Interesting prop bet LAL v OKC

cwbuff44 · 03-29-12, 05:27 PM

Ibaka does their jumping. Not Aldrich...

hawley · 03-29-12, 05:32 PM

Unless I have missed something you are crazy for thinking Aldrich is in at the start of the game.

Ibaka and Perkins start the game. Aldrich sits down the other end of the bench.

Punter101 · 03-29-12, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by blanco

Lakers to score first (-115)

Bynum wins 73% of jump balls and OKC's center is white. Is this good enough to beat 15c juice?

A quick google search of "Cole Aldrich jump ball" shows him losing every jump ball on the first page, but I couldn't get a % for him.

To be conservative, we'll say Bynum wins this one 75% of the time. If the Lakers score 50% of the time once they get the jump ball (arbitrary number-if someone has a better number to use here let me know), then there is a 37.5% chance of this cashing off the bat.

That leaves 62.5%. Give 31.25% to OKC for the next possession, 15.625% chance of the Lakers hitting in their 2nd possession, and we are at 53.125% on the lakers with 15.625% left to continue diving up like this. Im sure someone could run it through a model and get an exact %, but it will be well over the 53.6% we need to win this bet to break-even. If anyone has any input/stats on scoring % by possession that would be helpful.

Am I crazy for wanting to bet this?

Speedy88 · 03-29-12, 06:35 PM

lol at this guy thinking Cole Aldrich starts for the Thunder.

If you like gambling, then go ahead and bet this. But this is pretty much a coinflip type of bet.

blanco · 03-29-12, 06:40 PM

Oops had a brain fart on OKC's jumper. Regardless though, if a guy wins 73% of jump balls, how could this be a coin flip? I obviously am not doing this math because I like to gamble, I am trying to figure out if this is a +EV spot.

blanco · 03-29-12, 06:42 PM

Ibaka is average at 49%. How can you ignore the jump ball stat and say this is a coin flip?

Judgejoebrwn · 03-29-12, 06:42 PM

Winning the jump ball would just give them the first opportunity to score. They could miss...

blanco · 03-29-12, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by Judgejoebrwn

Winning the jump ball would just give them the first opportunity to score. They could miss...

"To be conservative, we'll say Bynum wins this one 75% of the time. If the Lakers score 50% of the time once they get the jump ball (arbitrary number-if someone has a better number to use here let me know), then there is a 37.5% chance of this cashing off the bat.

That leaves 62.5%. Give 31.25% to OKC for the next possession, 15.625% chance of the Lakers hitting in their 2nd possession, and we are at 53.125% on the lakers with 15.625% left to continue diving up like this. Im sure someone could run it through a model and get an exact %, but it will be well over the 53.6% we need to win this bet to break-even. If anyone has any input/stats on scoring % by possession that would be helpful."

I am not saying the Lakers will win this bet 73% of the time. I am saying if they win the jump ball 73% of the time they will score first more than 53.6% of the time.

blanco · 03-29-12, 06:50 PM

http://thecity2.com/2012/01/05/adjusted-jump-ball-win-probability-who-are-the-best-jump-ballers-in-the-nba/

blanco · 03-29-12, 06:54 PM

If Bynum wins this jump ball 73% of the time and each team has a 50/50 chance of scoring each possession, this bet cashes 57.65% of the time.

burchfield · 03-29-12, 07:55 PM

Just take OKC and enjoy

BigDofBA · 03-29-12, 08:11 PM

These are not good bets.

I remember someone saying the Magic were a lock to score first against the Heat because Dwight Howard was doing the jump ball to start the game.

Howard won the tip, Orlando missed a shot. Lebron ran right down court and dunked it. The bet lost.

There is no rhyme or reason to betting these. Books charge juice on both so they're happy if anyone plays it period.

blanco · 03-29-12, 08:13 PM

I'm by no means saying it's a lock and of course the Lakers are going to blank the first possession a lot, but I have yet to be convinced that the logic stating "if you start with the ball 3/4 of the time you will score first more than 1/2 the time" is faulty...

yisman · 03-29-12, 08:17 PM

Originally posted by blanco

I'm by no means saying it's a lock and of course the Lakers are going to blank the first possession a lot, but I have yet to be convinced that the logic stating "if you start with the ball 3/4 of the time you will score first more than 1/2 the time" is faulty...

