I'm sorta new to NBA betting and have used this strategy a little but lately I haven't been successful at all with it. I know reverse line movement should not be done blindly. My goal is to follow the sharp money but the majority of the games that I have followed RLM and ended up betting haven't hit. Some games weren't even close to hitting and were blowouts. I know there is no magic system or strategy that produces profit, but geez some games where I tried to follow sharp money weren't even close. I'm obviously missing some things when reading lines and following RLM. Anybody have some advice on this with NBA betting or have experienced the same thing lately?
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How do you define RLM, what are your parameters for a 'system bet'? What is your sample size/What is your record?Comment -
I will only use RLM as a guide only if 80-85% or higher bets on a certain team and the spread doesn't move or become lower. Anything lower, I won't consider.Comment -
I define RLM as when the line moves the opposite direction of what the majority of the public is betting on. For example the other night I think it was the Cavs +10 or something like that against the sixers. I can't remember the exact number but somewhere between 62-66% of public bets were placed on sixers. The line then moved to +9. That would def be RLM right ? Or do I have this completely backwards? (be easy on the noobie). As far as parameters, that is something that I haven't really set in stone yet. Normally I like to look at games that have somewhere in the range of 2500-3000+ bets and I have kind of went with a public % of at least 64-70% of bets placed on one side. I wanna say for the past 10 days or so Im like 2-7 following the RLM strategy. Not very good. Fortunately I don't make huge bets, so not greatly effected by the losses.Originally posted by DividendComment -
So if 85% of the public is betting on team A and the line doesn't change then you are going with team B? Am I correct ?Originally posted by vasilli07Comment -
You'll hit around 50% using RLM, therefore it shouldnt be used.Comment -
Problem is it can't be used "situationally," and sites can't be trusted for public numbers, and you have to decide what % of the public constitutes a RLM play in the first place. Too many variables. RLM is too subjective to even define.Originally posted by BernardMadoffComment -
RLM from last night:
Minn@Char +6
Det-1.5@cle
that I remember, both winnersComment -
Exactly, some sites use different books, some use a couple, some use quite a few, and still who knows if they numbers are correct, I have a hard time believing that someone who wants my money is giving me something that is helpful, would be like the colonel giving the chicken a head's up before he kills him.Originally posted by No coincidencesComment -
Definitely in this day and age. Books have adjusted to all of the information that's now available to the public and wasn't 5-10 years ago. They've gotten smarter; sports betting isn't as easy as just blindly following whatever you may define as RLM anymore.Originally posted by BernardMadoffComment -
I won't say I will definitely hit it but I will take the game into consideration for my bets.Originally posted by WPS2012
There are other things I will take into consideration, player injuries, form and etc before deciding on a game.Comment -
A problem I have found with internet sites that present this kind of information is that 3 or 4 different sites will have extremely contradicting numbers. I understand that some sites get info from several different books and some get it from only one book, but I don't see how one website could be so extremely off from another website. I would expect some variation between sites but not as dramatic as I have seen it. Makes me question accuracy.Comment
