Keep in mind that my picks are primarily based on market analysis and situational power rankings, the following write-ups are not exhaustive as to the factors that led to my booking each play.
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
New Orleans Hornets +2.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Hornets are my most counter-intuitive team, they are 10 full rating points better on the road. The Warriors are the same defenseless team both home and away. However, with the recent direction of their organization, their home crowd has began meeting their Warriors team with contempt. Most recently when the crowd boo’ed one of Golden State’s owners off the court while he was presenting the retirement of Chris Mullen’s jersey.
There is speculation that Golden State is hanging them up for the year, and they accrued too many early wins so now they have to under perform for ping pong balls. The Hornets are already guaranteed ping pong balls, so they are playing to improve. This is just a bonus aspect of this match-up, I did now factor it quantitatively.
The biggest match-up issue in this game is that the Warriors will start their third string PG, Charles Jenkins, who has an absolutely horrid Roland rating of -17.9. The Hornets, on the other hand, have 2 capable PG’s. I would start Greivis Vasquez if I were them but, sadly, a lot of NBA coaches aren’t as statistically informed as I am. Also, I didn’t include it quantitatively, but Carl Landry’s return to the Hornets is significant.
Don’t worry that Ariza is out, his Roland rating is barely positive (+0.3), he is negligible. Same with Kaman, except Kaman’s Roldan rating is -3.0, he is a liability. Landry will get all the run he can take tonight, which is a positive thing.
I could see a large victory for the Hornets, you may want to split your bet with some Hornets ML.
Referee Assignments:
All power rankings are SOS weighted and split exclusively between home and road performance. Home performance has no effect on a team’s road power ranking and vice-versa.
Play:
New Orleans Hornets +2.5
Stake: 2.2 to win 2 units
The Hornets are my most counter-intuitive team, they are 10 full rating points better on the road. The Warriors are the same defenseless team both home and away. However, with the recent direction of their organization, their home crowd has began meeting their Warriors team with contempt. Most recently when the crowd boo’ed one of Golden State’s owners off the court while he was presenting the retirement of Chris Mullen’s jersey.
There is speculation that Golden State is hanging them up for the year, and they accrued too many early wins so now they have to under perform for ping pong balls. The Hornets are already guaranteed ping pong balls, so they are playing to improve. This is just a bonus aspect of this match-up, I did now factor it quantitatively.
The biggest match-up issue in this game is that the Warriors will start their third string PG, Charles Jenkins, who has an absolutely horrid Roland rating of -17.9. The Hornets, on the other hand, have 2 capable PG’s. I would start Greivis Vasquez if I were them but, sadly, a lot of NBA coaches aren’t as statistically informed as I am. Also, I didn’t include it quantitatively, but Carl Landry’s return to the Hornets is significant.
Don’t worry that Ariza is out, his Roland rating is barely positive (+0.3), he is negligible. Same with Kaman, except Kaman’s Roldan rating is -3.0, he is a liability. Landry will get all the run he can take tonight, which is a positive thing.
I could see a large victory for the Hornets, you may want to split your bet with some Hornets ML.
Referee Assignments:
- Tom Washington: 23-14 home team ATS record
- Eric Dalen: 21-16 home team ATS record
- Tre Maddox: 19-13 home team ATS record