It isn't. If the Lakers got the ball first 75% of the time, they'd clearly score first more than 50% of the time. The question is whether that 75% is accurate or not. I think you're overstating it.

blanco · 03-29-12, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by yisman

It isn't. If the Lakers got the ball first 75% of the time, they'd clearly score first more than 50% of the time. The question is whether that 75% is accurate or not. I think you're overstating it.

http://thecity2.com/2012/01/05/adjusted-jump-ball-win-probability-who-are-the-best-jump-ballers-in-the-nba/

yisman · 03-29-12, 08:22 PM

I looked at that link and I don't see where you're getting 75%. Bynum wins less than that, and that's without taking into account OKC's jumper which again, is not Aldrich.

blanco · 03-29-12, 08:25 PM

I don't really understand the "adjusted %" either, which was 73%. I just noticed the link to last years' numbers. Bynum won 68%. If you scroll up, I mentioned OKCs jumper who is Ibaka, who had an adjusted % of 49%. Last year Ibaka won 41% of jump balls.

So updated math: 68% winner vs 41% winner

BernardMadoff · 03-29-12, 08:28 PM

Isnt it who scores first and not who wins the jump? If so its a coin flip, winning the tip only gives them possession and yes there is some edge in that, but they could simply miss and the opposing team score. I liken this to a slot bet, not enough edge for me, no bet, especially since its juiced.

yisman · 03-29-12, 08:31 PM

I'll tail this.

If you can say LA wins the tip over 65% of the time, that's enough of an edge to bet LA scores first.

Possession is a bigger deal than people make it out to be.

blanco · 03-29-12, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by BernardMadoff

Isnt it who scores first and not who wins the jump? If so its a coin flip, winning the tip only gives them possession and yes there is some edge in that, but they could simply miss and the opposing team score.

Originally posted by blanco

If Bynum wins this jump ball 73% of the time and each team has a 50/50 chance of scoring each possession, this bet cashes 57.65% of the time.

Originally posted by blanco

I'm by no means saying it's a lock and of course the Lakers are going to blank the first possession a lot, but I have yet to be convinced that the logic stating "if you start with the ball 3/4 of the time you will score first more than 1/2 the time" is faulty...

yisman · 03-29-12, 08:33 PM

Problem is, I can't get it at -115.

5 Dimes

Thu 3/29		5301 OKC scores first		<input id="editx" name="M1_12" size="4" maxlength="5"> -105
10:30PM		5302 LAL scores first		<input id="editx" name="M2_12" size="4" maxlength="5"> -125

Heritage

Team to score first in the game
40401	Oklahoma City Thunder	-105	<input id="editx" name="C_16" size="4" maxlength="5">
40402	Los Angeles Lakers	-125

SBR Book

	(OKC VS LAL) - TEAM TO SCORE FIRST IN THE GAME
1	OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER	+105<input name="text_" value="1_149762_0_105" type="checkbox">
2	LOS ANGELES LAKERS	-135

Bovada

(OKC vs LAL) - Team to score first in the game

	Oklahoma City Thunder	+105 <input value="9134339" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on Oklahoma City Thunder to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox">
	Los Angeles Lakers	-135 <input value="9134340" name="lineID" title="Click to bet on Los Angeles Lakers to win straight up" class="checkbox-pos" type="checkbox">

blanco · 03-29-12, 08:35 PM

It's -115 on sportsbook, which is what my bookie uses as his lines =/

yisman · 03-29-12, 08:37 PM

Well it's a good bet anyway if you look at the fact that most other books have it at -135.

BigDofBA · 03-29-12, 09:00 PM

So you're assuming LA will win the jump ball and score on the first possession?

I would say it's less than 50% that they score if they do get the first possession.

yisman · 03-29-12, 09:02 PM

They don't have to score on the first possession for this bet to win. That's just part of it.