedy88 · 04-08-12, 06:52 PM

don't pay too much attention to them. If betting games were as easy as reading "line movement" then the books would have been squashed a long time ago. I usually make a pick and then check to see if the line movement favors my pick.

A lot of times they'll move the line the wrong way to get sharp betters to bite. Less people would have been on the Sixers if the line went from +4 to +4.5 regardless of getting a better number.

sstrunks52005 · 04-08-12, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

don't pay too much attention to them. If betting games were as easy as reading "line movement" then the books would have been squashed a long time ago. I usually make a pick and then check to see if the line movement favors my pick.

A lot of times they'll move the line the wrong way to get sharp betters to bite. Less people would have been on the Sixers if the line went from +4 to +4.5 regardless of getting a better number.

this

what i do also. its nice when your picks coincide with the line movements.
if 90% of money is on celtics, books trying to play you by dropping the spread by 0.5 to get more money on 76ers

WPS2012 · 04-08-12, 08:17 PM

Thanks for the feedback. Looks to me like there are just too many variables to figuring out why lines might move the way they do. Unless you have a source behind the counter, it seems really hard to pinpoint what caused that move. Did it move because of sharps, or was it because of heavy public action, or was it sharps dropping a load of money down to get the line moved in their favor then drop even more on the opposite side of what they originally bet. I'll focus more on actually handicapping the games. Looking at matchups, injuries, etc and not as much on line movements.

WPS2012 · 04-09-12, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

don't pay too much attention to them. If betting games were as easy as reading "line movement" then the books would have been squashed a long time ago. I usually make a pick and then check to see if the line movement favors my pick.

A lot of times they'll move the line the wrong way to get sharp betters to bite. Less people would have been on the Sixers if the line went from +4 to +4.5 regardless of getting a better number.

Do you think this could be the case for tonights thunder/milwaukee matchup?? There was reverse line movement at some books with thunder opening at -3 1/2 or -3 and then dropping to -3 or -2 1/2. In my opinion I really like the thunder even though there was RLM. Do you think this is could be the books trying to manipulate so-called "sharps" to jump on milwaukee?

SpreadSniper · 04-09-12, 03:43 PM

Bucks are the play this time fella.

EVPlus · 04-09-12, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by WPS2012

Do you think this could be the case for tonights thunder/milwaukee matchup?? There was reverse line movement at some books with thunder opening at -3 1/2 or -3 and then dropping to -3 or -2 1/2. In my opinion I really like the thunder even though there was RLM. Do you think this is could be the books trying to manipulate so-called "sharps" to jump on milwaukee?

True "sharps" won't fall for tricks like that. They will, however, put in a sucker bet, get the line to move in their favor, then pound the other side.

This does NOT always happen. Sometimes, they will just place their bet and get on with their day.

I can tell you are putting a lot of stock into RLMs. As othes have stated, it can mean several things:

1) sharp money is coming in on the other side

2) books are trying to lure squares with an enticing line

3) many other variables that cannot be predicted with enough consistency

If you must use RLMs in making your calls, be sure to integrate it with other factors or you will get buried.

WPS2012 · 04-09-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by EVPlus

True "sharps" won't fall for tricks like that. They will, however, put in a sucker bet, get the line to move in their favor, then pound the other side.

This does NOT always happen. Sometimes, they will just place their bet and get on with their day.

I can tell you are putting a lot of stock into RLMs. As othes have stated, it can mean several things:

1) sharp money is coming in on the other side

2) books are trying to lure squares with an enticing line

3) many other variables that cannot be predicted with enough consistency

If you must use RLMs in making your calls, be sure to integrate it with other factors or you will get buried.

Yeah Im beginning to figure this out. Not very smart to do RLM blindly (unless you have a good source). Just too many variables to what could have caused the movement. I just always assumed if the line moves opposite then there was a considerable amount of money dropped on the opposite side. So my thinking was if someone is going to drop thousands on a game and then the line moves that direction then there is someone that knows way more than me, and I need to be on that side to. I wish it was that simple but as Speedy88 mentioned if it was that easy then books would have been outta business along time ago. Thanks for the help